India’s Controversial Defense Deal with Russia

India’s likely procurement of Russian-made S-400 Triumf long-range air defense systems (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler) was one of the most contentious issues during the first ever “two-plus-two” meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj, and Indian Minister of Defense Nirmala Sitharaman, held in New Delhi, India on September 6.

Despite the threat of U.S. economic sanctions, India appears dead set on moving forward with the purchase of five regiments of S-400s, touted as one of the world’s most effective interceptor-based air defense systems, for the Indian military – much to the dismay of U.S. policymakers.

The Indian government has been seeking a waiver under the so-called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which was passed in August 2017 to punish the Russian government for reportedly influencing and manipulating the 2016 presidential election process in the United States. CAATSA came into effect in January 2018.

The U.S. law mandates the imposition of binding sanctions on countries importing Russian military hardware. The recently passed U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) permits the Trump administration to waive sanctions under CAATSA in cases that include the maintenance of previously purchased Russian legacy systems and military hardware with a contract value under $15 million. 

With Russia being one of India’s largest defense supplier since the 1960s – it has accounted for 68 percent of Indian arms imports from 2012 to 2016, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – New Delhi has been actively pushing for a waiver despite the fact that the S-400 is neither a legacy system nor meets the cost criteria. (The total contract value is estimated at $5.5 billion, far above the $15 million ceiling.)

“There’s been no decision made,” Pompeo told reporters following the conclusion of the dialogue in September. “We do understand the history of India’s relationship with Russia and legacy systems... And so we’ll work our way through the waiver decision as the days and weeks proceed, and we’ll do that alongside our partner India.” A joint statement issued by the two parties at the end of the dialogue did not contain any reference to the defense deal.

India has been seeking the S-400 to bolster its long-range air defense capabilities for a number of years. In 2016, following intense bilateral negotiations, India concluded an initial intergovernmental agreement for the purchase of the S-400s. The final contract will likely be signed during a summit meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in October 2018, with or without the granting of a U.S. sanctions waiver, as has been made clear by Indian defense officials over the last weeks.

Consequently, with the induction of the S-400 into service with the Indian military relatively certain, a look at the air defense system’s purported capabilities is warranted. Prior to getting into the details, the following should be noted. First, the S-400 has never been deployed in combat operations, making an objective assessment of the effectiveness of the weapon system in air defense difficult. This has been amplified by various Russian marketing/disinformation campaigns over the years, most probably deliberately exaggerating the advanced capabilities of the S-400.

For starters, while the exact number of systems to be delivered to India is unknown, an S-400 in the Russian Armed Forces is usually divided up into two battalions, also referred to as divisions in the Russian military, which in turn are divided into two batteries. An S-400 battery is composed of up to 12 transporter erector launchers (TELs) with somewhere between four to eight TELs as the norm. Each battery also includes a fire control radar system, an additional target acquisition and engagement radar system, and a command post.

The S-400 can purportedly fire missiles at a rate 2.5 times faster than its predecessor and is capable of engaging up to 36 targets simultaneously, including stand-off jammer aircraft, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, and both ballistic and cruise missiles, all in an electronic countermeasures environment. 

The S-400 is road-mobile and reportedly can deploy within five to 10 minutes upon receiving the order. What makes the S-400 different from advanced Western-designed air defense systems such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system or MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) system is that, like its predecessor the S-300 (in service with the Indian military), it can fire a variety of different missiles.

The S-400 can fire the 48N6E, a vertical tube launched, solid fuel, single stage SAM with an estimated range of 150 kilometers (93 miles); the improved 48N6E2 with a reported range of 195 kilometers (121 miles); an improved variant of the 48N6E2 with an alleged range of 250 kilometers (160 miles); as well as the 9M96E and 9M96E2 with respective ranges of 40 km (25 miles) and 120 km (75 miles). India may also receive the S-400’s latest and most advanced SAM, the 40N6E.

It is principally the 40N6E that has cemented the S-400’s reputation as a formidable  next-generation anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) platform. The 40N6E, according to its manufacturer, Almaz-Antey Group, has a maximum operational range of up to 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) and can hit targets up to an altitude of 30 kilometers. The Russian domestic variant of the 40N6E, designated 40N6, allegedly boasts an exo-atmospheric interception capability with the missile reaching altitudes of up to 185 kilometers (607,000 feet).

This is likely a much-exaggerated claim. There have been no known tests of the missile at such altitudes. The 40N6E SAM has yet to be declared operational and public images of the missile system have not been made available. It is also unclear if India will procure the export variant of the long-range SAM and how quickly Russia will be able to produce the missile for export, as the Russian military itself is in the process of rapidly building up its S-400 force.

What is clear is that no matter what missiles the S-400 will come with, it will prove a significant boost to Indian air defense capabilities and could impact the strategic balance in South Asia. With India building up its air defense capabilities, including the deployment of an upgraded version of the Kongsberg Defense & Aerospace/Raytheon National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), next to various domestically developed ballistic missile defense platforms, the road-mobile S-400 regiments will be an integral part of any Indian defense plans.