Nepal and the Politics of Earthquakes

Shortly after the 7.8 magnitude earthquake on April 25 that killed nearly 9,000 people, Nepal dropped off the world’s headlines quite quickly. The international media moved on to cover other disasters, of which there were plenty around the world.

Yet the disaster is not over for the 3 million affected people in Central Nepal. Nearly 700,000 homes were destroyed, most of them in remote mountain villages. The survivors have lived through four months of monsoon rains in tents and makeshift shelters. They are still waiting to rebuild more permanent homes before a bitter Himalayan winter sets in, but the government in Kathmandu has been so preoccupied with politics that its reconstruction aid package has reached none of the families affected.

Nepal’s political leaders, who have been deadlocked in negotiations over a new constitution for the past six years, were quite literally shaken up by the earthquake. Drafting a new constitution is the last remaining element in the peace process that ended the Maoist conflict in 2006.

Criticized heavily for bungling earthquake relief, the government tried to restore its image by putting constitution-writing on the “fast track.” But that effort has led to an eruption of violence, in which 40 people have been killed, over future federal demarcations, mainly along the plains bordering India. The constitution was formally adopted on September 20 despite the protests.

The earthquake has now been fully eclipsed by politics. The plight of the survivors has dropped off the headlines not just in the international media, but also within Nepal.

The April 25 earthquake gave Nepal’s politics a mighty jolt and woke up the rulers in Kathmandu. But the politicians also wanted to use the earthquake as an excuse to rush the constitution so that they could all get on board with a government of national unity. Given past mismanagement and corruption, many think the politicians just want to get their hands in the honeypot and share in the spoils.

Two months after the earthquake, on June 25, Nepal’s neighbors India and China, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, and the United States pledged nearly $4.4 billion in aid for earthquake relief. Most of that aid will be used to repair destroyed infrastructure, homes and offices. The money is contingent on the formation of an independent Reconstruction Authority. But the appointment of a CEO to head that agency was mired in politics, with rival parties lobbying for their own candidates.

Last month, the Cabinet finally selected Govinda Raj Pokhrel, a German-educated bureaucrat who heads the National Planning Commission. He was responsible for preparing a comprehensive post-earthquake needs assessment report, which would serve as the blueprint for relief disbursement. Nearly everyone agrees that Pokhrel is competent and is the right candidate for the job.

However, the decree to set up the Reconstruction Authority needed to be ratified by parliament within six weeks. Instead it was allowed to lapse due to filibustering by the opposition Maoist party. So Pokhrel now is the CEO of a relief agency that does not legally exist.

Meanwhile, up in the mountains people are patiently waiting for a promised reconstruction package that includes a Rs 200,000 ($2,000) grant and subsidized loans. The rubble hasn't been cleared in most towns. Reconstruction cannot start in many places without demolition, and Nepal has neither the equipment nor the expertise to remove damaged concrete structures. Many are being brought down with picks and hammers.

In Dolakha District, which was hit by the 7.3 magnitude May 12 aftershock, the enormous task of rebuilding hasn’t even begun. Of Dolakha’s 59 hospitals and health posts, 53 are destroyed. All 363 schools in the district have been destroyed. Five months after the quake, 80 percent of the inhabitants of towns and villages still live in tents. Buildings along the highway look like a pile of Lego blocks. In Sindhupalchok District, which accounted for more than half the fatalities, all hospitals and rural health posts came down.

Across the 14 most affected districts some 8,000 schools were damaged or destroyed, and more than 27,000 classrooms collapsed. The earthquake left behind more than 2,000 widows and 350 orphans. Some of Nepal’s ethnic groups like Tamangs and Newars were disproportionately affected. Many of the temples and monuments in Kathmandu Valley were completely destroyed.

Popular trekking destinations like Langtang National Park, the Manaslu Trail, Tsum Valley and the Rolwaling Region were also hit hard. Many hiking trails have been destroyed by the earthquake and monsoon landslides, putting the livelihoods of those who depended on tourism at risk.

