Letter From the Editors

Welcome to the January 2019 issue of The Diplomat Magazine.

Every year, in late December, media outlets churn out a spate of articles recapping and reviewing events of the past year. In January, the focus turns to looking forward, with experts trying their hand at prognostication. But reviews and previews aren’t as different as one might imagine – given the intrinsically unknowable nature of the future, predictions are inevitably based on what has come before.

This month’s issue combines the two trends, as we ask authors to look both toward what lies ahead and back at history. From U.S.-China relations to North Korean diplomacy to the mindbendingly complex politics of the Maldives, a solid understanding of how we got to now helps us imagine what the future might look like.

As is tradition here at The Diplomat, we start off the new year by providing a guide of what to expect in the Asia-Pacific over the next 12 months This year, we asked each of our authors to list three trends, upcoming events, or people to keep an eye on in 2019. These aren’t predictions, per se, but rather a guide for what readers should pay attention to in the coming year. Some of the answers aren’t surprising (the U.S.-China trade war makes more than one appearance) but others aren’t making headlines – not yet, at least.

January 1, 2019 marks more than the start of another year – it’s also the 40th anniversary of the official establishment of U.S.-China relations. Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, looks back at the past 40 years of the relationship to help explain what is so different about recent developments. She concludes that the U.S.-China relationship is entering a “new normal,” marked by more open acknowledgement of the tensions that have always existed. The question now is whether leaders on both sides can find a way to manage this new phase without conflict.

Then our very own Ankit Panda, senior editor at The Diplomat and also an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, summarizes a remarkable year of diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula. Tensions are assuredly down, but caution is warranted, he writes: Pyongyang and Washington have different visions for what “denuclearization” really means and for both the current state of affairs is nowhere close to the goal. Meanwhile, South Korea works to keep the wheels of diplomacy turning – even if it’s in the slow lane.

Strategically located and wedged, politically, between India and China, the Maldives’ domestic political dynamics rarely get the attention they deserve. In our final lead, JJ Robinson lays out the nitty gritty details of the Maldives’ recent surprising political reversal: the victory of an opposition candidate over the entrenched autocratic president. Robinson, a former editor of Minivan News (now the Maldives Independent) and the author of Maldives: Islamic Republic, Tropical Autocracy cautions, however, that given the Maldives’ history and the wider cast of characters, the drama may swing wildly again before too long.

We hope you enjoy these stories and the many more in the following pages.