Cambodia’s Ersatz Election

PHNOM PENH – In the weeks building up to Cambodia’s last general election in 2013, Phnom Penh was alive with anticipation ahead of what was expected to be the toughest test Prime Minister Hun Sen had faced in a generation.

Supporters of the newly formed Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) drove in the thousands through the capital, waving flags, blaring techno, and holding rallies. The atmosphere reached fever pitch a few days before the vote, as opposition leader Sam Rainsy was met by tens of thousands of supporters upon returning home from exile after a royal pardon removed the threat of a jail term.

The build up to the upcoming general election on July 29 will be a very different story.

A lot has changed in Cambodia over the past five years. The 2013 election was even closer than many observers predicted, with the CNRP coming within seven seats of victory. The opposition accused the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) of widespread vote rigging and embarked on protracted mass protests, culminating in the chant “Hun Sen, step down!” reverberating around Phnom Penh’s major boulevards toward the end of the year. 

“People expressing themselves, from children to the elderly; it was an amazing moment for democracy and that’s the way democracy should be – letting people say what they have to say,” said Mu Sochua, a former CNRP deputy, from Stockholm.

“There was really a culture of peace, of freedom and I think those words would describe the protests in 2013.”

The demonstrations – which dovetailed with wider calls for labor and land rights – were brought to an abrupt and bloody end when security forces opened fire on protesters on January 3, 2014, killing at least five people.

Following a failed “culture of dialogue” between the two parties after the opposition eventually agreed to take its seats in parliament in mid-2014, Hun Sen tightened the screws further and further on the CNRP in the ensuing years. Sam Rainsy was back in exile by late 2015 to avoid jail on charges widely thought to be politically motivated, leaving CNRP deputy Kem Sokha – the former rival he formed a precarious coalition with in 2012 – to take the party’s helm.

In September last year, following a strong performance by the CNRP in the commune elections, hundreds of police stormed Kem Sokha’s house in the dead of night, arresting him on “treason” charges widely derided as a cynical move by the ruling party aimed to neutralize the opposition ahead of the crucial 2018 national ballot. The final edition of The Cambodia Daily, which shut down after being slapped with a heavily disputed $6.3 million tax bill, ran the headline “Descent Into Outright Dictatorship.”

Within months, the CNRP had been completely outlawed over accusations it was attempting to overthrow the government through a so-called “color revolution” aided by the United States, despite there being scant evidence of such a plot. The CNRP parliamentary seats were distributed among three parties that won less than 5 percent of the 2013 vote combined.

The Battleground for Legitimacy

With the ruling party’s only realistic opponent dissolved, many observers have branded Cambodia as the world’s youngest de facto one-party state. The 2018 election has been widely written off as an illegitimate sham despite the registration of 20 parties.

“How can it be free if people don't have the chance to choose the party that they want? The party of their choice is not there,” said Mu Sochua, who has been living in exile since last year.

The battleground in the eyes of the CPP appears to have shifted from beating the CNRP to legitimizing an election void of the ruling party’s only realistic rival. With a CPP landslide almost certain, the ruling party appears anxious that voter turnout could be drastically lower than recent elections involving the CNRP. Ing Moly, a ruling CPP official, claimed in May that those who refuse to cast their ballot “love dictatorship” and are “supporting rebel groups,” The Phnom Penh Post reported.

“This may seem paradoxical to the point of being absurd, but the bottom line is that the holding of multi-party elections remains important to CPP legitimacy beyond the dissolution of the CNRP,” said Astrid Norén-Nilsson, author of Cambodia's Second Kingdom: Nation, Imagination, and Democracy.

“The CNRP will claim the ballots that have not been cast. In that sense, the CNRP has made sure that the election – that is now about participation versus abstention – still remains a contest between the CPP, which is competing, and the CNRP, which is not. With a large voter turnout it will be a lot easier for the CPP to move on after the elections just as if nothing has happened.”

There are varying opinions from CNRP supporters ahead of the vote, with many planning to heed the calls of exiled opposition figures to boycott the ballot, while others have vowed to get behind other parties.

“I know that the next election will be just a joke – one-sided politics – and that has nothing to do with democracy,” said Thearo Nuch, 25, who voted for the CNRP in 2013. “I’m going to stay away for this election because there is no point of doing so. And I know that so many people will stay out of the election.”

But Sarath Soung, 39, who also voted for the CNRP in the last election, said that he had decided to get behind the Grassroots Democracy Party (GDP).

“I think the best… political party in Cambodia after CNRP is only GDP because I have known GDP since Mr. Kem Ley’s life,” he said, in reference to the popular political analyst who helped set up the GDP and was gunned down in 2016 in what many believe was a politically motivated assassination.

“If they don't come to vote, I think it’s no good for the real situation because the current government can do everything to destroy democracy in Cambodia,” he added.

To Stand or Not?

For Sam Inn, secretary-general of the GDP, a party that was founded in 2015 and won just five council seats out of more than 11,000 in the commune elections, sitting back and allowing the CPP free pickings of parliamentary seats without a fight would be a further setback for democracy.

