Timor-Leste’s Personality Politics

On May 12, Timorese voters will go to the polls for the second time in ten months to elect the country’s parliament, as the seventh constitutional government has failed to gain parliamentary support. The early election became inevitable after the political deadlock that has paralyzed the young democracy, creating a state of uncertainty since the parliamentary election in July 2017.

The coming election is particularly significant as it will again test the strength of democracy in Timor-Leste. This time around, there is a different national mood compared to previous elections. While Timorese voters recognize that the early election is necessary, there are concerns over the costs of traveling home to vote for the second time in less than a year. Some observers foresee a lower turnout compared to last year. In addition, new uncertainty has brought out concerns over the country’s politics. Some fear a return of the political violence last seen in 2006 and others see the current deadlock as yet another indication of the dominance of fractious political elites in Timor-Leste’s politics.

The early election also shows that prolonged debate among the country’s leadership is still largely personality-driven and continues to be dominated by high-profile resistance leaders. The calling of the early election triggered questions about the principles of consensus politics and political inclusion, which leaders always pledge themselves to in the spirit of democracy. It is crucial that the early election settle the power struggle among political parties and between the coalitions so that Timor-Leste’s government can start governing properly.

The July 2017 Election and the Minority Government

In a country of just 1.2 million people, almost two dozen political parties contested Timor-Leste’s last parliamentary election in July. Around 77 percent of Timorese cast votes. The peaceful election process gained compliments from international electoral monitoring bodies as it proceeded successfully without any significant problems or violence.

The 2017 parliamentary election witnessed the expected victory of the two major political parties, the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin) and the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), headed by former revolutionary leader Xanana Gusmao. The results saw Fretilin in the lead with 23 seats, while the CNRT secured 22 seats. The new People’s Liberation Party (PLP), led by former president Taur Matan Ruak won eight seats, the Partido Democratico (PD) locked in seven seats, and Kmanek Haburas Unidade Nasional Timor Oan (Khunto), also a new party, secured five seats.

After several rounds of negotiations and a few months, the seventh constitutional government was formed. It comprised two political parties, Fretilin and the PD, with a total of 30 seats out of the 65-seat parliament. An earlier agreement between Fretilin, the PD, and Khunto had fallen apart when the youth party withdrew from the coalition at the last minute.

Three opposition parties – CNRT, PLP, and Khunto – formed the opposition coalition, called the “parliamentary majority alliance” or AMP. Together, the AMP held a 35-seat majority in parliament. While the Fretilin-led minority government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri, hoped to maintain stability and ensure peace through political inclusion, it proved unable to pass policy programs or any budget bills after rejections by the AMP in October and December 2017. Protracted instability in the country’s administration posed a threat to Timor-Leste’s fragile economy.

The most unexpected part of the political deadlock in parliament was the creation of the minority government led by Alkatiri, secretary-general of Fretilin, in the first place. While it is not unusual for no single political party to gain a majority in parliament, usually these situations are resolved by forming a majority alliance. Many expected Fretilin and the CNRT to continue their informal power-sharing agreement, which began in 2015. However, Gusmao announced the CNRT would not join Fretilin in a new coalition after the July election. Instead, the party moved into opposition. Back in 2015, both parties had agreed to put aside their historical differences to ensure political stability; many had predicted before the election that the unity government would remain in place in line with the principle of consensus politics. Gusmao’s move thus came as a surprise.

The split between the country’s two dominating personalities, Alkatiri and Gusmao, puts the country at stake. Despite past disagreements, they achieved consensus after 2015 through their informal power-sharing agreement. The relationship, however, did not last long.

The decision by Gusmao to leave the unity government with Fretilin came suddenly; he had publicly supported Fretilin’s presidential candidate, Francisco “Lu-Olo” Guterres, in March 2017 before the parliamentary election. Gusmao also paved the way for Fretilin’s younger leader, Rui Maria de Araujo, to become prime minister, in a shift away from the older revolutionary leaders who have dominated Timorese politics since the restoration of independence from Indonesia in 2002. Some observers have said that one of the main reasons for the Fretilin-CNRT split is that Alkatiri, by reassuming the premiership after the 2017 parliamentary election, broke the mutual understanding he had with Gusmao to hand the reins to a younger generation.

