A Year of Elections for the World’s Biggest Democracy

This year is shaping up to be an important one in Indian domestic politics. In 2017, state assembly elections are being held in seven Indian states, the results of which could have an enormous impact on Indian politics and the policies of the central government in years to come. Since May 2014, the Indian central government has been led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

States in India’s federal political system are given enormous fiscal discretion, so whoever controls the legislative assemblies carries enormous import for a central government seeking the cooperation of states in implementing its economic policies. Moreover, the states elect members of the upper house of India’s parliament, the 245-seat Rajya Sabha, which raises the stakes of any local election in India, as the cooperation of the upper house is needed for any meaningful reforms the lower house, the Lok Sabha (dominated by the BJP), may pass.

The BJP hopes to use wins in state elections to increase its showing in the Rajya Sabha; the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, which it heads, only has 74 seats in the Rajya Sabha, compared to 171 seats for opposition parties. State assemblies are important for another reason: for some aspects of the Indian constitution to be amended, the consent of more than half of all state assemblies is needed.

Seven State Elections in 2017

The most important election by far – the mother of all state-level elections in India – is the state assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. Uttar Pradesh has 200 million people, about as many as in Brazil, the world’s fifth-most populous nation. Because of its enormous population, Uttar Pradesh politics have a huge impact all over India. The Uttar Pradesh elections take place from February 11 to March 8 in seven phases.

In the lead-up to the elections, the political situation in Uttar Pradesh has been dominated by a fission in the state’s local ruling party, the Samajwadi (Socialist) Party. The conflict pitted current Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav against his father, Mulayam Yadav, a former chief minister, and began over a dispute on which candidates the party should run in the upcoming elections.

While Mulayam had originally intended for Akhilesh to defer to his guidance, Akhilesh has recently forged a path of his own, especially since the 2014 national elections which had the BJP win the majority of the seats up for grab in parliament from Uttar Pradesh. After the 2014 elections, Akhilesh Yadav adapted some of Modi’s pro-development rhetoric. This alienated some of the older members of the party, who had previously won elections on the basis of communal politics. For several months at the end of 2016, it seemed as though the Samajwadi Party would run two alternative lists of candidates against each other, selected by Mulayam and Akhilesh respectively, but the two have now since reconciled. The dispute may have hurt the Samajwadi Party, which has recently formed an alliance with the Congress Party (India’s main opposition party) for the elections.

In the meantime, the traditional regional rival of the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by the charismatic Mayawati, and often seen as a vehicle of Dalits (untouchables), seems to be unable to rival the Samajwadi Party. Currently, polls have the Samajwadi Party and BJP running neck and neck in Uttar Pradesh. While a win for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh will greatly help the party’s national agenda, a win for Akhilesh Yadav, who is open to developmental legislation, would not be the worst scenario either.

Other important states holding elections in 2017 include Gujarat and Punjab. The Gujarat assembly’s term expires in early January 2018, so it is likely that elections will be held by December 2017. As Gujarat is the home state of Narendra Modi and a stronghold of the BJP, it is unlikely for any other party to come to power there anytime soon, though the Congress will likely put up a fight.

Punjab holds its elections on February 4 and is considered a competitive election between the parties contesting seats. The party currently in power, the Shiromani Akali Dal, a Sikh-oriented party in alliance with the BJP, is facing anti-incumbency sentiment. Victory is likely to go to either the Congress Party or the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The AAP was originally founded to oppose the politics as usual of both the Congress and the BJP. The AAP did well when it captured power in Delhi two years ago, but has floundered since. However, its chances in Punjab are strong as many voters still resent the Congress Party for its handling of a drug epidemic in the early 2000s and an insurgency in the 1980s.

Four other smaller states will also hold elections in 2017: Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa. These four states are more or less direct contests between the BJP and Congress. Manipur is noteworthy because of the close contest between the two parties in a state that has suffered insurgency and blockades for decades; it is also the first election held in the state since the iconic Irom Sharmila broke her 16-year-long fast to protest Indian Army actions in the region in order form a political outfit.

Beyond State Assembly Elections

India’s president and vice president will also be elected in 2017, as the five-year terms of the current holders of these officers, Pranab Mukherjee and Hamid Ansari – the latter is on his second five year term – expire this year. Although these offices are mainly symbolic, they hold a substantial number of reserved powers and, as such, are considered important positions. This is especially true of the office of the president, who holds the power to appoint figurehead state governors, dissolve parliament, and declare a state of emergency throughout India (as happened in 1975-1977).

The presidential election must be held before July 25, 2017 and the vice presidential election before August 10, 2017. Both positions are elected by an electoral college consisting of members of the upper and lower houses of parliament as well as the members of India’s state and union territory assemblies – yet another reason why the results of India’s state elections are important.

Due to the large size of the electoral college selecting the president and vice president of India, the figure elected is likely to be a respected and none too controversial candidate. As the ruling party, the BJP is likely to put forth a candidate from its own party. It is highly unlikely that Mukherjee, who was nominated by the previous Congress government, will be selected by the BJP again.

Instead, the BJP is likely to nominate one of its own, such as an elder statesman like Lal Krishna Advani, a previous leader and founding member of the party. Other lesser known members are also possible, especially since Advani has a reputation for being independent. It is also possible that a technocrat or even a Bollywood star such as Amitabh Bachchan could be selected, as Modi has evidenced an interest in having a well-known and prestigious brand ambassador for India.

This year will be a must-watch year for Indian politics. The results of the state and national elections could determine whether achieving the BJP’s national agenda is made easier or more difficult.