Will South Korea Recognize Kim Jong-un’s Authority?

Going back decades, North and South Korea have signed a number of agreements to respect each other’s systems of government and work toward peace on the Korean Peninsula until unification. A broad range of exchanges have been encouraged, including in journalism and the arts. The deals have largely failed, however, and the idea of journalism exchanges today would be laughed off. North Korea, for one, uses its highly controlled state media to regularly threaten Seoul’s existence with nuclear weapons (South Korea’s media, to be fair, is far from free of government influence).

The new president, Moon Jae-in, has no illusions about reviving such lofty ideas. But he does favor engaging North Korea. That may mean a push for a revamped Sunshine Policy, which would likely include dialogue, humanitarian aid, and economic exchanges. Moon sees this as a means to a more peaceful Korean Peninsula.

To get there, Moon says he must recognize leader Kim Jong-un as a counterpart and the ruler of the North Korean people. Recognition is the basis of having a conversation with Kim, says Yu-hwan Koh, a professor of North Korea Studies at Dongguk University and a foreign policy advisor to Moon.

It may sound simple, considering much of the world recognizes the North Korean state and leadership. However, former South Korean Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye refused to meet Kim and by all outward appearances did not acknowledge his rule. That coldness was at least in part due to the North’s weapons testing, which has rapidly increased in pace under Kim Jong-un. According to Koh, Lee and Park would not have a conversation with a country that has nuclear weapons. Basically, as they saw it, North Korea must give up the nukes or talks are impossible. It’s the same precondition that’s been encouraged by consecutive U.S. governments.

Then there’s Kim’s youth. South Korea, its allies, and other countries didn’t take the young, inexperienced leader seriously when he came to power in 2011, following the death of his father. Park Ju-hwa, a researcher and psychologist at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), says Kim didn’t fit the leadership model of the West. And most countries, Park says, didn’t want to treat him as a member of an official dialogue.

“If the CEO of Apple, for example, is in his 20s and has a horrible personality, would anyone want to recognize him as a legitimate CEO?” said Park.

Many governments were skeptical Kim could consolidate power in Pyongyang. That notion reinforced the theory of impending regime collapse. But North Korea hasn’t collapsed, and Kim doesn’t appear to be going anywhere.  

So far, Moon has aligned himself with Washington in saying that he’s open to talks with North Korea if the conditions are right. It’s unclear what that means, but Moon’s willingness alone to talk won’t lead to an invitation to Pyongyang from Kim. The North Korean leader has already put Moon in a tough spot only several weeks into his term as president. North Korea launched a ballistic missile just days after Moon’s inauguration. It launched more on May 21 and on May 29, the 10th and 11th launches so far this year.

Pyongyang, defiant, says it will keep testing missiles. If that’s the case, Moon may have to decide whether to continue the stalemate or risk angering Washington by trying to engage the North amid missile launches and possible nuclear tests. First through talks, and then economic engagement and humanitarian aid, Moon could seek a freeze of North Korea’s weapons programs, and ideally, an agreement from the North to denuclearize.

The freeze, analysts suggest, may be possible. But until North Korea achieves the ability to “wipe San Francisco off the map,” as North Korean scholar Andrei Lankov puts it, Pyongyang won’t consider a halt to its nuclear program. Dialogue will only go so far, Lankov adds. Tensions could decrease, but there would be no denuclearization.

The prospect of peaceful unification is even more bleak, according to Lankov: “I’m much more inclined to believe in the second coming of Christ in the near future than the unification of the two Koreas in such a way.”

By recognizing Kim Jong-un as a legitimate leader, Moon would also be implicitly acknowledging that North Korea is more stable than many people thought. And greater stability dims the prospect of unification, at least any time soon.

That would be hard for some South Koreans to stomach, in particular older generations. That includes Moon, who is 64. The president, regardless of whether he actually believes peaceful unification is possible, will push forward with a plan to achieve it, bound by a presidential oath and the constitution he swore to uphold. Both oath and constitution put a priority on unification.

One of Moon’s biggest challenges may be connecting with young people. Moon, speaking with TIME magazine, argued that young people are not “less enthusiastic” about unification, but focused on other things, such as finding a job. They’re also concerned about the cost they may have to shoulder. “That’s why they seem less in favor of reunification,” he said.

Moon told TIME the costs of unification would be “unbearable” for South Korea and far worse than the costs Germany bore to unify. To soften the blow, he said economic reunification must first be achieved. “Legal and political reunification,” he said, would ultimately follow.

There is a noticeable apathy among many young South Koreans when it comes to the North. Seonghoon Kim, 28, is a government contractor in Seoul. He says it would be best if South and North Korea unified. But, he says, the idea of them being separate states permanently “doesn’t sound bad.” He believes it would end hostilities.

Moon likely has little time to think about unification at the moment. To most South Koreans, current military tensions in the region are less pressing than economic reforms: job creation, tougher regulations on corporations, and more job creation.

When and if Moon decides conditions are right for dialogue with the North, the reality is stark.

South Korea’s goal, KINU’s Park says, is peace without nuclear weapons, but there must be a plan B: peace with nuclear weapons. Park says both would be incredibly hard to achieve, but seeing as “denuclearization is impossible,” it’s easy to see which option is more likely to play out if war or regime collapse don’t arrive first.