Shinzo Abe’s Foreign Policy Agenda for 2017

Japan’s diplomacy got off to a busy start in 2017.  On January 5, when people in Japan were barely returning to their daily routine after the New Year’s holiday, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada visited the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to meet with its secretary-general.   Inada’s visit to NATO was the first in a decade by a Japanese defense minister. Inada then traveled to France to meet with French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and join Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida for a Japan-France bilateral foreign and defense ministerial (so-called 2+2) meeting.    

During these meetings in Europe, Inada’s (and Kishida’s) core message was threefold: first, Japan sees NATO and its individual member countries as a “reliable and natural partner” that shares fundamental values such as rule of law and respect for human rights; second, U.S. alliances in Europe and Asia are the basic foundation of today’s international order; and third, closer security cooperation between Japan and Europe is more important than ever in today’s global security environment.

Inada and Kishida’s Europe trip was followed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s five-day tour of the Asia-Pacific region in which he visited the Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. At each stop, Abe’s visits were capped with the announcement of major bilateral agreements and initiatives — a five-year aid package to the Philippines for infrastructure development, the Japan-Australia Acquisition and Cross-Service Agreement, the Japan-Indonesia Joint Statement of Strengthening Strategic Partnership, and an aid package to Vietnam for climate change and maritime security.

Above all, in each country Abe stressed Japan’s strong commitment to play an active role in upholding the liberal international order in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the area of maritime security. Abe talked about his government’s intention to pursue a “free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy” to protect the rule of law in the vast maritime area in the Western Pacific as the foundation of the peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.

One might call these recent diplomatic outreaches by Abe and his cabinet members as a “tour of reassurance.”  These trips took place as Europe continues to process the reality of Brexit, and soon after Donald Trump, just ahead of being sworn in as the 45th president of the United States, questioned the validity of NATO, and openly challenged the effectiveness of U.S. alliances around the world.  Faced with the prospect of the United States disengaging from the world, discussion of “other options” is starting in some of the countries that have enjoyed several decades as U.S. allies. During this process, Abe and his cabinet members are making efforts to reach out to these countries to reconfirm that there are fundamental international values and norms that Japan shares with these countries, and which must be upheld with or without the United States. Japan is aiming to reassure partners on Japan’s commitment to remain an active participant in the efforts to uphold the international order that is based on shared values, and also make the case that U.S. partners and allies can only encourage Washington to remain engaged internationally by developing more robust intra-alliance partnerships.

Indeed, Japan will need robust international partnerships to face its own foreign policy challenges closer to home. Its relationship with China remains chilly over China’s assertive actions in the East China Sea. The fall of South Korean President Park Geun-hye from power and the recent diplomatic tension over the movement in Busan to install a comfort women statue — which Japan protested by recalling its ambassador to Seoul and consul general to Busan — are jeopardizing the landmark agreement that Japan signed with South Korea in December 2015 over comfort women. That deal would have put the bilateral relationship between Tokyo and Seoul on a forward-looking path. Despite heightened expectations, the prospect of Japan-Russia relations remains unclear. Needless to say, North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, combined with its continued defiance, continues to present the most imminent security threat for Japan.

In this environment, Japan will need to solidify its partnership with the broader international community to better prepare to face challenges close to home. While a great deal of uncertainty remains about the incoming Trump administration’s policy toward Asia, proactively setting the tone for Japan’s diplomacy is a prudent step for Abe.