Now, an early election driven by the rivalries of the political elites is putting the young nation to a new, crucial test. The current situation has left Timor-Leste without a budget in place for 2018, impacting not only the public sector but many businesses as well.

During his announcement of the dissolution of the parliament, Lu-Olo reiterated that “only the people can help us out of the impasse… all go and vote again to strengthen our democracy.” In the same spirit, in his statement on the early election Alkatiri highlighted that the government would enable a transparent and fair election, despite the current budgetary limitations. He also said that the conditions would be created for people to exercise their right to vote in the early election, including by increasing the number of polling booths. The caretaker government will also consider how to make it possible for students and workers who are in Dili, the capital, to vote there instead of making the journey home.

One feature of the political crisis is the role of personality politics in Timor-Leste. Some have portrayed Gusmao’s lengthy absence from Timor-Leste as giving an opportunity to a younger generation to rule. Even if that’s the case, the way the situation has unfolded highlights how crucial he still is in deciding the direction of Timorese politics.

At the same time, the current political deadlock also highlights another faultline in Timor-Leste, between resistance leaders who were active on the external diplomatic front during the Indonesian occupation and those who were involved in the military resistance out in the jungle.

Implications for Democracy

Now that the early election is confirmed, it signals that the constitutional crisis will be solved through legal channels and not through force or violence. Compared with many countries in the Southeast Asia region, Timor-Leste has shown maturity in resolving its political struggles.

Nevertheless, the 2018 early election could possibly be far more tense than the election last year. The 2017 election took place in an unprecedented moment of cooperation between the major parties; that’s no longer the case. Despite the political turmoil, generally Timorese society remains calm and has accepted the decision from the government that another election is the best option. Many expressed relief at the decision to return to the polls, and see it as a necessary move in the spirit of democracy – another chance to decide fairly who should run the country.

The whole country is aware that the current crisis could revive memories of the 2006 crisis and with it the specter of political and social instability. As a result, everyone has called for the political parties to work together to establish a consensus for political stability. Timor-Leste wishes to avoid the risk of losing the hard-won political stability forged over the last 16 years. Thus far, people are carrying on their daily lives as usual and there have been no street protests. This demonstrates that the checks and balances in the Timor-Leste’s political system are functioning, with strong executive accountability to parliament.

While waiting for the election to be held on May 12, the Fretilin-PD will act as the caretaker government. Political uncertainty remains, as there is the possibility for Gusmao to bring further surprises in the months ahead. Gusmao’s charisma, popularity, and legitimacy as a former resistance commander remains the cornerstone of the CNRT’s (and now the AMP coalition’s) appeal. The continued absence of Gusmao from the country amid the rising political crisis has prompted curiosity about his next move in the weeks leading to the election. No one is quite sure where he is as of this writing, although most say Australia.

In the 2007 and 2012 elections, CNRT and Fretilin were fierce rivals. However Gusmao’s move to reshuffle his cabinet by appointing Fretilin’s younger political figure Rui Araujo as his successor reconciled the differences between the two major parties. Now that the seventh government has fallen, 2018 is a significant year in the history of Timor-Leste as it sees the rivalry between Fretilin and CNRT reborn.

The upcoming early election is another important test of Timor-Leste’s stability. The stakes for both major parties, Fretilin and CNRT, are high, having promised political stability at whatever cost. A new election, while welcomed by many, brings risks to all parties, including Fretilin. For the political parties, a new election will not only be a financial challenge, but lower voter turnout is also very possible.

The challenge for the early election will be how candidates diversify their campaign manifestos and programs to convince on-the-fence voters, as well as to retain old voters. This election will also strengthen the debate about a generational gap in Timor-Leste. Even though the old generations are still dominating the scene, a younger generation of leaders is emerging.

The political parties have adapted and updated their strategies looking toward the new election. The AMP established a formal coalition soon after the call for an early election, and it will clearly be a formidable force. Another important development is the emergence of the National Democratic Forum (FDN), comprised of a group of smaller parties that did not win any seats in the July 2017 election.