“Even though it is one of the controversial elections after the dissolution of the CNRP, it provides a good opportunity to speak up about our work and to provide a new alternative for the Cambodian people,” he said.

“What do you get from the boycott? If more people do not go to vote, you give opportunities to the ones who go to vote for the CPP.”

There have also been a number of new parties sprouting up in recent months, including the Khmer Will Party, founded by Kong Monika, son of former senior CNRP official Kong Korm.

Kong Monika said that boycotting the election would go “against the principles of democracy” but raised a popular theory among the public – that some of the parties running are backed by the ruling party to bolster a facade of democracy.

“We’ve noticed that some small parties have originated from people in the ruling party. We have no doubt that they are just a puppet of the CPP but we are not,” he said.

Perhaps the party accused of being a CPP puppet more so than any other is the Cambodian Youth Party, due to numerous legal complaints filed to the courts against political rivals and critics of the government by its leader Pich Sros. He flatly denies that accusation.

“If I am under CPP party, I would have a beautiful office, a beautiful building for my party. But for the real situation, you see, not so good,” he said in his office, before accusing both Hun Sen and Sam Rainsy of not having the voters’ interests “in their hearts.”

Scouting Loyalists

Despite the CNRP being taken out of the way, the ruling party seems unsure about who its supporters actually are and is attempting to scout out those it deems true loyalists. A business owner, who requested anonymity, said a village chief used a photo of his wife to sign them up to the ruling party without asking permission.

They were later handed a “CPP Party Family Book,” which states that the head of the family “must guarantee that all members go to vote, know how to vote, and that all family members must vote for the CPP.”

“The local Sangkat [commune office] have 'helped' us over the years (for tea money) and have photos in stock apparently,” he wrote in a message, using a term used widely across Asia meaning a bribe to government official for a favor.

“This is their way of reminding us that ‘peace and development’ are a result of the CPP and we should repay the favors,” he said, adding that he would in fact vote for the GDP.

Government spokesman Phay Siphan said there was no law compelling people to vote, and stated that democracy was alive and well without the CNRP.

“We have 20 political parties that will challenge in that election coming, compared to last time there was only eight,” he said.

“Sam Rainsy said all political parties are Hun Sen puppets, but for me, I respect those people because they are not CPP and they have an opportunity to challenge the CPP. Maybe they will absorb the 3 million people who so-called ‘support’ the CNRP,” he added.

Hun Sen’s Anxieties

The election comes amid increasingly authoritarian tactics deployed by the ruling party over the past year, including the targeting of independent media and civil society.

Political analyst Meas Nee put the political crisis down to the prime minister’s fears of losing his iron grip on power.

“If the CPP’s worries are at a 1, Hun Sen is worrying at a 10,” he said. “At the level of power he has, and the fortune he has earned for him and his family, if anything goes wrong with his politics, he believes that it will ruin not only the CPP but the whole fortune of his family.”

Kem Monovithya, an opposition figure and daughter of Kem Sokha, said the ruling party still sees Cambodia as their property.

“I am sad that the ruling party for over 30 years still cannot tolerate the idea of democracy, the idea of coexisting with people of different opinions,” she wrote in an email. “I believe they have an insecure sense of entitlement, that after 1979 they are the saviors, the owners of the country, therefore, they will not allow a fair election to happen where we can be running the country instead.”

What Next?

While many have perceived the CPP’s pursuit of political rivals and critics over the past year within the context of the looming election, it is less clear how things will take shape after the poll, presuming the ruling party wins a large majority.

Meas Nee said he wouldn’t be surprised if the screws were loosened either before or after the election, perhaps in the form of releasing political prisoners.

However, Chak Sopheap, executive director of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights, said the increasing influence of China in Cambodian affairs cast doubt on whether the environment for open debate and free speech would improve after July.

“The one significant difference this time is the geopolitical landscape, and the newfound reliance on Chinese aid rather than more democratically-minded patrons,” she wrote in an email. “The recent changes to the constitution do not bode well – they indicate an intention to bring about long-term, regressive change that would limit fundamental freedoms and civic space. However, it is too early to draw any conclusions.”

The reaction from the international community is also not yet clear, despite widespread criticism of the dissolution of the CNRP. Astrid Norén-Nilsson predicted that the European Union and possibly the United States would probably feel the need to signal that it won’t be “business as usual.”

“Yet ultimately the EU and U.S. probably do not want to play into the government’s revival of Cold War rhetoric. The sense that staying engaged is necessary to influence government action will likely come out dominant, propelled by the urge to balance Chinese influence,” she said.

Looking to the future, Mu Sochua said Hun Sen was playing a potentially dangerous game.

“It shows how desperate Mr. Hun Sen is to win an election that he can’t win,” she said.

“But you can’t put the genie back into the bottle because, for the past 20 years, we and civil society have been building democracy,” she added.

“If there is more oppression, there will be violence and that is not what we want.”