Trump and Japan’s North Korea Abductees

U.S. President Donald J. Trump will visit Japan from November 5-6, 2017. During his stay in Tokyo, he will have a bilateral summit meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He will also have an opportunity to meet with U.S. military service members stationed in Japan during his visit.

Given the ongoing tension over North Korea, how the United States and Japan can coordinate their respective approaches to North Korea is anticipated to be one of the main issues of Trump’s discussion with Abe. He is also expected to reaffirm U.S. treaty commitments to defend Japan.

That said, one detail about Trump’s itinerary in Japan that was on October 16 attracted a great deal of attention in Japan. The White House announced that Trump is scheduled to meet the families of the Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea several decades ago (more commonly referred to as “abductees”).

Trump first surprised the international community by speaking about Japanese victims of North Korean abduction in his speech before the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on September 19. His reference to North Korea kidnapping “a sweet 13-year-old Japanese girl from a beach in her own country to enslave her as a language tutor for North Korea's spies” was praised widely in Japan, both among media and within the government, heightening the expectation that the Trump administration will stand with Japan regarding its stance on the abduction issue. The announced meeting between Trump and the abductees’ families will likely further fuel such expectation, certainly among the families themselves and their supporters.

Needless to say, a meeting with the sitting U.S. president is not only a major victory for the abductees’ families, who have fought tirelessly for decades to account for their missing loved ones. It also demonstrates the high priority that Abe continues to attach to this issue in Japan’s approach to North Korea, which has been consistent. After all, Abe’s political ascent began during his tenure as the deputy chief cabinet secretary under then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in early 2000s when he became a champion of the abduction issue, advocating the position that Japan will not normalize its diplomatic relations with North Korea until the issue is resolved. Abe has reiterated his government’s commitment to do its utmost to bring the abductees home a number of times, including in his most recent speech at the UN General Assembly on September 20.

Few disagree with the proposition that the abduction issue is a high-priority issue for Japan vis-à-vis North Korea, and for Tokyo to engage with Pyongyang in any meaningful manner, Pyongyang needs to address this issue in a credible way. To date, the Japanese government has defined the “resolution” as either credibly accounting for or allowing to return to Japan everyone who has been confirmed as abducted by North Korea. Japan’s position has hardened as North Korea has repeatedly failed to adequately account for individuals Japan says were abducted and are believed to still be in North Korea, most recently in 2014.

However, Tokyo’s laser-like focus on the resolution of the abduction issue has, at times, put it at odds with other countries that have a stake in the denuclearization of North Korea. During the Six-Party Talks, for example, Japan’s unwillingness to engage with North Korea often resulted in Tokyo being able to play only a limited role in the negotiations. Now that Japan has cut off almost all economic ties with North Korea, by imposing economic sanctions adopted by UN Security Council as well as its own unilateral sanction on North Korea, Japan does not have meaningful leverage vis-à-vis- North Korea on any issue, including the abduction issue. This has deepened Japan’s dependence on the United States to heed Tokyo’s concern for the abduction issue as Washington tries to forge a way to reduce tension with Pyongyang.

So far, Japan has been comfortable with the U.S. approach toward North Korea because both countries focus on pressuring Pyongyang to back away from its provocative behavior. The real challenge comes, however, when there is a perceived opening for diplomatic negotiation toward the lessening of the tensions. Such an opening can come either through bilateral U.S.-North Korea discussions, or talks brokered by other stakeholder countries, including China. If Japan cannot adapt to a shift in the U.S. approach then, it runs the risk of being the odd man out again, with even less bilateral leverage against North Korea.

With repeated provocations from Pyongyang and clear demonstration of the progress of its nuclear weapons program, it is unlikely that the current U.S. position will drastically change in near future. If anything, given the inflammatory rhetoric Trump often uses on North Korea, Japan will have to worry more about the risk that escalating rhetoric could trigger genuine military actions on the Korean peninsula.

The current approach of “maximum pressure” on North Korea is, at present, the international community’s gambit to achieve the ultimate goal of denuclearization of North Korea. As both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis have repeatedly said, diplomacy must be earnestly pursued to bring about this result. Therefore, while Trump’s planned meeting with the abductees’ families is certainly encouraging to the families and their supporters, it should not lead to elevated expectations that the United States will hold the abductees issue as closely as Japan if, or when, North Korea comes to the table.