Suing for Peace and Perpetuating War in Myanmar

On the day Myanmar voted resoundingly in favor of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party, a popular signal against the continuation of military proxy rule, government forces launched a massive armed offensive against ethnic rebels in eastern Shan State. The fighting was a stark reminder that despite the NLD’s firm mandate the military will maintain a high degree of autonomy in the country’s new quasi-democratic political paradigm.

Suu Kyi’s win has raised hopes that an NLD government will bring peace to the country’s many war-ravaged ethnic territories, where debilitating civil conflicts have raged on-and-off for decades. On the hustings, Suu Kyi vowed to establish a Second Panglong Conference, reference to an unrealized autonomy agreement reached between her independence hero father, Aung San, and ethnic Chin, Kachin and Shan groups in 1947. The NLD’s party manifesto promotes the creation of a federal union, a long-time demand of ethnic leaders flouted by successive military governments.

In renewing her father’s pledge, the 70-year-old Suu Kyi insinuated that an NLD-led government would offer better terms than outgoing President Thein Sein’s recently inked “national ceasefire agreement.” That pact, signed with only eight ethnic groups three weeks before the polls, failed to include major rebel armies, including the Kachin Independence Organization, the United Wa State Army and the Shan State Army-North. Analysts believe Suu Kyi’s counteroffer upended Thein Sein’s bid to cinch a more comprehensive agreement, which his Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) had hoped to translate into votes. Myanmar expert Bertil Lintner estimates the agreement left some 40,000 rebels outside its ceasefire.  

It’s unclear if Suu Kyi and the NLD will sustain or scrap Thein Sein’s partial peace initiative. Neither Suu Kyi nor any NLD member was present at the ceasefire’s formal signing ceremony on October 15 in Naypyidaw. On the occasion, Thein Sein referred to the partial pact as a “historic gift” to the nation, even as the military ramped up pulverizing offenses against non-signatory groups in Kachin and Shan States. The ceasefire agreement is expected to pass the USDP-dominated parliament soon, now in its final session before the NLD forms a government in early 2016.

Both signatory and non-signatory armed groups appealed to Suu Kyi after the NLD’s election win. Parties to Thein Sein’s ceasefire have said they plan to consult Suu Kyi as they map codes of conduct and other implementing guidelines of the deal before the NLD formally takes power. Insurgent groups outside of the pact, namely the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army, issued a November 18 statement saying they are “ready to join hands” with the NLD to end hostilities and form a “genuine federal union state.” Even the narcotics-trafficking United Wa State Army stated its support for a "smooth" democratic transition.

Suu Kyi, a former Nobel Peace Prize winner, will have strong leverage across Myanmar’s seven ethnic states, representing about 30 percent of the national population. The NLD overwhelmed nearly all of the ethnic-based parties that stood on election day, an indication that ethnic populations believe Suu Kyi represents their best hope for change after decades of military persecution and misrule. A proliferation of ethnic-based parties split the USDP’s vote in many areas, paving the way for NLD wins in places analysts predicted it would struggle. The NLD will thus have an absolute majority in all seven regional parliaments and three state parliaments.

Ethnic state politics are set to change. Ethnic party leaders, many of whom operate as traditional strongmen in conflict areas, will necessarily see their decision-making authority diminished in the wake of the NLD’s sweeping win in their territories. Because the NLD won an absolute majority in both the upper and lower houses of the national parliament, it will not need to form a coalition with the few ethnic parties that won significant seats, namely the Shan National League for Democracy and the Arakan National Party. Both electoral upshots, analysts say, will likely enhance Suu Kyi’s negotiating power in any potential peace talks. 

Suu Kyi’s bigger challenge will be to assert civilian command over the military. Although heralded as an historic democratic transition, Myanmar’s new political order is more accurately viewed as a largely undefined power-sharing arrangement between elected politicians and military forces. Armed forces commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will maintain control over appointments to the powerful defense, home, and border security ministries, giving the military top-down control over the police and civil service. Under ill-defined emergency situations, the military is also legally allowed to seize power by coup.

Thein Sein’s peace drive suffered from ethnic group perceptions that his quasi-civilian government lacked the power to command the military to honor brokered agreements. Days before the signing of Thein Sein’s national ceasefire agreement, the military launched a new offensive employing aerial strikes in civilian areas against the non-signatory Shan State Army-North. Since the elections, the military has also escalated fighting in northern Kachin State, raising concerns that the hostilities could affect the transfer of power to NLD candidates who won election in the area.

Some political analysts view the intensified offensives as a military warning-shot across the NLD’s bow. While Suu Kyi may aspire to realize her father’s Panglong vision of a federal union and solidify her credentials as a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the contemporary reality is that the military has a vested interest in perpetual armed conflict to justify its outsized political role and safeguard its substantial economic interests. How Suu Kyi strikes the balance between ethnic aspirations and military interests will be crucial to the stability of her overwhelmingly elected government and her legacy as a unifying peacemaker.