Hyping the AAP

The stunning victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP, or “Common Man’s” Party) in this year’s Delhi Assembly elections raises the question of whether this new party will transform Indian politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did just that last year, winning big in many northern and western Indian states while India’s erstwhile grand old party, the Indian National Congress seems to have gone into an extended decline. Many in the Indian media are now predicting an AAP wave that mirrors the BJP’s successes  in 2014.

In the days following U.S. President Barack Obama’s January 2014 visit to India, facilitated by Modi, the often-hyperactive Indian press predicted victory for BJP in the Delhi Assembly elections. Yet, mere days after this prediction, the AAP was projected to sweep not only Delhi but several other northern states in their next elections.

The AAP, led by a former civil servant, Arvind Kejriwal, was founded in 2012 to much fanfare as an anti-corruption movement. The AAP is a complex party, one that is likely to grow and resist dissolution due to its resilient leadership, but it is not likely to take power in more than a handful of states. Inexperience and infighting are problems that have frequently been noted, and could harm the party’s chances of large-scale growth across India. While the AAP formed the government of Delhi for 49 days from late 2013, it was unable to accomplish much and Kejriwal resigned instead of trying to prod India’s then Congress-led government into making policy changes.

The AAP’s biggest advantages – clean candidates, new blood, and comforting rhetoric – do not necessarily translate into better governance, and the party is thought to be weak on administrative competence. The AAP motto of bijli, sadak, pani (electricity, roads, water) appealed to many voters, especially those who traditionally voted for the Congress Party and its policies of subsidized food and electricity. However, the AAP has no fiscally responsible way of delivering on its promises. The party will either have to act irresponsibly or renege. The AAP has simply not thought  through the administrative implications of its rhetoric. These problems will prove to be inhibiting factors to future AAP growth. Additionally, many of the voters who back the AAP include politically fickle constituencies such as the poor, Muslims, and Christians who mainly voted for the AAP believing it had a better chance of beating the BJP than the Congress Party did. None of these groups have a reason to vote for the AAP in the long term, and thus the AAP has no true loyalists.

With the exception of the state of Punjab, where the party has a broader presence, the AAP’s prospects outside Delhi are modest. The AAP will likely do best in large cities. Younger members of the educated urban middle class are likely to be pro-development but more secularly oriented, making them less likely to vote for the BJP, as older members of the middle class have.

The AAP will succeed in cities not just because of the backing of the urban middle class, but also because the party appeals to the urban poor, a relatively new group in terms of electoral importance. While the Congress Party has been the traditional choice of the poor, the AAP has done a good job articulating and connecting with the concerns of the urban segment. While both the BJP and Congress have designed policies for the poor in general, many of these policies target India’s rural dwellers. The urban poor in India have a different set of concerns including public services and sanitation. It remains to be seen if the AAP can hold this vote, but even if it can, this group is dwarfed by rural voters, who tend to support the Congress Party. Moreover, the BJP is still the party of development in the eyes of businesses and industrialists and holds the affection of the Hindu right.

So while the AAP may do well in other large cities in India in the future, none of these victories will necessarily translate on the state or national level. Delhi is the only large city that is its own political entity: the National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi. Other cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Bangalore are capitals of heavily populated, but rural states, so it is unlikely that the AAP will come to power in any state except Punjab and the city of Delhi.

The AAP should be cautious about expansion before it has had the chance to hone its policies and administrative skills and to develop a national strategy. India’s states all have different class, caste, religious, and economic balances that make it hard for the AAP’s politics to resonate as is throughout India. The party made this mistake in India’s 2014 elections when it tried to compete with both the BJP and Congress Party throughout India but only ended up winning four seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s Parliament.

For now, it will be interesting to see how the AAP evolves and matures as it runs Delhi. The party won 67 out of 70 seats in the Assembly in Delhi and has free rein to run the city until the next election in 2020. These five years can either make or break the party. Its performance in running Delhi will be a litmus test for its broader competence. One of the more interesting things to look out for is if the AAP will be able to gain statehood for the National Capital Territory of Delhi, which is currently a Union Territory and not a full state. The BJP has also expressed interest in the idea. It would be best for Delhi, and India, if the BJP and AAP found ways to work together rather than spending years obstructing each other’s policies.