Trouble in the Junta?

As Thailand’s military government pushes back its timetable for holding new elections deeper into 2016, speculation is mounting about the political significance of security force rotations due to take effect on October 1. Recent reports have portrayed competition for the top spots in the army and police as a tight pair of two-way races, with Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and powerful Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwan believed to be backing competing candidates.

Assistant Army Chief General Preecha Chan-ocha, Prayuth’s younger brother, and fellow Assistant Chief General Terrachai Nakwanich, a known Prawit protégé, are viewed as the frontrunners for what has traditionally been the security forces’ most powerful post. While both soldiers are firmly pro-coup, their bids are viewed by some as reflective of a budding power struggle between Prayuth and Prawit over their current and future political roles.

Preecha’s star has risen in line with his elder brother’s ascendency. A former helicopter pilot, Preecha until recently served as 3rd Army Region commander, where he oversaw security in the country’s drug-infested northern region. A 35-year military veteran, Preecha has served mostly in civil roles and possessed no intelligence or operations experience prior to his recent command-level promotions, according to a Thai military insider familiar with his career path.

Local news reports quoted Prayuth, who served as army commander from 2010-14 and led last year’s coup, saying that he will not push his sibling’s promotion to the army’s top spot. Bangkok-based diplomats say Prayuth has lobbied hard for Preecha’s recent rapid advancement and view his statements of neutrality as public posturing to preempt criticism of nepotism. One envoy who closely monitors Thailand’s military affairs believes Prayuth may exercise his authoritarian rule even more forcefully if Preecha becomes commander of the army.

Other analysts wonder if Prayuth would be emboldened to indefinitely delay elections for reasons of security with the confidence his younger brother was in charge of enforcing the postponement. While Prayuth has insisted he will not cling to his coup-installed power, there is widespread speculation he aims to hold the premiership for at least two more years, a fathomable scenario as controversy mounts around the drafting and passage of a new, less democratic constitution and the sensitive royal succession draws nearer.

Prawit has reportedly chafed at Prayuth’s move to lift martial law and invoke the interim charter’s Article 44, a legal provision that has strongly concentrated power in the premier’s hands. Before Prayuth was appointed prime minister, there was widespread speculation that Prawit coveted the job. While Prayuth serves as the junta’s titular head, Prawit, also a former army commander, is considered Prayuth’s senior in Thai military culture and is believed to command stronger loyalty among the rank and file, including among elite royal units.  

Teerachai’s candidacy is bolstered by his past service to the 21st Infantry Regiment Queen’s Guard, an elite force tasked with protecting the royal family during times of crisis. Prayuth, Prawit and incumbent army commander and Deputy Defense Minister General Udomdej Sitabutr are all alumni of the arch-royalist unit, known popularly as the “Eastern Tigers.” As 1st Army Region commander in charge of Bangkok security during last year’s street protests and putsch, Teerachai headed the junta’s “Peace Maintaining Force” which has proven instrumental in suppressing resistance to the coup.

The Prayuth-Prawit competition has fed into frequent rumors of a possible counter-coup. Bangkok-based diplomats, however, downplay the risk of a schism at a time the royalist junta aims to institutionalize a long-term political role for the military while suppressing anti-coup sentiment among groups loyal to self-exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his coup-ousted sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. Pro-Thaksin soldiers in key positions under Yingluck have been systematically sidelined since the coup and represent, at best, a marginal threat to Prayuth’s rule, according to analysts and diplomats monitoring the situation.

The more relevant counter-coup chatter stems from the rival royalist Wong Thewan faction of the 1st Infantry Division King’s Guard. Since the 2006 coup, the faction’s elite family soldiers have been consistently bypassed for top promotions in favor of Queen’s Guard members. Although Wong Thewan soldiers were instrumental in last year’s putsch, they were denied control of combat units at the 2014 reshuffle. Justice Minister General Paiboon Koomchaya, Wong Thewan’s top soldier in the junta, was not seriously considered for army commander despite serving as an assistant commander under Prayuth. Some analysts feel Prayuth needs to promote more soldiers from the disgruntled faction in order to maintain future stability.   

The politics behind the appointment of a new national police chief are murkier. Although the next chief will be nominated by incumbent Police General Somyos Poompunmuang, Prayuth and Prawit are expected to exert influence over the selection board. Reports indicate the race is between Pol Gen Chakthip Chaijinda, viewed as Prayuth’s preferred candidate, and Pol Gen Pongsapat Pongcharoen, a Police Academy classmate of Somyos and known Thaksin loyalist who unsuccessfully ran for Bangkok governor under Thaksin's Pheu Thai party banner in 2013.

Prayuth has sought to purge Thaksin’s deep influence in the police through transfers and anti-corruption measures. Days after the coup, Chakthip was appointed to replace Metropolitan Police Bureau chief Kamrongwit Thoopkrachang, a known Thaksin loyalist who, until his demotion, kept a signed portrait of himself with Thaksin in his office. Chakthip held the same post under a Democrat Party-led government in 2010 and served with Prayuth in cracking down on pro-Thaksin “Red Shirt” street protests. If appointed, he would be expected to ferret out Thaksin loyalists and bring the police more firmly under junta control. 

Prawit, who served as army commander under Thaksin, was instrumental in Somyos’ appointment to police chief and is known to have a strong sense of mid- and high-ranking police officials’ connections and leanings. That insider knowledge derives from his younger brother Patcharawat Wongsuwan, a former national police chief under the Thaksin-aligned Samak Sundaravej government. While Somyos has indicated that he believes Pongsapat is qualified to become police chief, his appointment would inevitably be viewed as a concession to Thaksin. 

One Bangkok-based diplomat says that, based on his embassy’s intelligence, Prawit maintains a line to Thaksin, a personal connection that has underpinned the post-coup accommodation that has kept the self-exiled former premier quiet and on the political sidelines. When Prayuth threatened earlier this month to strip Thaksin of his formal police title for insinuating in a press interview that the royal advisory Privy Council backed his coup, Prawit assured Somyos that he could safely put the issue on a back burner, the diplomat said.Whether Prawit gives Somyos a similar nod to nominate Pongsapat over Chakthip will come down to a wider negotiation between Prayuth and Prawit over appointments, power-sharing and how best to maintain future stability.