While Timorese politics is in transition, it is now not new for the country’s political parties to work in coalition or form coalitions. Looking back, Timorese politics have been thus far notable for their dynamic political competition. Since the restoration of independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has had competitive elections universally recognized as free and fair. Even when tensions were high during the 2006 internal political struggle, presidential and parliamentary elections were held in 2007 with minor incidents of violence.

In 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranked Timor-Leste as the most democratic country in the Southeast Asia region and the fifth most democratic in Asia. Despite the obstacles it faced then and at the present time, Timor-Leste has shown strong determination in its commitment to democracy and optimism toward the future. Just as in 1999, during the UN referendum that witnessed the separation of Timor-Leste from Indonesian occupation, the Timorese commitment to democracy remains firm and strong.

In 2017, the March 20 presidential election and the July 22 parliamentary election were the first elections held in Timor-Leste without assistance from the international community since the UN Mission departed in 2012. The twin 2017 elections were a significant milestone and success; both were held in an orderly and peaceful manner with no major incidents reported. Through the election, the Timorese showed how much they valued their hard-won democratic rights. For this alone, the Timorese deserve credit for their successful conduct of elections, as this is a major achievement in the maturing of Timor-Leste’s young democracy. The country has been able to move forward through an understanding of forgiveness and awareness that political stability is particularly crucial for a young democracy nation.

Looking Ahead

Though it remains a huge challenge for a new government to gain more support from the people, it is not impossible. The bloody struggle against Indonesian occupation during 1975-1999 brought the East Timorese together. The people also realize the costs of the 2006 political crisis, which escalated into a set of clashes between the authorities and civilians, with over 100 people killed and more than 150,000 people displaced. Sixteen years on and the Timorese people have demonstrated the true value of democracy; that is, despite polarizing opinions and differences in ideological beliefs, they are consistently united. Furthermore, Timorese are aware that peace is not only the absence of conflict; it must also be complemented with sustainable development.

A major issue lies in the fact that Timor-Leste’s social and economic development have not proceeded in parallel with the maturity of democracy within the country. Whatever the result of the May election, the new government will need deal with diversifying Timor-Leste’s resource-dependent economy. Another issue is the government’s ambitious infrastructure projects, which are proceeding at a rapid pace, with possible negative implications for the environment.

Timor-Leste has a tremendous opportunity for development. While personality politics is unlikely to go away, the decentralization of political power is crucial to empower the Timorese people for self-governance at the grassroots level, so as to enable them to build their capacity for socioeconomic development. Ahead of the early election, the political parties should emphasize renewed efforts on democratic decentralization so that marginalized groups can be empowered in order to move toward sustainable democracy in the midst of challenging conditions such as poverty, land right issues, illiteracy, low employment, corruption, and cronyism. With the early election, concerns over money politics have also increased.

Most importantly, people are optimistic that the political value of stability will prevail through the call for an early election to solve the political impasse. The hope is that the situation will go back to normal after the May election.

Democracy is highly valued in Timor-Leste and it is reflected in the spirit of the Timorese during this political impasse. Whatever the makeup of the next government, it faces huge challenges and some very difficult negotiations on much-needed reforms to keep such political deadlock from happening again. Ultimately, the real test for this young democracy’s survival is whether tolerance and understanding of the different aspirations of the people can prevail for the betterment of the country in its process of democratic consolidation.

Moving beyond electoral democracy, what Timorese society needs now is a credible political force that can clearly define national development processes that address important issues and challenges encountered by Timorese people – a party or a coalition that is designed not only to compete in the political arena, but also to provide space and opportunity for all Timorese in the spirit of inclusivity.

For a country that only won its hard-fought battle for independence 16 years ago, Timor-Leste has traveled a long way to reach where it is today. Although an early election had to be called, the calmness of the people in accepting it shows a remarkable maturity and represents hope for the country. Irrespective of which party or coalition comes first, their ability to coexist will remain central to political stability in Timor-Leste. Therefore, the election this time around is not merely about who will be in power. More importantly, the newly elected members of parliament and the elected government will impact how the young country develops and matures.