Power Over People in Thailand

Desperate for growth and investment, Thailand’s ruling junta plans to deploy the same authoritarian measures it has used to curb dissent and consolidate political control to ram through a number of contentious economic policies and projects. In late January, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha issued two orders invoking Section 44 of the military’s interim constitution to suspend laws and regulations that local communities across the country have leveraged to challenge and delay the construction of power plants and industrial zones they fear will degrade the environment and endanger their livelihoods.

The executive orders will pave the way for the development of 10 special economic zones (SEZs) in various border provinces and at least 14 power plant projects including coal, waste-to-energy and biomass fired facilities. Many of the projects have until now failed to break ground under legal challenges lodged by concerned citizens and activist groups that Prayuth’s order will apparently unilaterally overrule. His military government justified the suspension of the regulations on the grounds Thailand faces twin energy security and waste management crises that would impinge on future growth if not quickly resolved.

The move marked the first time Prayuth has invoked the overriding powers of Section 44 to push through controversial economic measures. His government has come under growing fire for its perceived limp management of the economy, which has stalled since his junta seized power in a May 2014 coup. The Bank of Thailand, the country’s central bank, estimates gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit a paltry 2.8 percent last year. It recently lowered its 2016 growth projection from 3.7 percent to 3.5 percent based on a revised down expectation of zero export growth. Exports account for around 70 percent of Thailand’s trade-geared GDP.  

With household debt approaching 90 percent of GDP, the highest level in over a decade, Prayuth has been hard-pressed to offset falling exports with domestic demand-led growth. Economic analysts have broadly lauded his government’s multi-billion dollar infrastructure plans to modernize and expand the country’s decrepit rail system, including investments aimed at improving trade logistics for the newly launched ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The long-term projects, however, have failed to spark immediate fast growth at a time the rural economy is suffering severely from depressed global commodity prices.

The Section 44 enabled SEZs, scheduled for construction across all geographic regions of the country, are consistent with Thailand’s aspiration to serve as the AEC’s hub. In a nationally televised address on January 23, Prayuth said current infrastructure at 13 major border areas was insufficient to keep pace with rising regional trade and investment, officially estimated at almost 800 billion baht per year. He revealed in the same address government plans to invest 10.5 billion baht in 124 SEZ-related infrastructure projects over the next two fiscal years. His junta government also aims to attract foreign investment in the SEZs. 

Private corporations were quick to praise Prayuth’s policy assertiveness, which many analysts and investors feel his authoritarian government has so far lacked  The Bangkok Post quoted the chief executive officer of Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding, Thailand’s largest private power producer, saying he was “delighted” that Prayuth was willing to “unlock” regulations that had stalled investments on environmental and health concerns. State-owned enterprises, including energy concerns PTT and EGAT, are also expected to play leading roles in implementing the SEZ projects, according to analysts.

The regulations Prayuth plans to override were born of past environmental and health disasters caused by unchecked and ill-conceived industrial developments. Those incidents engendered a strong environmental movement that has become increasingly adept over the years at pressing lawsuits and mobilizing protests that have stalled or stymied new investments in polluting and otherwise environmentally degrading industries. The empowered movement has driven many Thai energy concerns to scrap new projects at home and pursue opportunities in less-regulated neighboring countries like Myanmar and Laos.

Thailand’s recent environmental gains, consolidated in laws and regulations requiring extensive impact assessment studies and local community consultations, have come at a high human cost. Protection International, a rights group, says that more than 50 environmental and land rights activists have been killed over the past decade, usually in circumstances pitting local communities against big corporations. Collusion between unscrupulous local politicians, corrupt officials, and criminal networks has ensured that the perpetrators and masterminds behind the crimes nearly always escape justice.While Prayuth’s orders promise to fast track sorely needed rural growth, they will also put him on a collision course with grassroots communities in all geographical regions. His junta’s provincial suppression to date has focused on neutralizing the perceived threat of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s “Red Shirt” activists who had threatened a rural civil war if the military overthrew his younger sister’s elected government. Now, as Prayuth pushes for projects and plants many communities had felt empowered to fight under democracy, he simultaneously risks sparking new sources of conflict and social instability.