Japan-Philippine Relations Enter the Duterte Era

In August, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida became the first senior official from Tokyo to visit the Philippines since President Rodrigo Duterte assumed power in June. His visit, which occurred as Tokyo and Manila commemorated the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties, provided an early window into what Japan-Philippine relations under the Duterte era might look like.

Japan and the Philippines have long had a close relationship. When former Japanese premier Takeo Fukuda wanted to herald Tokyo’s new approach to Southeast Asia, which had been marred by Japanese occupation during World War II, he chose Manila to deliver his famous “Fukuda Doctrine” speech in 1977. While economics initially dominated the relationship, growing anxiety about Chinese actions in the East and South China Seas have led both countries to strengthen their defense ties under a strategic partnership first inked in 2011 and upgraded in 2015 under former Philippine President Benigno Aquino III and still-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Amid lingering concerns about Duterte’s foreign policy – from an initially overzealous embrace of China to a rocky start in ties with its ally the United States – Kishida’s visit offered an early opportunity to assess what Japan-Philippine relations might look like in the next few years.

Kishida’s visit, running from August 10 to 12, saw him meet with several high-level officials, including his counterpart Perfecto Yasay, Duterte, Secretary of Finance Carlos G. Dominguez, and the Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority Ernesto Pernia.

On the security side, maritime security was unsurprisingly a key topic of discussion. Japan has long been one of the Philippines’ main partners in capacity-building, and this has been a top priority for Manila over the past few years and will continue to be with China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Kishida announced that the first of ten multi-role response vessels (MRRVs) for the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) would begin arriving later this month, and the two sides also reportedly explored the possibility of Japan transferring two bigger MRRVs to the Philippines as well. No updates were publicly revealed on Japan’s leasing of TC-90 training aircraft to the Philippines, though both countries reiterated their commitment to realizing that goal.

The other main area of focus was insurgency and terrorism. The Philippine military, still one of Asia’s weakest, has had to deal with a host of insurgencies and armed non-state actors over the years, including the Communist Party of the Philippines New People’s Army (NPA), the terrorist-criminal Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), and various Moro secessionist groups mainly based in the country’s south, chiefly the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

Duterte, the first Philippine president from the south, has breathed new life into peace processes with both the communists and the MILF. Perhaps sensing Duterte’s strong commitment to this area, Kishida said Japan was prepared to provide “focused support” for Mindanao, including through official development assistance (ODA). At his joint press conference with Yasay, Kishida said this would focus primarily on areas like infrastructure and agriculture. He also said Tokyo hopes to strengthen counterterrorism cooperation with Manila more generally.

“[W]e are very grateful that Japan has also offered us further assistance … more in the area of law enforcement, in the area of making sure that the fight against terrorism will be strengthened,” Yasay said according to local media outlets following his meeting with Kishida.

On economics, the key items were infrastructure and business ties. On the Philippine side, Yasay was blunt about the Duterte administration’s desire to advance specific infrastructure projects with Japan, and even insisted that Dominguez and Pernia attend his working lunch with Kishida so that specifics could be discussed. Though no specifics were publicly revealed in terms of potential new projects, the big ticket item is likely to be rail, which Duterte has signaled will be his priority within infrastructure development.

For Japan, having already provided a $2.37 billion loan for the Philippines’ North-South Commuter Railway Project – one of Tokyo’s largest ever loans of its kind – Tokyo would ideally like to see Manila adopt Japanese technology for the project as well. But as Masako Ohtaka, the deputy press secretary of the Japanese foreign ministry, told Philippine media outlet Rappler during Kishida’s visit, Tokyo expects some competition in this realm in spite of its push for Japanese companies to be involved. Duterte had previously signaled that he would try to enlist China’s help for railway projects.

On business-to-business ties, Kishida subtly noted that problems in the Philippine economy need to be addressed in order to create a better business environment for more Japanese companies to not just invest, but also set up businesses there. Both sides also said they hoped to enact a new agreement on social security as soon as possible.

The two sides also discussed regional issues. Japan had signaled that the July 12 arbitral tribunal verdict on the Philippines’ South China Sea case against China, which was initiated by the Aquino administration, would be a focus of the visit, and that proved to be the case. Though the tribunal ruled overwhelmingly in favor of Manila, the Duterte administration has downplayed its significance as it tries to get the broader Sino-Philippine relationship back on track after years of tensions. That has created a dilemma for the United States and its partners like Japan, who had been strongly backing the Aquino administration in its defiance of Beijing.

As with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent visit to the Philippines, the public line that emerged from the discussions was a joint commitment to the rule of law and the peaceful resolution of disputes. But one Japanese diplomat familiar with the deliberations told The Diplomat that Tokyo’s worries about Duterte’s South China Sea approach still remained. “It’s still worrying, but our focus was making clear where we stand as one of their strategic partners,” the source, who requested anonymity, said.

Though these concerns are natural as Japan-Philippine relations under the Duterte era have only just begun to take shape, we could see things firming up within the next few months. As Kishida emphasized, the 60th anniversary this year offers an opportunity to build momentum for the relationship, including potentially with a high-level visit by not just Yasay, but Duterte, to Japan for a meeting with Abe as well. As Duterte and his advisers begin planning for his foreign travel for the rest of 2016 – starting with his first overseas trip in September, which will include attending the round of ASEAN summitry in Laos – that will certainly be worth considering.