Political High Season in Hong Kong

Every five years, Hong Kong holds elections for the post of the chief executive, the city’s highest political post and head of government. The next election is slated for March 26, 2017. In a little over six months, Beijing will put forward a list of candidates whom they deem fit for the position. These selected few will then campaign against each other, and a winner will be nominated by a 1,200-member committee, the equivalent of an electoral college, that should be “broadly representative” of the 28 economic sectors in Hong Kong. However, reports have suggested that the committee is stacked with Beijing-friendly groups and not necessarily representative of the people.

The fact that the candidates for chief executive are strictly selected by Beijing has been a major sticking point for Hongkongers. It played a large part in the 2014 protests for universal suffrage in Hong Kong, also known as the Umbrella Revolution. It was argued that there could never really be “One Country, Two Systems” if China always ultimately selects the nominees. The clearing of the protests, and subsequent inaction by the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, has led to the rise of a small but vocal movement calling for self-determination and perhaps even independence for the city. Earlier this month, as if to further add fuel the fire, the electoral council declared that all candidates would be required to declare their acceptance of Hong Kong as an inalienable part of China or face disqualification, despite already having to sign a declaration to uphold the Basic Law, which stipulates the same thing. The change is facing stiff opposition.

The current chief executive is Leung Chun-ying, also known as CY Leung, arguably the most despised chief executive Hong Kong has seen since the 1997 transfer of sovereignty from Great Britain back to China. Leung, a former pro-Beijing real estate businessman, never really made a positive impression on the citizens of Hong Kong. Even before he took office, his support for a Chinese-style national education system was met with angry protests. Since then, he has stumbled from one public relations disaster to another, including an anti-corruption watchdog investigation into a secret AU$50 million payment made to him from an Australian engineering firm, both before and during his time in office. He has also been tainted by claims of cronyism over free-to-air television licensing and has been accused of abuse of power for ordering airport security staff to violate security protocol in order to retrieve his daughter’s personal belongings. But perhaps what he is most despised for is his introduction of a Beijing-mandated electoral reform bill that sparked the 79-day Umbrella Revolution which, among other things, called for his resignation. This is Leung’s first term in office, which means he is eligible to stand again for another term. While he has not yet made any public announcements, it is widely expected that he will run for the post again in 2017.

With more than a year away, there is already speculation as to who could be next in line for contention. A number of familiar names, all of whom are pro-Beijing, have been suggested by political pundits. The current finance secretary is one of the contenders. John Tsang Chun-wah currently assists Leung in policy formulation and implementation in all things financial, monetary, economic, and trade. Interestingly, Tsang was raised and educated in the United States, attending MIT and Harvard; he only returned to Hong Kong as a public servant in his 30s. As finance secretary he has been criticized for being more of an implementer of policy rather than a strategic thinker and has been blamed for Hong Kong’s stagnating economy. To his credit though, he has crafted a Hong Kong-friendly public image, often to the disadvantage of Leung.

The current chief secretary for administration, and number two behind Leung, is Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor. Although she has announced her retirement from politics at the end of her term next year, there is no doubt that Lam has long been a favorite to take the top job. Born, raised, and educated in Hong Kong, Lam had a stellar political career; she was once considered a shining light for the little people. But her selection to Leung’s Executive Council changed that; since then, she has constantly taken collateral damage standing next to the unpopular incumbent chief executive.

If CY Leung had a female alter-ego, it would be the founder of the Beijing-leaning New People’s Party, Regina Ip. A career public servant with high ambitions and her eyes firmly set on the top role, she previously served as director of immigration in the 1990s, as well as secretary of security from 1998 until her indignant resignation 2003. In 2002, in her capacity as secretary of security, Ip advocated a controversial security bill known as Article 23, which sparked perhaps the first major public reaction to implied Chinese interference in Hong Kong affairs. The bill was an anti-treason, secession, sedition, and subversion law which explicitly prohibited the establishment of ties with foreign political organizations. Ip was vocal in her disregard for popular sentiment and is famous for saying, “Hitler was elected by the people. But he ended up killing seven million people. This proves that democracy is not a cure-all medicine.” Ip also publicly stated that any public protest would amass no more than 30,000 people. In defiance, 500,000 took to the streets of Hong Kong. The bill was eventually withdrawn and shelved indefinitely. Not long after, Ip resigned in shame and took a sabbatical from public service. Since that time, Ip has been continually inconsistent about her views on democracy, from advocating for full democracy on her return to government to her public disdain of the press and staunch opposition to the universal suffrage protests. Some have accused her of being a “fake democrat.” The public has not forgotten the role she played in promoting Article 23.

Perhaps the most paradoxical politician in Hong Kong, and the potential crowd favorite, would be current Legislative Council President Jasper Tsang Yok-sing. Tsang is a veteran lawmaker and leading figure of the Communist Party’s main representative in Hong Kong, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB for short). Tsang is a highly intelligent politician who seems to have a grasp of the sentiment of his city. He is cognizant of the political constraints in the current system, but chooses to play within its boundaries. The majority of the population would see him as a vast improvement on the incumbent, initially at least.

At this stage though, all these individuals are simply speculative contenders. Traditionally, without the mandate of Beijing, it is simply not practical to even show interest in the position. The harsh reality of the matter is that until the central government in China makes a clear indication of whom they will pick as candidates, nobody is a contender.