Abe’s Challenges for 2019

On January 4, 2019, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held his first press conference for the new year. During the press conference, as well as in the New Year’s statement he released in writing on January 1, Abe talked about his determination to make 2019 a year of solid progress on the sou-kessan (“summing up” or “wrapping up”) of Japan’s postwar diplomacy. Abe listed continuous promotion of free trade under the now enacted Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-11), a peace treaty with Russia, and Japan-North Korea relations as examples of such issues.

Indeed, a number of diplomatic challenges are already unfolding for Abe. Japan’s relations with South Korea got off to a rocky start this year as a stalemate continues over exactly what transpired when a Republic of Korea Navy destroyer locked on to a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) P-1 surveillance aircraft with its fire control radar on December 20, 2018. As of this writing, there seems to be no prospect for resolution; Japan has suspended talks, citing dissatisfaction with Seoul’s explanations. At the same time, South Korea’s Supreme Court continues to uphold its judgment ordering Japanese companies to financially compensate individuals who claimed that they were forced laborers during World War II. The bilateral relationship between Tokyo and Seoul has descended to a historical low, with no signs for improvement in sight.

Meanwhile, with the United States and North Korea agreeing to hold another bilateral summit between their two leaders, Japan remains largely on the sideline of diplomatic activities aimed toward resolving North Korea’s nuclear issue. Although Tokyo welcomes the second summit, and will seek to maintain close consultations with Washington as the details for the U.S.-North Korea summit are finalized, Japan continues to struggle to find an opening to play a role in the actual denuclearization of North Korea while continuing its effort to address the abductee issue with Pyongyang.

Even on Japan-Russia relations — a more positive note in Abe’s speech, as he demonstrated enthusiasm about concluding negotiations toward a peace treaty with Russia by the end of 2019 — momentum seems to have been lost. The most recent statement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Japan should “accept the results of World War II” is yet another reminder that Moscow continues to show little interest in putting the sovereignty of the four islands claimed by Japan as the Northern Territories on the negotiation table. Despite Abe’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 22, it remains uncertain whether he can make a real headway toward concluding a peace treaty with Russia without giving substantial concessions on the Northern Territories issue.

The challenge for Abe is that he will have to face these difficulties with significantly reduced political capital. Six years after his return to the premiership, criticism against him has been quietly mounting. On the foreign policy front, for instance, his handling of Japan’s relationship with the United States, while still viewed favorably, is coming under closer scrutiny. This has been particularly the case since last year. Despite Abe’s effort to build a personal relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump since his election in 2016, Abe was not able to reverse the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs against Japan’s aluminum and steel exports. Trump also seemed to give little heed to Japan’s security concerns vis-à-vis North Korea at his first summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore in June 2018.

Internally, as well, the financial scandal that dogged Abe and his wife throughout 2017 and 2018 continues to fester. Moreover, the public has been growing wary over Abe’s domestic policy initiatives. While announced with much fanfare, these initiatives — from promoting gender equality to reforming the pension system to supporting working families — have yet to deliver tangible results that benefit Japanese in their day-to-day lives.

The most recent public opinion poll, which was released by NHK, Japan’s national public broadcaster, on January 16, shows Abe’s cabinet approval rating at 43 percent. While that’s somewhat recovered from the low his cabinet experienced between spring and early summer of 2018, support remains lukewarm. Moreover, even those who support the cabinet do so largely because of the lack of alternatives, suggesting the public mood could turn against Abe very quickly.

With an upcoming election for the Upper House this summer, this is hardly a politically favorable condition for Abe and his ruling coalition. Only one month into the new year, 2019 is already turning into a challenging year for Abe.