Hong Kong Will Have a New Chief Executive in 2017

Over the past several months, Hong Kong’s incumbent chief executive CY Leung has been dithering in statements to the media over whether he will once again run for the post come 2017. In early December, however, he put the uncertainty to bed by announcing that he will not seek re-election as chief executive of Hong Kong. He attributed his decision to family issues, and made a valiant speech about his dedication to his wife and daughters.

Leung has arguably been the most unpopular leader since the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997. He is widely considered an overly eager lackey of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with little sincerity or genuine concern for Hong Kong as a city, or for its people. For this reason, he’s seen in Hong Kong as less the administrative leader of the city, and more a divisive representative of all that is negative about the Chinese government.

During his tenure, Leung has been embroiled in personal controversy over a HK$50 million (US$6 million) secret payment from an Australian engineering firm. The scandal was followed by a series of resignations of the lead investigators into those payments at the city’s Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), which has led to an even deeper mistrust of not only Leung, but the Hong Kong government as a whole. Leung was also a major target of the Umbrella Movement, which saw hundreds of thousands of protesters take to the streets of Hong Kong, bringing the central business districts to a standstill for 79 days. During the 2014 Umbrella Movement protests, Leung decided to take a hardline stance, clamping down on the protesters. While unpopular in Hong Kong, the move was in line with the expectations of the central government in Beijing. This was publicly applauded by Beijing at the time, considering the protests ended with no bloodshed, and no compromises on its part either.

But much has changed since 2014. There are two factions within the CPC when it comes to Leung, according to Lau Siu-kai, vice chairman of the mainland think tank, the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies. One side applauds Leung’s hardline stance; the other considers Hong Kong’s social rift as a direct result of his lack of political skill in governance.

In the years since the protests, Hong Kong’s political landscape has moved in such an unforeseen direction that the Chinese government can no longer ignore it. The rise of the grassroots localist movement calling for self-determination has made Beijing nervous. While Beijing is not threatened by the movement from a sovereignty perspective – in spite of calls for independence from certain elements – it is nonetheless a cause for concern, especially because it has been an organic development with no definitive leaders. Much of the discontent has been directed at Leung, and this has spread to pro-establishment political parties too, with the formation of intraparty blocs calling themselves “ABC” – Anyone But CY Leung – intent on campaigning against almost every policy Leung has tried to implement.

This popular dislike of Leung is not lost on Beijing.

“Leung’s re-election would spark a backlash from Hong Kong people. The relationship between Hongkongers and the central government would unavoidably worsen,” Lau told the South China Morning Post.

It seems Beijing has been taking heed of public sentiment in Hong Kong. It has been widely reported that central government representatives are consulting with politicians from both side of the divide to gauge and assess Leung’s performance, asking for frank commentary on where he has been deficient, and also what might happen if he is re-elected. His decision to not run next year would have undoubtedly come about after consultation with Beijing, according to Tian Feilong, an associate professor in the law school at Beihang University in Beijing.

“The central government has heeded public opinion in Hong Kong and would prefer the next chief executive to facilitate social harmony,” Tian told the South China Morning Post. “The central government has become more rational in handling Hong Kong affairs. A chief executive is not good enough if he or she only relies on tough measures and confrontational tactics.”

Chinese leaders understand the importance of social stability, and it is something that they have gone to extraordinary lengths to manage. In 2016, Beijing actively took the initiative to intervene where necessary, and where it counts the most – in one case by effectively barring democratically elected, independence-leaning legislators from taking office.

In an unprecedented reaction to events at Hong Kong’s legislature, China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) unanimously passed an interpretation of Article 104 of Hong Kong’s Basic Law, the “mini constitution” that forms the basis of the concept of “one country, two systems.” The November ruling arguably stipulates who can be admitted into the legislature by placing subjective guidelines on the swearing-in process. More impactful was the fact that this interpretation was pushed through the NPCSC before Hong Kong’s own High Court handed down a ruling on the matter. This has put a shadow over the power of Hong Kong’s judiciary as well as the aforementioned “one country, two systems” concept; it has also given China new authority over its stubborn southern Special Autonomous Region.

With its newfound method of intervening in Hong Kong affairs, Beijing now needs social stability more than it needs a hard man to control Hong Kong. The next chief executive will be one that ensures social harmony, economic development, and internal affairs, rather than the boot-shining that has so plagued Leung’s image. For sentimental reasons too, Beijing will be determined to ensure next year’s 20th anniversary of the handover will be a smooth celebration rather than cause for more civil unrest. The announcement of a new chief executive to replace CY Leung will be an opportune time for the central government to reignite its campaign to win the hearts and minds of the people of Hong Kong.