Why Philippine Politics Could Heat Up in 2019

Observers are paying keen attention to see if Philippine politics heats up in 2019, particularly with the upcoming midterm elections that will serve as a litmus test for President Rodrigo Duterte’s popularity. But even before the May elections, there are five additional reasons why Philippine politics could intensify in 2019.

First and foremost is the ever-controversial proposal to change the 1987 Philippine Constitution. The House of Representatives, led by former president and current Speaker Gloria Arroyo, already succeeded in approving the proposed legislation last December. The Senate will soon finish deliberating the measure.

Several concerns have been raised about the proposed constitutional reform – referred to as “charter change” – such as expanding the powers of the president, removing the term limits of elected officials, allowing foreign ownership of lands and corporations, and clipping the mandate of the vice president. Incidentally, the country’s vice president is currently a member of the opposition.

If passed, charter change could potentially lead to the postponement and even cancellation of the 2019 midterm election. A transitory provision could allow incumbent officials to remain in office and participate in implementing the new constitution. The transition phase is expected to make a huge impact on both national and local politics, especially if the new constitution is designed to transform the Philippines into a federal state.

If Congress fails to amend the constitution before the start of the election period, the issue is expected to resurface at the end of the year since the shift to federalism is among Duterte’s top priorities.

Charter change will always remain divisive as long as advocates are not transparent about their motives. Critics insist that charter change is being pursued to benefit politicians allied with Duterte’s party. Human rights groups have warned that changing the constitution could worsen abuses and legitimize the strongman tendencies of Duterte by giving vast powers to the executive during the period of transition.

Second, another issue that could spark unease among the electorate is the second year of implementation of Duterte’s tax reform package. High inflation in 2018 was attributed by some to the tax increases in several consumer goods. While the government insists that some vital economic statistics partly improved before the end of 2018, there are troubling indicators that oil prices are set to soar higher, affecting the cost of living.

Higher taxes for select goods are also scheduled for implementation this year. These daily economic woes experienced by ordinary Filipinos, especially minimum wage earners, are expected to top the list of concerns that voters might raise during the election campaign period.

Third, another potential trigger in exacerbating political tensions relates to the vice presidency. Unlike other countries, in the Philippines, the vice president is elected separately from the president, and there have been cases in the past where the president and vice president hold polar opposite views on some subjects. This is the case as well with Duterte and Vice President Leni Robredo, and tensions have been at play quite publicly since he started his term.

A key facet to watch is the looming court resolution of a pending electoral protest filed by former Senator Bongbong Marcos against Robredo. A destabilizing political crisis could erupt if Marcos, an ally of Duterte, succeeds in replacing Robredo. Robredo could rally the support of People Power forces, which led to the ouster of the Marcoses in 1986. A standoff between Marcos and Robredo supporters could deteriorate into a bigger battle between forces allied with Duterte on one hand, and networks opposed to the restoration of Marcos rule and creeping authoritarianism on the other.

This might appear like a far-fetched scenario, but then again, it was also arguably impossible to imagine exactly a year ago that Duterte and his allies could succeed in working for the removal of the Supreme Court chief justice.

The fourth issue at hand is the peace process in the Philippines. 2019 is a delicate year in achieving Duterte’s aim to resolve numerous armed conflicts across the country, including those with the communists and Muslim separatist rebels. The peace process with Muslim separatist groups is advancing somewhat, and the Duterte administration deserves credit for that. But it is still unclear how the Bangsamoro political entity will work once the shift to federalism is pursued.

Meanwhile, the peace process with communist rebels is still stalled but Duterte continues to give hints that he is open to negotiations. Since the “all-out war” policy is still in effect, the southern Mindanao region continues to be under Martial Law, some parts of the Visayas are heavily militarized, and activists decry the imposition of a de facto martial law in Metro Manila.

Like the charter change issue and the tax burden inflicted on the people, the viability of the various peace processes is also expected to be one of the midterm election issues that will be raised during the campaign period.

Fifth and finally, given the antics we have already seen from Duterte, the president himself is no doubt one ingredient that plays into the mix of how Philippine politics may heat up into 2019 as well.

It is worth emphasizing here that Duterte is not up for a vote in the May election; only the terms of office of local officials and half of the Senate are expiring this June. Nonetheless, it is inevitable that the midterm poll will be seen by many as a survey of public confidence for the Duterte government.

Furthermore, indications are that Duterte will continue to insert himself into the election by using his brand and his specific achievements to support allies and undermine adversaries. He and his party have been aggressive in promoting his achievements in the past two years, and that has only intensified the focus of opposition groups on Duterte himself as a personality, highlighting the bloody war on drugs, the kowtowing to China’s interests in the South China Sea dispute, and continuing rampant corruption in the bureaucracy.

The focus on Duterte as a personality matters not just in the lead up to the midterms, but in what follows as well. If Duterte’s party remains dominant after the midterm elections, it can embolden the president and his supporters to push for federalism and the continuation of the notorious campaign against drug users. That would heat up Philippine politics for the rest of 2019 and into 2020 as well.

And if Duterte’s party suffers an electoral setback, it can give motivation for opposition groups to consider filing an impeachment case against the president, and, failing that, campaign for clear accountability over the alleged human rights abuses of the Duterte government. This could coincide with the ongoing process at the International Criminal Court where Duterte is facing several cases linked to drug-related killings.

All in all, apart from the midterm elections in the Philippines, which have been the focus of many observers, there is no shortage of individual issue areas that could result in more tumultuous politics in the country this year. It is worth paying close attention to how these pressure points evolve through the year, as they may offer insights into the future of not just the politics of the country, but its overall trajectory in the coming years as well.