Letter From the Editors

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the November 2017 issue of The Diplomat Magazine.

This month we parse developments in Asia – from climate change and big-power conflict to the nitty gritty details of economic headwinds – that will shape the future of the world. The economic fates of Vietnam and Australia will depend, in no small way, on China’s economy; whether the world can address rising global waters will depend, in no small way, on the economic calculus of needed reforms in Asia; and how well China and India can cooperate on big picture issues – like climate change – will depend on how well they settle bilateral tensions of the sort we saw this summer at Doklam. It’s all connected.

As politicians, scientists, and activists are set to descend on Bonn, Germany for the next UN climate change conference this month, Neil Bhatiya, a research associate for the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, notes in our cover story that the future, put at risk by climate change, will be won or lost in Asia. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement, the United States has seemingly abdicated leadership on this pivotal issue. Asia’s giants – China and India – are more critical than ever to turning the tide, but face challenges of their own as they seek a cleaner development path.

Even without environmental considerations, keeping an economy moving ahead is a challenge, as Edmund Sim, an international trade attorney, notes in his economic analysis of Vietnam. Sim hails the return of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to Vietnam after 11 years, but notes the changed circumstances at home and abroad. If APEC 2006 was Vietnam’s coming out party after an extended post-war reconstruction period, APEC 2017 will help test Vietnam’s ability to navigate between, as Sim puts it, “the calm waters of prosperity and rough shoals of social and security frictions.”

For 71 days this summer, Chinese and Indian military personnel faced off at the Bhutan-China-India tri-border in the Himalayas. Jeff Smith, a South Asia research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, explains that the standoff stands out because of its timing – not in relation to China’s Party Congress or the summer season – but as part of India’s growing geopolitical confidence (and distrust of China) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In our final lead, Anthony Fensom, an experienced business writer and communication consultant who writes regularly for our Pacific Money section, takes a look at Australia – the Lucky Country – which as of March has seen 103 straight quarters of economic expansion. Good policies in response to global economic turbulence helped Canberra avoid a recession, and proximity to China as it took off in the past decade didn’t hurt. But luck is ephemeral. Further trouble in the housing market or a downturn in China could tip Australia’s slowing growth into reverse.

We hope you enjoy these stories and the many others awaiting you in the following pages.

Sincerely,

Catherine Putz and Shannon Tiezzi