Japan is Set for Another Election

Through September, speculation mounted that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would call for a snap election for the Lower House. As this issue went to print, Abe announced that he would dissolve the Diet during an extraordinary session on September 28. The election will be held in late October.

Given the anticipation that U.S. President Donald Trump and Abe will be meeting in Tokyo on November 6, Abe’s decision to call for a Lower House election so soon before his summit meeting with Trump does not make sense – even more so when one considers the current overwhelming majority that his ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito enjoys in both Lower and Upper Houses.

However, there are several factors that propelled Abe’s decision.

First, Abe seeks to use the election to renew the public’s mandate of his government. He said, in announcing his intention to dissolve the Diet that he would “seek the mandate of the people immediately."

It has been reported that Abe wants to place domestic issues such as social security reform and allocation of some of the revenue from the consumption tax increase – planned for 2019 – to increase government funding for child care support as the key pledge in LDP’s campaign platform. Although it is uncertain whether Abe will include his proposal for the revision of Article 9 of Japanese Constitution to formally legitimize the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as Japan’s professional military organization, another strong showing at the polls for the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition will strengthen his hands not only as he rides out the remainder of his current term as the LDP president, but also as he eyes re-election in 2018 to stay as the Japanese prime minister until 2021.

Furthermore, by holding an election in the next month, Abe can leverage the recent uptick in his approval ratings. Abe’s approval ratings had been slipping due to criticism over his handling of a series of scandals and reached their lowest point in July. As the tension over North Korea’s missile program increased, though, Abe’s approval rating bounced up by approximately 10 percent, climbing back up into the mid-40 percent range. Calling for an election while his approval rating is relatively high allows Abe to enter the campaign from a position of strength.

Another potential motivation is the disarrayed state of the opposition parties. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) – whose influence as the opposition party continues to wane after it lost the government to the LDP-Komeito coalition in December 2012 after a mere three years of rule – cannot seem to stop its decline, even after the recent election of former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara as its new president. After losing its more popular lawmakers, such as former deputy defense minister Akihisa Nagashima and former environment minister Goshi Hosono, it lost another two members in September. This exodus shows no sign of stopping. Further, the new political party organized by Masaru Wakata, a lawmaker seen as closely affiliated with Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, does not yet have enough members to be officially recognized, let alone put out coherent policies on a wide range of key issues from the economy to education. Abe can once again take advantage of the opposition’s disarray; it is a boon to the ruling coalition.

However, Abe’s decision to call for an election runs the risk of backfiring. First and foremost, while Abe’s approval rating has recovered recently, such a recovery reflects a preference for stability in leadership during times of crisis among the public. A crisis is no time to gamble with alternatives, the logic goes. In fact, according to an opinion poll conducted by the Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK) in September, the Japanese equivalent of the U.S. Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), 50 percent of those who said they support the Abe cabinet do so because it “looks better than other alternatives” while 36 percent of those who do not support Abe say they hold that view because they find Abe “untrustworthy.”  In other words, despite improved numbers, the public supports Abe not because they necessarily trust his leadership. This makes him vulnerable to scandals.

Second, Abe may be underestimating the opposition parties’ ability to run a campaign based on public frustration with the Abe government. While it is unlikely, should the opposition – particularly the DPJ and the new party linked to Koike – form a coalition and coordinate a platform based not only on criticism of the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition but also a set of policy alternatives, Abe may be unpleasantly surprised on election day, just as he was caught off-guard by the LDP’s big loss in the Tokyo metropolitan election on July 2. Such an upset would not only complicate Abe’s post-election agenda, but also trigger criticism within the LDP against Abe.

Finally, all the justifications for the snap election outlined above may makes sense for Abe’s political longevity beyond 2018, but little else. At a time when North Korea’s military provocations are reaching a new level of seriousness and Japan’s economy has not seen the structural and other reforms it needs, Abe’s decision to call a snap election that is estimated to cost Japanese taxpayers additional 60 to 70 billion yen – while practically creating a political vacuum for three weeks of political campaign – seems self-serving and irresponsible. 

However, the judgment will ultimately be up to Japanese voters.