What’s Next for Malaysia-Russia Relations?

On November 13, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Singapore.

While Russia and Malaysia have long had an official diplomatic relationship, the relationship only gained momentum in the late 1990s and early 2000s. During that time, Malaysia and Russia found common cause not just in boosting bilateral ties, but in promoting a more multipolar world order in the face of U.S. unipolarity, which, under the George W. Bush administration, had led to policies in the Middle East that Muslim-majority Malaysia deeply disagreed with.

Part of the foundation for that convergence was the relationship between Mahathir and Putin. Mahathir served his first stint as prime minister from 1981 to 2003; Putin took office formally as president in 2000. A key inflection point in the relationship came in 2003, when Putin became the first Russian head of state to visit Malaysia. He did so twice that year, once on an official visit in August and then to attend the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Summit in October. During his official visit, Putin famously conferred on Mahathir the Order of Friendship and both sides agreed to various areas of collaboration, including Malaysia’s purchase of Russian fighter jets.

The relationship between Russia and Malaysia continued to develop under subsequent Malaysian prime ministers, Abdullah Badawi and Najib Razak. But Malaysia-Russia ties never did reclaim the same momentum seen under Mahathir and Putin. Instead, the relationship endured some strain, with a case in point being the downing of Malaysian flight MH17 in Ukraine in 2014. The plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile, which an international investigation concluded had been launched from pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory, from Russian-deployed equipment.

The return of Mahathir to power after he led the opposition to a surprise victory in Malaysia’s May elections has presented Russia with an opportunity to boost ties with Malaysia. The relationship with Malaysia should be thought of within the context of Moscow’s broader aims to improve its relationships with key Asian states, in general, and Southeast Asian countries, in particular.

Given this history, Putin’s summit meeting with Mahathir on November 13 offered a sense as to where the relationship may be headed. Predictably, Putin set the tone in his preliminary public remarks in the presence of reporters before the leaders’ private meeting by recalling his award to Mahathir in Malaysia in 2003. He also candidly noted that the relationship had been underperforming in recent years. “[M]uch can still be done, and much, I think, could have been done in previous years,” Putin said.

What exactly each side can and will do to further improve ties, however, remains unclear. For instance, on the economic side, while Putin noted that trade had recorded a 60 percent increase in the first eight months of the year, both sides recognize that the overall economic relationship performs far below its potential. Mahathir hinted at this, noting that “our trade is good, but we can do better.” Few specifics were provided about how exactly this would be accomplished.

On the defense side, both sides touched on existing matters as well as future potential cooperation. The elephant in the room was the fact that Malaysia has been facing challenges maintaining and repairing its Russian aircraft, with Defense Minister Mohamad Sabu making headlines in July when he publicly disclosed that only four of the 28 aircraft owned by Malaysia could actually take to the skies.

True to form, Mahathir raised the issue directly and right off the bat with Putin in preliminary remarks with media present, noting that “we need to learn more about how to repair and maintain the aircraft.” But again, both sides did not issue any specifics about how they planned to resolve this issue. Mohamad had said that the defense ministry had terminated the contractor used under the Najib government and was looking to replace the arrangement in some form.

Apart from the agenda items each side floated publicly, the development of Malaysia-Russia relations will also rest on the ability of both sides to manage irritants and uncertainties. With respect to irritants, the MH17 issue continues to enter into any discussion about bilateral ties in a Malaysian context, and it raises questions about Russia’s behavior and how it can affect Malaysia’s interests. Ahead of the Mahathir-Putin meeting, the Malaysian media swirled with speculation about whether the issue would be discussed.

On uncertainties, while Mahathir and Putin may have rediscovered their affinity for one another, the context they are operating in has changed markedly since the early 2000s. That includes Mahathir’s own position, since, according to current plans, he is set to only serve as prime minister for a year or two before stepping down and paving the way for a successor. It also includes a wider regional and global context in which the United States, under Donald Trump, is actively looking to restrict ties between Russia and Asian states, especially on defense matters.

Of course, that does not mean both sides can’t make quick headway in terms of the bilateral relationship now or successfully manage the challenges while capitalizing on opportunities. But for all the rhetoric and optics, we ought to focus on the tangible issues in front of both countries if we are to assess the true prospects for future collaboration.