In Afghanistan, a Rushed Peace Will Be a Short Peace

The year 2018 has witnessed rapid changes in peace efforts in Afghanistan. In early February, President Ashraf Ghani put forward an unconditional peace offer to the Taliban. Over the summer, the Afghan government and Taliban honored their first truce in 17 years of war, albeit only for three days. The U.S. government introduced a special envoy for peace in Afghanistan, tasked with ending the longest war the United States has ever been involved in. Russia organized a conference on Afghan peace in Moscow, where the Afghan High Peace Council members and Taliban representatives met. Finally, in late November in Geneva, Switzerland in a two-day conference on Afghanistan development, Ghani announced a 12-member team that will hold peace talks with the Taliban.

Given the dizzying pace of development, there must be an assumption that there is public demand for peace. Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special envoy for peace in Afghanistan, said Afghans deserve peace after having been at war for 40 years. However, a survey of Afghan public opinion in 2018 reveals a complex picture of public views regarding peace efforts. The results would suggest it’s better not to rush peace efforts.

The findings from latest Survey of the Afghan People by the Asia Foundation indicates that some 41.9 percent of Afghans think peace with the Taliban is impossible. Looking at the survey data, it shows that the nation’s view is divided on peace efforts. By ethnicity, the differences are significant: some 63.7 percent of Pashtuns reported that peace is possible compared to just 50.8 percent of Tajiks, 42.5 percent of Hazaras, and only 38.8 percent of Uzbeks (the Taliban is heavily dominated by Pashtuns). The views of men and women also differ, as men (60.5 percent) are significantly more likely to believe that peace with the Taliban is possible compared to women (46.5 percent). Significant differences emerge by regions as well, ranging from 73.6 percent of respondents in the east who opine that peace is possible to only 32.9 percent of respondents in the central/Hazarajat region.