A Northeast Asian Switzerland

It’s never been easy for Mongolia to draw headlines or attention. After all, sandwiched between Russia and China, two nuclear-armed behemoths and UN Security Council Permanent Members, Mongolia has always been diplomatically isolated. It also shares Northeast Asia with Japan (Asia’s second-largest economy and richest democracy), South Korea (an economic powerhouse in its own right and a U.S. ally), and North Korea (a hermit state led by an irascible regime).

Despite these circumstances, Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj has managed to find innovative ways to turn Mongolia into a globally relevant strategic and diplomatic actor. In fact, speaking at this year’s United Nations General Assembly, Elbegdorj made an important declaration that could see his country take on a new sort of relevance in Northeast Asia.

Elbegdorj effectively declared his intention to see Mongolia emerge as a Switzerland of sorts in a region fraught with diplomatic misgivings over history and hard power intentions. Speaking at the General Assembly, he noted that “Mongolia has pursued a peaceful, open, multi-pillar foreign policy,” referencing the country’s moderately successful “Third Neighbor” policy, which sought to build bilateral ties with states other than its two massive neighbors.

As a result of Mongolia’s “multi-pillar foreign policy,” Elbegdorj continued, his country would adopt a “state of permanent neutrality.”

“I am convinced that Mongolia’s status of permanent neutrality will contribute to the strengthening of peace, security, and development in our region and the world at large,” he noted.

The Mongolian president expanded on an idea he had first presented in early September 2015. In a lengthy, multi-part essay on the question of Mongolian neutrality, Elbegdorj demonstrated that he had carefully considered the ramifications of a permanent neutrality declaration. Indeed, his essay began with a somber couplet on the topic: “Mongolia as a neutral state. I have long pondered about this issue.”

In his essay, the Mongolian president notes that neutrality had long been a hotly debated foreign policy issue in Mongolia, making it seem as if his government’s decision to declare permanent neutrality resolves a long-standing question for Mongolia’s foreign policy. In reality, before Elbegdorj’s September essay on the subject, the issue of neutrality was not on the top of the Mongolian policy agenda or part of the country’s public discourse on its place in the world. Nevertheless, Elbegdorj’s essay on the topic outlines much of the intellectual rationale for the neutrality decision.

Commentary on Elbegdorj’s declaration at the United Nations has been nearly non-existent, short of a few reflections by scholars who specifically study the country and its affairs in the region. A neutrality declaration in Northeast Asia should merit closer examination. So, what can be made of this bold new diplomatic declaration by the Mongolian president?

Observers of Mongolia’s approach to international politics – who may have been familiar with the country’s “Third Neighbor” policy, which saw Ulaanbaatar build close ties with countries across the globe – may see the neutrality declaration as Elbegdorj’s attempt to take the country’s “Third Neighbor” logic to its conclusion. Permanent neutrality, however, is a strong declaration.

“Neutrality,” in international diplomacy, was formalized in the 1856 Paris Declaration and the Hague Convention of 1907. The primary benefit of neutrality for the state adopting it is territorial integrity: Neutral states should not be invaded nor their territory used by warring states to stage military operations. The neutral state, in return, must stay out of all international conflicts and, if it does adopt a position on the conflict, it must do so without bias to any of the parties involved. Mongolia joins a short list of states including Switzerland, which will celebrate 200 years of continuous neutrality in November, and Turkmenistan, which will celebrate 20 years of neutrality in December.

There are a range of reasons why Elbegdorj’s government may have decided that now was the time to evolved the “Third Neighbor” approach to the country’s global diplomacy to full-on neutrality.

What Will the Neighbors Think?

First, the neutrality declaration would not have occurred had Ulaanbaatar seen any reason to believe that either Moscow or Beijing would have taken exception. China has always shown some ideological affinity, going back to the Mao Zedong years, toward non-alignment and non-interference--which are, in part, enshrined in the country’s famous “Five Principles.” Thus, there is nothing ideologically worrying about the Mongolia declaration for Beijing.

In realpolitik terms, a neutral Mongolia offers a pleasant guarantee that Ulaanbaatar won’t become too close to Washington or to Moscow. Mongolia engages in military exercises with the United States on a regular basis now, and China has always had some degree of trepidation that Moscow could tilt the balance in Ulaanbaatar in its favor, winning a buffer state potentially hostile to Chinese interests.

In Russia, the neutrality declaration will also be welcomed, with the buffer state logic heading the other way: Putin is keen to see Mongolia remain free of undue Chinese influence. For Mongolia, trade and investment relations with both Russia and China should remain unhindered by this neutrality declaration. As Julian Dierkes, a Mongolia expert, has noted, the neutrality declaration should also put an end to Russian and Chinese pressure over Mongolia’s accession into a customs union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, respectively.

Beyond helping Mongolia balance relations with its two large neighbors, permanent neutrality could help it accelerate certain other aspects of its international position. One area where Elbegdorj has drawn attention is his outreach to the insular regime in Pyongyang. The Mongolian president visited Pyongyang in October 2013, engaging transparently with the regime in North Korea (though he likely did not meet Kim Jong-un).

Neutrality could help make Mongolia a more credible interlocutor with North Korea. Indeed, Ulaanbaatar could play a crucial role in forging some sort of diplomatic understanding between the United States and Pyongyang on the necessary preconditions for a return to the long-stalled Six-Party Talks, for instance. Neutral states often play host to difficult multilateral and bilateral talks between states with sharp differences. Mongolia could become that state in Northeast Asia.

It’s unclear how tenable permanent neutrality will be for Mongolia. Setting aside its uncomfortable geopolitical position between Russia and China, permanent neutrality will need to outlast Elbegdorj and remain robust in the face of external pressure. Mongolia lacks the culturally ingrained notion of neutrality that Switzerland, which has exercised the concept in some form since the 1648 Peace of Westphalia, enjoys. Mongolian legislators and public figures have taken exception to the country’s foreign policy, with many calling for an outright tilt toward Russia. Permanent neutrality cannot tolerate eventual vacillation pending a leadership change.

Mongolia’s decision to declare permanent neutrality is a significant development in the Northeast Asian diplomatic landscape, despite the near-zero attention it has received so far. Northeast Asia is a tough region for a state like Mongolia, hoping to carve out a diplomatic niche that grants it some relevance, but with its declaration of permanent neutrality, Ulaanbaatar is taking a bold step in a new direction. Time will tell if Mongolia’s decision to embrace permanent neutrality will transform it into a new Switzerland in Asia or if it will continue to fly under the radar in a region crowded with regional and global powers.