Abe's Cabinet Reshuffle, Explained

On August 3, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe executed the most important cabinet reshuffle of his tenure. It will not only make or break his chances for extending his time as leader of Japan beyond 2018, but yields valuable insight into the near-term Japanese political landscape. While the possibility of a potential cabinet reshuffle this summer has been floating around in the media since May, the reshuffle became a must-execute option for Abe, whose public approval ratings were falling fast amidst scandal, cabinet resignations, and other high profile issues. On the retreat, Abe had few options for this reshuffle — he would have to placate potential rivals within his own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) while seeking ways to shore up his own position as premier in the public eye.

In many ways, this reshuffle could have shown waning resolve from the prime minister, but on the contrary, Abe’s picks, though cautious, did not give too much ground. While there remain some important questions left to answer, this cabinet reshuffle showed that this administration still has a lot of fight left in it and that Abe still has his eyes set on key policy objectives through 2018 and beyond.

Setting for the Reshuffle

The last cabinet reshuffle saw Abe stack the deck with members from his home Hosoda faction and other ideological allies from the party. That cabinet did not work out for Abe, however. His justice minister (Katsutoshi Kaneda) mishandled the passage of the Anti-Conspiracy Law in the Diet, being unable to explain the details of the bill adequately in Diet interpellations and drawing unnecessary scrutiny. Abe’s original Reconstruction Minister Masahiro Imamura had to step down for repeated gaffes in press conferences. Defense Minister and protégé Tomomi Inada tried to weather the storm surrounding several of her missteps so she could make it to the reshuffle without resigning but failed to do so, leaving her post with less than a week to go. All of this coincided with Abe’s own woes associated with two prominent scandals (the Moritomo and Kake school scandals).

Those missteps afforded space for LDP rivals to accelerate posturing for post-Abe party leadership. When Abe entered 2017 with historically high approval ratings (greater than 50 percent across most polls) it seemed unthinkable that he would depart any sooner than 2020, but rapidly falling public opinion opened the door for some in the LDP to accelerate their timelines, with eyes on the next party presidential election in September 2018. Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso formally merged his faction with the Santo Faction and Tanigaki Group, making it the second largest in the LDP behind Abe’s Hosoda Faction. LDP powerhouse Shigeru Ishiba stepped up his media engagements, openly voicing his criticism of the Abe administration. All of this made for a relatively hostile political environment heading into this latest cabinet reshuffle.

While Abe would have liked to have timed the cabinet reshuffle for a point when he was in full control of the situation, he was in retreat and needed to make an intervention. In this cabinet reshuffle (like others) there were a total of 23 top-tier positions up for consideration, as well as the state/vice minister postings that will be announced later. Which factions would be favored? Would rivals seek to leave the cabinet to isolate themselves from Abe? Would Abe be able to right his ship using this reshuffle? Those and other questions circled in the media ahead of the August 3 announcements.

The Result

The following table shows the major postings announced on August 3.