An Anti-Duterte Plot in the Philippines?

For months, headlines have spoken about an alleged plot to create political destabilization in the Philippines and remove President Rodrigo Duterte from power. Supporters of Duterte, and indeed, the president himself, have suggested some sort of plan to unseat him, while opponents have dismissed this as an attempt to smear legitimate opposition against him. This has continued to play out, with potentially important implications for Philippine politics.

Suggestions of an anti-Duterte plot are not new, and it continues to be a subject of active discussion in the Philippines. Duterte himself has exposed the alleged conspiracy and accused, among others, communists (the “Left”) as well as allies of former Philippine President Benigno Aquino III (“yellows”), led by the Liberal Party, of being part of it.

The idea of an anti-Duterte plot doesn’t just exist in Duterte’s head or in the media. It has been echoed by officials as well, such as Solicitor General Jose Calida, who even revealed that his office is already preparing a case against those involved in subversive activities.

“Before, it was the Yellows. Then they changed the color to white, and now there are also reds coming in, and members of the clergy are also joining the fray,” Calida told the media.

Calida’s comments reflect the broad range of actors implicated in this so-called plot, with different backgrounds as well as agendas. But it is also linked to recent events, most notably the September 21 protest, which gathered tens of thousands of people across the country against the unabated extrajudicial killings under the Duterte government.

The protest united various groups making a stand against human rights abuses allegedly perpetrated by state forces. Since July 2016, when Duterte assumed the presidency, an estimated 13,000 drug-related killings have been recorded by the media and human rights groups. Meanwhile, Duterte’s directive to scrap the peace talks with communist forces has intensified the all-out war operations in the southern island of Mindanao, which displaced hundreds of farmers and indigenous peoples. 

There is no doubt that Duterte’s strongman image, heavy-handed policies, and authoritarian streak have antagonized many groups. But is there really a coherent plot to unseat him?

Senator Francis Pangilinan of the Liberal Party captured the sentiment shared by Duterte’s opponents when he said the government is merely trying to evade accountability for the excesses of the controversial “war on drugs.”

“They’re [the administration] just looking for something to divert attention of media and the public from the controversies of corruption, drug smuggling of the Davao group, and the ineffective war on drugs that only resulted in killings every day,” Pangilinan said.

One of those accused of protecting the drug smuggling operations in Davao cited by Pangilinan is the president’s son, who is vice mayor of the city. 

As for the group which organized the September 21 protest at Luneta Park in Manila, the leftist alliance Bayan insisted that what Duterte saw as a conspiracy was a “broad movement involving different groups and personalities with different political affiliations.” Church groups, students, and artists are said to part of this growing movement against the rising tyranny in the country.

“The President is the one creating his own ghosts. There is no Left-Yellow conspiracy,” Bayan said in a statement.

Leftist lawmakers belonging to the Makabayan coalition also dismissed Duterte’s conspiracy charge as fake news. But they also hinted that Leftist groups are ready to march with other political forces in fighting government abuse.

“Whatever color of the political spectrum whether they be Red, Yellow, or whatnot, we are being compelled by present circumstances and the march of history to fight separately, and/or jointly against tyranny,” the lawmakers said.

Meanwhile, the Communist Party warned that Duterte intends to “monopolize political power” and to “silence all who disagree.”

“Duterte is intolerant of all opposition and dissent. He intends on monopolizing political power. Duterte wants to clampdown and silence all who disagree with his policies and methods,” the party said.

This is not the first time that government officials have spoken about some kind of plot to undermine the Duterte government. Early this year, some lawmakers wanted to probe a U.S. diplomat for allegedly drafting a blueprint on how to replace Duterte – in this case a plot from the outside rather than inside the Philippines. Domestically, even the country’s vice president was accused of conspiring with anti-Duterte groups.

Whether it is real or not, the conspiracy itself continues to be a newsworthy item in the Philippines’ active media landscape. But beyond the sensationalism of it all, allegations of a plot and Duterte’s response to it could have other broader implications too. For instance, since Duterte has publicly condemned the Left for joining forces with the “yellows,” might this signify his intention to expel the remaining Leftist members of his cabinet? Will this in turn finally doom the prospects of the peace talks between his government and the communists?

Duterte’s bigger problems might also only be starting to unfold. His public trust rating is down; economic indicators are less than optimistic; there’s an ongoing probe into his family wealth; the anti-drug campaign has been criticized by 39 countries; and the “successful” anti-terror war in Marawi – which still remains unresolved – is emerging to be a Pyrrhic victory as casualties continue to mount.

The anti-Duterte plot may indeed eventually prove to be nothing more than a distraction. But as opposition mounts against Duterte and his own popularity dips, the prospect of this fueling some kind of showdown between the strongman and his detractors is only rising by the day. The outcome of this struggle could come at the detriment of the country’s stability, democracy, and prosperity.