Several large hydropower projects that would have alleviated Nepal’s crippling electricity shortage have been damaged and their completion dates have been pushed back up to two years.

Nepal’s economy is heavily dependent on migration, with nearly 18 percent of the population working in India, the Gulf, and Malaysia. Migrant workers send back an estimated $5 billion a year to Nepal. The earthquake is expected to increase the numbers of people going overseas to earn money in order to rebuild their homes.

The disaster also offered proof of Nepal’s lack of preparedness, which in turn was a result of political and governance failure over the past ten years. Despite the death and destruction, Nepal got off lightly this time. The earthquake was a 7.8, and not the 8.5 that had been predicted. The epicenter was 80 km away from Kathmandu and in a relatively sparsely-populated area. The earthquake struck on a Saturday, saving the lives of tens of thousands of schoolchildren. The mobile network survived largely intact, electricity was restored in Kathmandu within two days, highways blocked by landslides were cleared quickly, and the country’s only international airport in Kathmandu remained operational throughout.

Preparing for the ‘Big One’

However, better readiness would have saved many of the lives that were lost. For the past seven years, an international consortium of donors has been trying to urge the Nepalese government to plan for the “Big One.” They urged the country to set up a Disaster Management Authority to oversee preparedness and contingency planning, as well as coordinate rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. Distracted by constitution making, the bill to set up the authority languished in parliament. If it had been in place, not only would Nepal have been much more prepared but the rescue and relief efforts would also have been swifter and smoother.

For about 10 years before the earthquake, scientists and international agencies had been warning the government of Nepal to step up preparedness, set up the Authority, and start retrofitting schools and hospitals. Alarm bells had been ringing for years about just how unprepared we were to handle a disaster that everyone knew was coming one day. During the 1996-2006 conflict, Nepalis had to deal with the day-to-day disaster of war, and earthquakes were not a priority. Since 2006, the constitution, peace process, and power games have preoccupied politicians and the media, leaving them too distracted to plan for a future earthquake.

Even so, the awareness campaign was starting to have an effect. Funds were being pledged, exercises held, contingency plans drawn up. Some communities had started stockpiling emergency equipment and positioning supplies. We were preparing to be prepared when the earthquake struck on April 25.

Despite the government’s lapses on many fronts, this was a disaster that would have overwhelmed most countries. Assessment of damage and logistics were the main problems in the first week, since the worst-affected areas were so remote. The Nepal Army only had one large helicopter at that time; fortunately the Indian and Chinese air forces and the U.S. Marines flew in helicopters to ferry relief arriving at Kathmandu Airport to remote areas. Five months later, the World Food Program has five helicopters to take food and relief to the mountains. However, waning international attention means that the UN agency is running out of money and may have to wind down its operation.

There were very few instances of people dying due to lack of emergency medical care; 3,000 injured were airlifted to hospitals and nearly all got free treatment. The logistics of food and medicine delivery has been relatively well managed. Despite the turf battle at the national level, local government units coordinated aid well. But relief delivery could have been better managed if there had been elected and therefore more locally accountable village and district councils. Nepal hasn’t had local elections since 1999.

The earthquake also offers the opportunity to build back better, not just in the affected areas but also in the rest of the country. Seismologists predict that the next big earthquake will hit western Nepal, where there hasn’t been a major quake to release built-up tectonic pressures for more than 500 years. The National Planning Commission has drawn up policy guidelines which emphasize the use of local materials for reconstruction with training in reinforced masonry. The Commission hopes to create at least 200,000 jobs, providing employment for Nepal’s younger generation rather than sending them abroad for work. The Commission’s motto is to coordinate centrally, but implement locally.

For all this to happen the Reconstruction Authority needs to be up and running. And for that, politicians have to stop meddling. Now that the constitution is out of the way, there is going to be a new government that can hopefully be more proactive in medium and long-term reconstruction. The plans are in place, the government knows what needs to be done, the money is there, and the survivors are waiting. It’s time to rise above everyday politics so that the Reconstruction Authority can start its work. We are already running five months late.