Who Will Build Japan’s New Stealth Fighter Jet?

Japan is looking to deploy a new fifth-generation air superiority fighter by the 2030s to gradually replace its aging fleet of Mitsubishi F-2 multirole fighters, built under license by Japanese defense contractor Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The fighters first entered service with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) in 1981.

This ambitious defense project, tentatively named the (F-3) Future Fighter Program, is slated to become one of the most expensive defense deals in Japan’s history. According to Japan’s Ministry of Defense (MoD), the JASDF has a requirement for up to 100 new stealth fighters, which according to conservative estimates could mean program costs of $40 billion or more.

Japan has been seeking to procure a fifth-generation air superiority fighter for over a decade.  Initially, Japan’s MoD wanted to procure Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor. However, the U.S. aircraft maker was denied an export license by Congress to sell its F-22 Raptor stealth air superiority fighter to Japan in the 2000s over concerns about sharing the aircraft’s sensitive technology with a foreign country.

As a result of the refusal to sell the F-22, Japan opted for the U.S.-made F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter jet as a stopgap measure. In 2011, Japan placed an order for 42 F-35As through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales Program. There is also speculation that the Japanese MoD will place a follow-up order of 25 additional F-35A fighter jets.

While the F-35A is a formidable aircraft, it does not fulfill the JASDF’s requirements for a fifth-generation air superiority fighter. For example, the F-35A is less stealthy than the F-22 (its cross-radar section is over 10 times greater), has less than half the range of the F-22 (the F-35 has a single engine), and also lacks long-range air-to-air missiles.

Indeed, the F-35A was never designed as an air superiority fighter. “It was designed to be the multipurpose, data-integration platform that could do all kinds of things in the air-to-ground arena including dismantle enemy, integrated, air defenses. It had an air-to-air capability, but it was not intended to be an air-superiority fighter,” a former U.S. Air Force general has stated.

Initially, Japan had three options for its F-3 stealth fighter program. First, develop an indigenous air superiority fighter from scratch with little to no outside support. Second, partner with a foreign aircraft maker and license-produce a new aircraft; in other words produce a semi-indigenous aircraft that includes Japanese technology. Third, import or upgrade an existing platform.

For a number of years, Japan tried to explore the option of an indigenously designed and built stealth fighter. The result was the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ experimental fifth-generation fighter technology demonstrator X-2 “Shinshin.” According to Japan’s Acquisition Technology & Logistics Agency, design and development costs have amounted to over $360 million.

A consortium of 220 Japanese firms, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries as the primary contractor developing the X-2’s fuselage, were working on the project for over a decade. (U.S. aircraft maker Lockheed Martin quietly supported the project.) The technology demonstrator featured a powerful active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar and an automatic so-called Self Repairing Flight Control Capability.

The X-2 took to the skies for the first time in 2016. However, the program was stopped earlier this year. The reasons for the cancellation are manifold. First, the research and development costs were higher than expected. Second, Japan’s military aviation industry lacked critical skills, especially when it came to developing a next-generation aircraft engine featuring a 3D thrust vectoring capability.

Following the scrapping of the X-2 program, Japan has been exploring the option of teaming up with a foreign partner or partners to speed up the development of a new stealth fighter. According to sources within the Japanese MoD, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, BAE Systems (a part of European defense contractor MBDA), and other European defense contractors have reportedly expressed interest.

The frontrunner to partner with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries remains Lockheed Martin, which has submitted a design proposal that combines features from the F-22 and F-35 in response to a request for information by the MoD. The hybrid design reportedly would combine the F-22’s airframe with the F-35’s electronic suite. The new hybrid variant would also be twin-engined and specialized for air superiority.

The new aircraft would also be somewhat larger than the F-22 given that the JASDF would also want to deploy the new aircraft for anti-surface war missions over long distances in a secondary role. This would mean that the aircraft would have to be capable of carrying larger, long-range supersonic anti-ship missiles in its internal bay.

Lockheed Martin’s proposal, however, has been dismissed as too expensive by Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Instead of a F-35/F-22 hybrid variant, ministry officials have stated that the JASDF should procure additional F-35s. A decision as to what direction the (F-3) Future Fighter Program will go is expected in the coming month, as the MoD wants to include funding for the program in the next Medium Term Defense Program for fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2023.

It is important to understand that domestic industrial cooperation will be a core component of the stealth fighter program. Japan’s military aviation industry, which also expected to play a larger role in the F-35A program (e.g. manufacturing part of the F-35’s fuselage) – an expectation that has far been unfulfilled –  intends to supply critical components, including the avionics, the radar, communication and navigation systems, as well as possibly even the engine (co-developed with foreign support.)

It is likely that any new fighter jet will be built on an existing Western aircraft design. While Lockheed Martin remains the favorite, it is too early to dismiss European aircraft makers. For one thing, Japan and the United Kingdom agreed to explore options for jointly developing an fifth-generation stealth fighter jet in 2017. Furthermore, the two countries, in cooperation with other European partners, are also are co-developing a Joint New Air-to-Air Missile (JNAAM).

The MoD expects whatever stealth fighter aircraft will be procured to enter service by the middle of the 2030s. Given the intense security environment in East Asia and growing Chinese and North Korean military capabilities, this will not be a decade too soon.