Malcolm Turnbull: Reformer?

When Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull ousted his predecessor Tony Abbott in September – making the latter the third Australian prime minister in five years to be deposed in a party room coup – he argued that he was compelled to do so because of Abbott’s poor polling.

Tony Abbott’s tenure at the top was marked by gaffes and misfires, perhaps most hilariously when he knighted Prince Phillip at the start of the year. Many of his problems, and certainly the knighthood debacle, can be pinned on Abbott’s politics: The man sits far to the right of most Australians, in a world where climate change is “crap” and gays are “threatening.” Turnbull, by contrast, believes in precisely the kind of comfortably centrist policies that afford crossover appeal, and which could potentially translate into an extended stay in power.

Turnbull is also ambitious. Famously so.  Combine this with his impressive post-coup support and it didn’t take long for some big talk to appear – in the media and from the new prime minister himself – about what he might achieve.

Here, though, Turnbull faces a problem. Abbott may have been out of step with the majority of the Australian electorate, but he does have a constituency within his own party, the Liberal right-wing. This is a large chunk of the party that ranges all the way out to the likes of Cory Bernardi, he of the gay marriage equals bestiality equation. This grouping was not at all happy at the ouster of their champion, and was quick to warn Turnbull that they would not tolerate deviations from the Abbott program. Turnbull also needs to worry about the Liberal Party’s Coalition partner, the rural and conservative Nationals.

So while Australian voters may be eagerly anticipating a more moderate direction, Turnbull must tread very carefully. Clearly, Turnbull’s top priority will be to win an election, preferably convincingly, which will give him a mandate and strengthen his hand considerably. In this, he has some good fortune, as the opposition Labor Party has yet to fully recover from its own internecine warfare and its leader, Bill Shorten is unpopular. An election is due next year.

In the meantime, Turnbull is playing his cards carefully, and by and large well. Take a wedge issue like same-sex marriage, an example of the electorate being ahead of much of the ruling party, with polls showing Australians strongly in favor of marriage equality The Abbott government sought to appease voters by offering a plebiscite on the matter at some undetermined time in the future. Now there is talk of a “yes” vote in a plebiscite  in 2017 being the trigger for a marriage reform law. Suddenly what once looked like a delaying tactic by a prime minister staunchly opposed to marriage equality now looks like a mechanism to get the amendment passed by a prime minister in favor of it. But questioned about the plebiscite in parliament, Turnbull was evasive, a sign of the opposition that remains within his own party.

On terrorism and Australia’s brutal asylum seeker policy, two issues that win votes for conservatives, Turnbull has been toning down the rhetoric – we’re not hearing much about “death cults” these days – but there is little for him to gain from a radical shift in direction beyond walking back some of his predecessor’s enthusiasm. Critics can only hope that he addresses the most egregious aspects, such as the abuses reported at the Nauru detention facility.

Climate Change

Perhaps the trickiest issue for the prime minister is climate change, all the more so with the Paris summit fast approaching. This was the issue that brought Turnbull undone when he was leader of the opposition in 2009. He favors tougher action on emissions, many of his party do not. Under Abbott, Australia put forward a “direct action” scheme, largely involving government payouts to companies that cut emissions. Abbott’s recalcitrance on the issue marked Australia as the bad boy of climate change, which has led to diplomatic awkwardness, exemplified at last year’s G20 Summit in Brisbane, when U.S. President Barack Obama made some pointed remarks.

The Liberal Party right wing are adamant in their opposition to tougher action on climate change, and so Turnbull has been in the uncomfortable position of defending a policy he once called “bullshit.”

However, while the prime minister may not yet be able to reverse Abbott’s policy directly, he can at least signal a sea-change in government mindset. He sent that signal this month when he appointed as Australia’s new Chief Scientist Dr. Alan Finkel, who has been outspoken on the need for action in tackling climate change. Accompanied by his statement that he is “the prime minister that says that science is right at the center and the heart of our national agenda. Not just that, it’s at the heart and very center of our future,” Turnbull could hardly draw a clearer distinction from his predecessor.

All well and good, but a press conference accompanying the appointment made clear the fine line the prime minister is walking. Finkel favors zero coal, but standing next to him the prime minister had to given an awkward response to calls for a moratorium on new coal mines and mine expansions. His words won plaudits from the mining industry but failed to impress much of the rest of the population. “Turnbull fails debate, economic and science with dumb coal defense” ran a headline to an article by Dr. Richard Denniss, chief economist at The Australia Institute. Ouch.

So where does that leave Turnbull, a man who clearly wants to be a transformative figure in Australian history? Obviously, taking the long view, while for now focusing on issues that are less likely to exercise the right wing.

This apparently includes tax reform, with Turnbull talking of the possibility of raising Australia’s value added tax, known as the Goods and Services Tax, while reducing other tax rates. The government is also considering amendments to superannuation tax concessions that favor the wealthy. In another move, Turnbull has shelved his predecessor’s highly unpopular plan to let universities set their own fees.

Less divisive economics issues probably represent safer ground for the prime minister, and are at any rate important given growing evidence of China’s slowing economy and the concomitant end to the golden era of commodities that has benefited Australia over the last two decades.

In the meantime, Turnbull is enjoying a robust honeymoon period with the electorate, which he is carefully cultivating with his emphasis on stylistic differences from his predecessor. If that continues, and if it is buttressed by an election mandate, then the prime minister may well be able to be bolder in steering his party back to the center. For now, despite the shackles ostensibly placed on him by Abbott backers, he has already managed to present himself as a very different leader.