Fiji’s Census: Slowing Growth and Withheld Data

In January, the Fiji Bureau of Statistics released the first data from the country’s latest census. The census was conducted in September and October last year, and was the first official survey of the country since 2007. Fiji’s population now stands at 884,887, which is an increase of 47,616 people over the decade since the previous census. The annual rate of population growth has been decreasing, from 2 percent in 1986 to 0.8 percent in 1996 and 0.6 percent in 2017.

While the slow population growth rate has been attributed to low birth rates as well as emigration, the census also shows that Fiji still maintains a reasonably young population, with 69 percent of people being under the age of 40. The country’s median age is now 27.5, an increase from 25.1 in 2007. It would not be considered a “youth bulge,” but does provide the country with a solid working age population to fuel its development.

Part of this development stems from increasing urbanization, a global trend. There has been a notable shift in Fiji’s urban population, with 55.9 percent of Fijians now living in urban areas, up from 50.7 percent in 2007. Part of this increase has been attributed to shifts in administrative boundaries, but also due to Fiji’s struggling sugar cane industry, and the wider variety of opportunities that cities like Suva, Lautoka, and Nadi can provide over rural areas.

While these figures give a broad overview of Fiji’s trajectory, the data that has the greatest effect on the shape of the country has been quarantined by the government.

The ethnic composition of the country, particularly data on the two main ethnic groups – iTaukei and Indo-Fijians – remains a highly political subject. Fiji’s four coups in the past 30 have all stemmed from issues relating to ethnic composition and political influence.

Although the 2017 census did ask questions about ethnic background and religious affiliation, the results are being held back by the government of Frank Bainimarama for a number of reasons. The 2013 constitution, created by then-military dictator Bainimarama (now democratically elected as prime minister), was an attempt to create “ethnically blind” legal institutions in the country, removing the race-based electoral system, and simply referring to all citizens as “Fijian,” regardless of background. By withholding the data about the country’s ethnic composition, the government seems to be following this prescription in the hope of not fueling ethnic tensions.

However, the Parliament’s former speaker, Pita Nacuva, has challenged the idea that this census data would cause division within the country, stating that it is required in order to fully understand the country’s needs. “If there was a need to assist a particular race in terms of economic development, that does not mean that you are favouring one particular race,” Nacuva arged. “It is important to bring up others who are behind so that we can all be moving together.”

The government’s calculations may not only concern social stability. With an election due to be held by September, Bainimarama’s government may not be inclined to release data that could be useful to political parties who appeal to a particular ethnic community. This could be seen as either an attempt to continue to promote an ethnically blind political landscape, or to provide a distinct strategic advantage for his FijiFirst party’s own political approach, which seeks to transcend the country’s ethnic cleavages.

What also may be a factor is a certain degree of embarrassment on the part of the government relating to the continued outward migration of Indo-Fijians from the country. The group’s educated classes, in particular, have been leaving. Prior to the 1987 coup that removed the multi-ethnic Labor Party from government, ethnic Indians accounted for around 50 percent of Fiji’s population. By the time of the 2007 census this percentage had declined to around 38 percent of the population, and according to Brij Lal from the Australian National University, by 2013 this percentage had further shrunk to around 32 percent.

It seems likely that the census data would reveal this trend to be ongoing. Despite Bainimarama’s attempt to create a less ethnically divided Fijian society, it seems from the country’s small rate of population growth since the 2007 census that Indo-Fijians are continuing to leave in significant numbers. Preventing the release of the census data concerning Fiji’s ethnic composition may also be an attempt to disguise this trend.