Goodbye Karimov, Hello Mirziyoyev

It’s not quite unexpected when a 78-year-old man, often rumored to be in ill health, dies.  Inevitable as death is, stable states are unquestionably able to live on past their founders.

Uzbekistan is not, however, an unquestionably stable state. When Islam Karimov--not only Uzbekistan’s first president but the man who “gave” Uzbekistan independence on September 1, 1991--died, regional analysts held their breath and then began to chatter. Despite a Constitution that lays out succession, Uzbekistan has never been a state that followed the letter of its own laws. The question on every mind was who would be next?

In short order, Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev maneuvered himself into the position of interim president. Elections are set for December 4. Twenty-five years after independence, Uzbekistan will finally have a new leader. In a region known for its de facto life-term presidents, such a transition does not happen often.

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It is perhaps too symbolic that Islam Karimov died, officially, the day after Uzbekistan's September 1 Independence Day. In fact, the government has reportedly arrested several people for spreading rumors that his death was any day before September 2.

The government in Tashkent surprised regional watchers by admitting that Karimov was in the hospital in late August. At that point, Karimov had not been seen in public since August 17. With only four days left before he would be expected to deliver a speech at the Independence Day festivities, admitting Karimov was in less-than-peak condition had become necessary.

Slowly, details began trickling out. On August 28, the government said Karimov had been taken to the hospital for a full examination and that treatment would "take a certain period of time." The next day, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva, his second daughter, announced via Instagram that her father had been “hospitalized after suffering a cerebral hemorrhage on Saturday morning, and is now receiving treatment in an intensive care unit.” Over the next two days, the news spread around the world that Karimov had been laid low by a stroke, followed by rumors that he was already dead. Across the region, analysts and diplomats alike, asked each other over drinks: “So, do you think he’s dead yet?”

A macabre joke emerged: Karimov was Schrodinger's dictator.

Independence Day was watched carefully. Karimov did not appear, but a speech--attributed to him, of course--was read out on state television. Mirziyoyev marshalled the independence celebrations, cementing the growing consensus that he would be next in line.

Meanwhile, in Karimov’s hometown what looked like funeral preparations had begun. Samarkand is one of Central Asia’s oldest cities and home to the Registan, an iconic public square. On September 1, pictures appeared on social media showing people cleaning the Registan and RFE/RL reported that Mirziyoyev had made an unannounced trip to the city.

On September 2, the government posted a statement that Karimov’s condition had “deteriorated sharply.” Then government officials and diplomats from regional states began leaking that they’d been invited to the funeral planned for September 3. Turkey’s Prime Minister Binali Yildirim expressed his condolences live on TV, and Afghan and Kyrgyz officials confirmed to various news outlets that their leaders had been invited to Karimov’s funeral.

Only then Tashkent made its announcement. Six days after being taken to the hospital, Karimov was officially dead. On September 2, Uzbekistan briefly (though without official confirmation) followed its constitution and Senate chairman Nigmatilla Yuldashev became acting president. He swiftly proposed that Mirziyoyev take over in light of his  "many years of experience." Mirziyoyev was appointed interim president on September 8 and a week later was nominated by the Liberal-Democratic Party--the party that Karimov was always nominated by--to run in the December election.

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Karimov’s death--whenever it actually happened--was a carefully stage-managed affair. Behind the scenes the elites massaged the proceeding of history. Perhaps later the backroom details will emerge, but it could be some time. The new boss is the same as the old boss.

As Karimov lay comatose--according to a Finnish neurosurgeon, part of the team trying to save Karimov, he was essentially “brain dead” soon after the stroke on August 27--whatever risk of government breakdown existed was mitigated carefully by Mirziyoyev, National Security Committee (SNB) chief Rustam Inoyatov, and Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov.

As Mathieu Boulègue explained in an article for Registan, the three powerful Uzbek political elites have decided on the status quo. Mirziyoyev, who hails from the same Samarkand clan as Karimov, is poised to be the next ruling face of Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, Inoyatov and Azimov--whom Boulègue calls “grey cardinals,” both of the Tashkent clan--will rule from the wings.

This is the arrangement, under Karimov’s later days, that saw all three men rise to powerful positions. They have few interests in altering the system that brought them power and wealth. Inoyatov and Azimov control most of the important state functions--the security services and the purse strings--and look likely to continue to do so.

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From most accounts Mirziyoyev is as ruthless a character as Karimov and the status quo--an authoritarian state of affairs--is the most likely near-term future.

“He’s the exact same kind of ruler as Islam Karimov, maybe even tougher, and I certainly think less intellectual,” Daniil Kislov, editor of Fergana, an independent news agency which broke the news of Karimov’s death, told the Financial Times.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Uzbekistan shortly after the funeral and met with Mirziyoyev. “You can fully count on us as your most reliable friend,” he told Mirziyoyev.

Karimov had a habit, as the region’s elder statesman, of forging his own path. For example, he quit the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) twice when the group no longer suited his needs. Russia is betting that Mirziyoyev is interested in an ally, and Moscow is probably right.