Letter from the Editors
Even the best laid plans – from Tajikistan to Japan – often go awry.
Dear Readers,
Welcome to the June 2017 issue of The Diplomat Magazine.
As the saying goes, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In this month’s issue we explore plans that haven’t worked out as intended from Tajikistan – where the peace agreement 20 years ago that brought the country’s civil war to a close hasn’t led to prosperity, as was hoped – to Japan, where tough political maneuvering to achieve a final Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement was rewarded by the withdrawal of Tokyo’s major partner, the United States. Meanwhile, in South Korea, a new president is beginning to lay his own plans, which could be upset not just by policy differences, but by a lack of trust between Seoul and Washington. And in Myanmar, an insurgency that perhaps planned to take up the banner of the oppressed Rohingya has instead precipitated their continued persecution.
In June 1997, the Tajik civil war ended. Twenty years later, as our cover’s author Christian Bleuer notes, Tajikistan is at peace. But the country is not prosperous and under President Emomali Rahmon – not exactly the sole “founder of peace” that his title claims – the societal and economic cleavages that fed the war remain. Bleuer, a researcher and consultant specializing in Central Asia and Afghanistan, explains the war and the peace; importantly, he argues that while a renewal of civil conflict is not necessarily a given, the Tajik people continue to face a bleak future under a predatory state.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was supposed to write the rules of the road for trade in Asia, with the United States and Japan in the driver’s seat. But Washington’s withdrawal – at the behest of President Donald Trump – has left the future of the TPP uncertain and the U.S.-Japan economic relationship at a crossroads. In his article, Tobias Harris, a fellow for economy, trade, and business at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, explores the opening movements in the Trump-era U.S.-Japan relationship.
Another relationship faced with uncertainty is the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Seoul and Washington are under new leadership, and both Presidents Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump have made statements in the past that suggest the potential for increased friction in the relationship. Woo Jung-Yeop, a visiting research fellow at the Sejong Institute, explores the reasons for concern about the alliance and argues that, more than policy differences, a lack of trust could mean trouble.
Last, Myanmar-based journalist Laignee Barron reports that Rohingya refugees who have fled persecution in Myanmar are finding themselves increasingly at risk abroad following the emergence of a new armed insurgency. Called a “paper tiger” by some regional analysts, the insurgents’ self-identification with the Rohingya puts the marginalized group increasingly at risk in countries – like India – where politicians tack fears of Muslim militancy onto hypernationalist tirades against refugees.
We hope you enjoy these stories and the many others awaiting you in the following pages.
Sincerely,
Shannon Tiezzi, Editor-in-Chief
Catherine Putz, Managing Editor