Will Duterte Finish His Term in the Philippines?

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s six-year single term is scheduled to end in 2022, but there has been speculation about his capability to finish his mandate.

In the past 30 years, two of five Philippine presidents have been removed from office through “People Power” uprisings. That means there’s always a possibility that the incumbent president could suffer the same fate. In the case of Duterte, many of his critics believe this is a realistic possibility and that either resignation or forced removal could end Duterte’s term early. Some have also suggested the president’s health is poor and could cut his presidency short.

Duterte’s impeachment is unlikely at the moment. However, if the ruling party is rejected by a majority of voters in next year’s senatorial and local elections, it could be interpreted as a loss of public trust in the Duterte presidency. This, in turn, could embolden opposition forces to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president.

An impeachment case against Duterte could include various issues from corruption (alleged ill-gotten wealth of the first family) to treason (inaction on China’s aggression in the South China Sea). It could also focus on his role in his drug war’s extrajudicial killings, which have claimed the lives of an estimated 20,000 suspected drug users and sellers. Duterte himself admitted that his only “sin” is the spate of extrajudicial killings under his term.

Such an impeachment could also generate greater attention and public support if the cases filed against Duterte at the International Criminal Court are processed in tandem. If so, the two public trials would be a venue to expose, dissect, and explain the numerous “crimes against humanity” and other crimes allegedly committed by Duterte against the Filipino people.

Even if these proceedings fall short in issuing a guilty verdict against Duterte, they could nevertheless fuel public protests and lead to unity in the usually warring ranks of the opposition. This could bring about the rise of a “People Power” movement capable of once again unseating an elected president. Duterte himself anticipated this scenario when he accused leftist and rightist forces of conspiring against his government.

The president and his subordinates refuse to acknowledge that the anti-Duterte movement has gained momentum in the past several months. In the eyes of Duterte, all opposition activities are part of a left-instigated destabilization plot. However, from the point of view of many civil society groups, the protests reflect growing public dissatisfaction over runaway inflation, higher taxes, stagnating wages, unemployment, extrajudicial killings, and continuing human rights abuses in rural and urban poor communities.

That said, this is by no means a one-sided affair, and Duterte has several tools in his arsenal. Duterte can counter this emerging resistance by militarizing the bureaucracy, extending martial law beyond southern Mindanao, detaining critics, undermining the judiciary, and fanning anti-communist hysteria.

But such repressive tactics could also backfire and fuel more antagonism against the Duterte government. If Duterte resorts to strongman rule, it could have to the intended effect of silencing the opposition, but, learning from the Philippine experience to date, it could also give birth to a broad and energetic democratic movement.

Discussion of a premature end to the Duterte presidency, however, was truly kicked into gear recently following reports that the president was in poor health. Duterte is in part to blame for spreading confusion about his well being because of his office’s refusal to release a medical bulletin about his state of health. Deepening the confusion and mistrust of official statements, officials denied that the president was seriously ill only to be contradicted by Duterte himself, who admitted he was hospitalized on several occasions.

Then in early October Duterte said he underwent an endoscopy and colonoscopy a few weeks prior and would be repeating the tests. “I don’t know where I’m now physically but I have to wait for that. But I would tell you if it’s cancer, it’s cancer,” he said, before adding, “if it’s third stage, no more treatment. I will not prolong the agony in this office or anywhere.”

Unsurprisingly, Duterte’s own comments kicked off wild speculation that he has cancer. Duterte’s spokesman has dismissed all speculations about the president’s health, yet rumors continue to persist about his deteriorating condition. As the administration says it will not release a report on Duterte’s medical status, speculation persists.

Duterte’s ardent supporters expect him to finish his term in 2022, while his political enemies are anticipating an early resignation or removal from power. Meanwhile, a growing number of ordinary citizens are less wedded to particular camps, but are nonetheless expressing concern about the president’s health and the lack of transparency about it.

Some have even started asking this question every time they see the president on TV: Is Duterte dying?