Repairing a Partnership

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and the country’s chief executive Abdullah Abdullah spent five days in late March in the United States, primarily in Washington D.C. Meeting with all the regular suspects – President Barack Obama, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter Secretary of State John Kerry, the National Security Council – as well delivering an address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress, Ghani has done everything he can to convey the message that he is not his predecessor.

Ghani and Abdullah prefaced their visit with an op-ed in the Washington Post. “Our ultimate goal is self-reliance,” they said, but Afghanistan is far from self-reliant in either security or economic terms. Politically, Afghanistan is on new ground, but the alliances holding the central government together are far from firm or permanent.

Six months after Ghani took office and he still lacks a full cabinet of ministers. Reportedly the president and chief executive are often at odds, with Ghani consolidating his power by pushing aside Abdullah’s picks for various posts. The two are traveling together in the U.S. and it will be interesting to see how their interactions with each other are reported, as therein lies Afghanistan’s future. If Ghani and Abdullah cannot make the national unity government work, Afghanistan’s long-term political stability will continue to be uncertain.

Economically, Afghanistan is in a bad position. Last year the Post reported that Afghanistan had a budget shortfall of nearly 20 percent and according to the World Bank would need more than $7 billion annually, for the next decade to cover the costs of running the country, more than three times the more optimistic estimated annual revenues. Meanwhile, corruption skims billions from the aid money flowing into Afghanistan. In their op-ed Afghanistan’s leaders said that “we need know-how, not charity.” They ask for American corporations, nonprofits and start-ups to help sow clean, efficient business practices in the country. Afghanistan has potential – natural resources and a young, vibrant population – but that potential for economic development is hobbled by the security situation.

Since the withdrawal began, Afghan casualties have increased. This is in part a result of the planned transfer of combat operations to Afghan forces but it may be more than just combat casualties. According to the revised March SIGAR report, more than 15,000 Afghan National Army (ANA) personnel were dropped from the rolls between February and November 2014, for everything from death to desertion. Reporting errors further cloud the picture and as the weather warms in Afghanistan, the fighting season will begin in earnest.

Although Obama slipped in speaking during a press conference following their meeting – referring to Ghani as Karzai – Afghanistan’s president has convinced many that he is nothing like his predecessor.

Jeff Eggers, special assistant to the president for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told reporters in a conference call that “This is a different relationship than we had under President Karzai.” He said the relationship was “clearly more cooperative and better."

At the Pentagon, Ghani thanked American troops for their service. “It’s a rare pleasure to be with you today … to say thank you on behalf of a grateful nation to people in this building and the larger U.S. community who have sacrificed continuously since September 11th to bring us freedom and hope,” Ghani said to those gathered at the Pentagon on March 23. He went on to repeatedly reiterate this message of gratitude at each stop on the trip, even extending his thanks to the American taxpayer.

A serious question hung in the air for the first two days of Ghani’s visit: Will the U.S. push back its drawdown timetables?

After the meeting, Obama announced that the U.S. would indeed maintain its current troop levels, around 9,800, through 2015 rather than drawing down to 5,500 as previously planned. But the larger drawdown plan, to “normalize” the U.S. military presence by the end of 2016 remains intact. Essentially, Obama has granted Afghanistan a reprieve, hitting pause on the withdrawal without altering the overarching reality.

“This flexibility reflects our reinvigorated partnership with Afghanistan,” Obama said.

That reinvigorated partnership, however, also entails additional deployments for American soldiers. Perhaps this is why Ghani emphasized his gratitude for the sacrifices of American soldiers. This aspect, more than the change of plans, the smudging of withdrawal timetables, will be domestically contentious. But Obama isn’t looking at an election, he’s looking at a legacy. The war that candidate Obama once called the “good war” is not over but the U.S. may now have a willing partner in Kabul.