Russia’s Submarine Force in the Pacific in 2016
The combat power of Russia’s Far Eastern Fleet is slated to increase this year.
Since 2013, Russia’s submarine force in the Pacific has slowly expanded in capability and size and this trend is likely to continue in 2016. In 2015, Russia’s second-biggest fleet, for the first time since the end of the Soviet Union, received a new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), the Alexander Nevsky, the second vessel of the Borei-class (“North Wind”). In 2016, another Borei-class SSBN, the Vladimir Monomak, will enter service in Russia’s Pacific Fleet with four more Borei-class submarines expected to join the force over the next decade.
Strategic deterrence vis-à-vis the United States remains the principal job of the Russian submarine force in the Pacific, a task for which the new Borei-class boats are ideally suited. Conceptualized by Rubin Marine Equipment Design Bureau and built by Northern Machine Building Enterprise (Sevmash shipyard), the Borei-class is intended to replace the aging Delta III and Delta IV-class submarines. (The Pacific Fleet’s remaining Typhoon-class SSBNs have already been decommissioned.)
Each Borei-class SSBN can carry from 12 to 16 Bulava (RSM-56) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) – a sea-based variant of the Topol-M SS-27 – armed with 6-10 warheads per missile. Consequently, one submarine can carry between 72 to 160 hypersonic, independently maneuverable warheads, yielding 100-150 kilotons apiece. The Bulava missile purportedly has a range of over 8,300 kilometers (5,157 miles) and is specifically designed to evade Western ballistic missile defense shields. The new ICBM is intended to be the cornerstone of the sea-based component of Russia’s nuclear triad.
However, the Bulava ICBM could prove to be the Achilles heel of Russia’s modernization drive in its Far Eastern submarine force in 2016. Sources indicate that the Russian defense industry has so far failed to install a full set of Bulava ICBMs aboard the Vladimir Monomak, which has cast upon the exact induction date of the new SSBN into the Pacific Fleet, although the Russian military is confident that it will occur in 2016.
The failure to produce an adequate number of Bulava ICBMs could be an indication of wider problems in Russia’s defense industry affected by, among other things, a deteriorating economic situation in the country overall, and a lack of technical expertise, which may not bode well for Russia’s ambitious naval modernization plans for the coming years.
Nevertheless, new Borei-class submarine facilities are currently under construction on the Kamchatka Peninsula at the Rybachiy Nuclear Submarine Base in Vilyuchinsk. Rybachiy is home to the majority of Russia’s Pacific nuclear submarine fleet, grouped in the 16th Squadron.
On paper, Russia’s submarine force in the Pacific in 2016 consists of four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, five nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, five nuclear-powered attack submarines, and eight conventional attack submarines. However, only between 40 to 70 percent of the submarines are estimated to be capable of conducting patrols.
Only one nuclear-powered ballistic submarine, the Alexander Nevsky, is operational, with the one Delta III-class sub undergoing overhaul and the other two vessels of the class currently held in reserve (although some sources list both submarines as fully operational). Of the five nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, three Oscar II-class vessels are operational with the other two undergoing upgrades. Of the five nuclear-powered attack submarines of the Akula-I class four are in various phases of upgrades with one apparently operational. Out of a total of eight diesel-electric Kilo-class attack submarines, five are operational as of January 2016.
According to Admiral Vladimir Chirkov, the Russian Navy’s commander-in-chief, all upgrades, which are supposed to expand the lifespan of the submarines for another 15-20 years, will be complete by 2020. However, it remains to be seen whether Russia’s shipbuilding industry has the capacity to do that. As of January 2016, there is no indication that any of the subs currently in overhaul will return to active duty during this year.
What are the future prospects of new submarines joining the Pacific Fleet?
The first of six Yasen-class multi-purpose attack nuclear submarines (SSGN) will be inducted in 2017 at the earliest. The exorbitant costs of the submarines – estimated to be twice as much as the new Borei-class SSBNs – has so far led only to the commissioning of one out of eight SSGNs, with a further three to four vessels likely to be completed by 2020.
Delays in the construction of Lada-class submarines, recently led to the announcement that six Improved Kilo-class submarines will be built for the Pacific Fleet. These new vessels will most likely be fitted with Klub (Kalibr) submarine-launched anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles, and will add extra fire power to the fleet.
“The Pacific Fleet needs 10-12 up-to-date diesel-electric submarines in the coming decade. Combined with the nuclear-powered submarine fleet, the number will ensure superiority over the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force on the maritime border and a parity with the U.S. Navy,” according to a Russian defense industry source.
In many ways the statement above appears to be wishful thinking. Nevertheless, the importance of Russia’s Pacific Fleet is set to increase over the next years, in particular given the growing geopolitical significance of the Asia-Pacific region for Russia overall. Modernizing the fleet’s submarine force remains the singular most important objective for the Russian Navy in the Far East. With the arrival of one additional Borei-class SSBN this year, the combat power of Russia’s Pacific Fleet will increase significantly in 2016.