70 Years After the War, What Should Abe Say?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been busy preparing a speech, but this speech will not be delivered next week or even next month – this speech is set for August 15, 2015, the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. Abe even formed a 16-member advisory committee to help him draft his speech. It is quite unusual – almost unparalleled -- for a leader to devote so much attention to a single speech so many months in advance. But the stakes are high: Abe’s speech has the potential to either pave the way for reconciliation with Korea and China or to inflict serious damage on relations with Japan’s neighbors, damage that will last long after his government’s term has expired.

Unfortunately, 70 years later, the ghosts of war still haunt the peoples of East Asia. Today’s tension and conflict between the countries of the region are fundamentally an extension of their incomplete postwar reconciliation.

Japan’s neighbors, particularly China and Korea, are closely watching what Abe will say, keen to see if he will backtrack on the Japanese government’s position on the past conflict. Since coming to power, Abe has never clearly admitted to Japan’s invasion of Asia and colonial rule during World War II. At the same time, he is pushing forward a revision to the Japanese constitution regarding Japan’s military abilities. Since consolidating his power base in December’s election, many wonder what an emboldened Abe may say. There is concern that Abe will backtrack from the basic principles of apology that past Japanese leaders have made in similar commemoration speeches in 1995 and 2005.

If Abe’s speech fails to follow the speeches of previous Japanese leaders and instead takes a stance hinting at denial on Japan’s past, it will worsen tensions in East Asia. China has been preparing a major military review for the same anniversary and has invited Obama, Putin, and many other state leaders to attend, a deliberate move to show how seriously it feels about this anniversary. To make the speech an effective tool for reconciliation among China, Korea, and Japan, I can offer Abe the following three suggestions.

Attitude Is More Important Than Words

It was reported that the Abe administration has already consulted many of Japan’s top scholars regarding the contents of the speech. However, I would say that paying too much attention to the words of the speech is the wrong approach. For this speech sincerity is the key, as the main audience for the speech are victims of the war. There is plenty of time for Abe to carefully construct a beautiful oration, but more important is that the speech itself conveys the true sincerity and understanding of the Japanese and the prime minister himself. Simply, it is about whether Abe is genuine in what he says – it’s about knowing and understanding past actions, giving a clear and true apology for Japan’s wartime crimes, and reflecting upon them. There are many ways recent Japanese politicians have worked around using the terms “apology” and “aggression”; this is why attitude is paramount in this particular speech. To put it simply, if it is not possible for Abe to say these two words, then it would be better for him to not say anything at all.

Post-War Orientation Is The Wrong Track

In a recent press interview, Abe said that his speech will be future-oriented, and his top assistants mentioned that the speech is to focus on presenting Japan’s postwar transformation and Japan’s contributions to international society as a peace-loving country. In a normal situation, focusing on the future is the correct attitude, but for this speech emphasizing the future is the wrong track. Japan and its neighbors have never achieved complete reconciliation in the 70 years since the end of the war. Without sincere reflection on the past there won’t be real reconciliation, and without reconciliation the future for relations between Japan and its neighbors hardly looks bright.

There is no doubt that Japan has made invaluable contributions to the international community and has already transformed from a war machine to a peace-loving nation. However, the Japanese should also realize there is a major contradiction between self-image and the perceptions held by Japan’s neighbors. Where the Japanese consider the wartime wrongdoings as acts conducted by their ancestors and having no connection to the current populace, Japan’s neighbors see this in a completely different light. They view a sincere apology and reflection by the Japanese government and people as an important precondition for normalization and reconciliation. Focusing his speech on Japan’s postwar contributions rather than reflecting on past wrongs, Abe may provoke anger from the overseas audience. There is no point in Abe shining a light on Japan’s postwar accomplishments without first addressing Japan’s victims with an admission of guilt and remorse.

Commit to a Peaceful Future

A very important part of Abe’s speech should address doubts about his administration’s vision for the future of Japan as a pacifist nation. The government’s campaign for constitutional reform has generated many interpretations and raised concerns in some quarters. Some Chinese are interpreting the proposed changes to Article 9 of Japan’s constitution as a revival of militarism. In his speech Abe should use clear language to explain to the international community what kind of country he envisions Japan becoming, especially as regards the commitment to future international peace. Abe must make clear to his audience just what kind of nation he wants Japan to be.

Delivering this speech will certainly be a difficult task for Abe – not in formulating the language or speaking the phrases, but because of the lack of consensus within Japanese society regarding the nation’s past. The outside world should perhaps subdue its expectations for this speech, but for Abe, after his recent consolidation of power, this may be a good opportunity to write a new chapter with Japan’s neighbors and reopen the unfinished reconciliation process. To do that, sincerity is the key.