Can Abe Bring the US Along on Global Data Governance?

In his January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe surprised the world by announcing two areas he hopes to bring to the world’s attention in the upcoming G-20 meeting in Osaka.

One of the initiatives announced was to start “a new track for looking at data governance – call it the Osaka Track – under the roof of WTO.” In his speech, Abe spoke at length about the need for governments to join forces in the effort to harness the positives that emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) will bring about. The fourth industrial revolution and “Society 5.0” will benefit individuals and serve as a “gap buster,” according to Abe.

Another area he identified was the need to accelerate efforts to introduce disruptive technologies in order to buttress global initiatives addressing climate change. He emphasized that the international community “needs” more disruptive innovations to tackle climate change, pointing out that the disruptive innovations in green technology can also bring economic growth. Abe spoke about these initiatives in the context of Japan’s unwavering commitment to the “free, open, and rules-based international order.”

Both of his announcements come at a critical time, when the resilience of the international order – the one Abe reaffirmed his country’s commitment to in Davos – is increasingly called into question. In particular, his proposition to launch an “Osaka Track” on data governance is interesting given that the Trump administration in the United States has declared China and Russia – necessary partners in any such undertaking – as its strategic competitors.

To be sure, Abe’s idea of an “Osaka Track” on data governance is a much-needed initiative. As Abe pointed out in his Davos speech, global economies are growing more dependent on data, both in quantity and quality. While the influx of an unprecedented amount of data can provide sensible, cost-effective solutions to improve the quality of people’s lives in areas such as city planning and medicine, this data is also highly vulnerable to manipulation and malicious use by actors with nefarious intentions. An endeavor to set a “code of conduct” for data governance, agreed on by as many countries as possible, is certainly a worthy attempt. It is also important that Abe nested this idea under the auspice of the WTO. If his vision is fulfilled, the new data governance standards would be enforceable for all countries that are WTO members, including China and Russia.

That said, Abe’s proposal comes at a time of intensifying U.S. strategic coopetition with China and Russia. For instance, the U.S. Department of Defense’s first-ever AI strategy issued on February 12, 2019, following the principles set in the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) and the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), is another demonstration by the Trump administration that it is determined to stay ahead in the U.S. strategic competition vis-à-vis China.

These developments have also taken place in the broader context of the Trump administration moving away from multinational institutions, particularly in the area of trade, evidenced by the administration’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. And unlike other multinational trade arrangements that Abe has successfully brought to conclusion, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), any multinational framework that binds the countries to maintain governance of cutting-edge technologies such as big data will require active U.S. participation, even leadership. When the United States is pursuing bilateral trade negotiations with Japan and other partners, it is an open question as to how the Trump administration will respond to a near-global initiative, especially when the discussion will have to include China and Russia.

However, Abe is one of few world leaders who can engage with Trump, even disagree with him at times, without his personal relationship with the U.S. president being destroyed. Perhaps he can engage Trump in a conversation on how an arrangement such as “the Osaka Track” is fundamentally in the U.S. national interest, incentivizing Trump to encourage relevant U.S. government agencies to engage in such a multinational discussion.

So far, Abe’s record of leveraging his personal relationship with Trump to support his agenda has been mixed at best. Whether he can be successful in engaging Trump on this issue when Japan hosts the G-20 summit may serve as another critical test of the quality of Abe’s personal relationship with Trump.