[{"_1":2,"_295":-5,"_296":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_16":17,"_293":294},"root",{"_5":6,"_14":15},"fb",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":8},"apiKey","AIzaSyAdxqOaB63feHHqSm_nZCKsSHpSAcxkct8","authDomain","thediplomat.firebaseapp.com","projectId","firebase-thediplomat","appId","ga",true,"routes/$issue",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"slug","2019-07","path","/2019-07","issue",{"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43},"eid","-Li7vjiLcZOln1Btc9rh","title","On Track to a Kazakh Spring?","description","Welcome to the July 2019 issue of The Diplomat. This month, we explain the conflicting forces vying to shape Kazakhstan as it transitions toward the post-Nazarbayev era. We also scrutinize India’s emerging maritime ambitions, examine the impact U.S.-Iran tensions are having on Asia’s oil-importing economies, and outline the dark past and uncertain future of Britain’s last colony, home to a crucial U.S. military base at Diego Garcia. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.","masthead","

\n Publisher\n Diplomat Media, Inc.
\n 1701 Pennsylvania Avenue
\n Suite 200
\n Washington, DC 20006
\n United States of America\n

\n Publisher\n James Pach\n

\n Editor-in-Chief\n Shannon Tiezzi\n

\n Managing Editor\n Catherine Putz\n

\n Senior Editors\n Ankit Panda
\n Franz-Stefan Gady
\n Prashanth Parameswaran\n

\n Contributing Editors\nNick Aspinwall
\nErin Cook
\nRobert Farley
\nAnthony Fensom
\nKyle Ferrier
\nCharlotte Gao
\nJenna Gibson
\nBonnie Girard
\nUmida Hashimova
\nLuke Hunt
\nDaniel Hurst
\nUmair Jamal
\nPreeti Jha
\nTae-jun Kang
\nMercy A. Kuo
\nMong Palatino
\nHarsh V. Pant
\nAkhilesh Pillalamarri
\nPaolo Sorbello
\nTroy Stangarone
\nSteven Stashwick
\nThisanka Siripala
\nYuki Tatsumi
\nAman Thakker
\nColleen Wood
\nClint Work
\nGrant Wyeth\n

\n Technical & Design\n Stefan Yanku\n

","number",56,"date","July 2019","month",7,"year",2019,"status","rdy","toc",[44,60,67,84,93,118,143,168,192,217,238,255,276],{"_24":45,"_46":47,"_26":48,"_49":50},"LTR","priority",0,"Letter","pages",[51],{"_24":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":59},"-Li7vkSf8scugN5RQToB","lead","

The tricky matter of wielding power in a changing world.

","model","story","preview",1,"Letter From the Editors",{"_24":61,"_46":58,"_26":62,"_49":63},"CVRS","Cover Story",[64],{"_24":65,"_53":66,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":27},"-Li7vkSoO-xzUX8ygMXG","

A political transition has opened new space for expressing discontent, especially among young Kazakhs.

",{"_24":68,"_46":69,"_26":70,"_49":71},"LDS",2,"Leads",[72,76,80],{"_24":73,"_53":74,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":75},"-Li7vkSq3yNzp7qNx7B8","

The grand story of Indian defense policy has always been that of a mismatch between aspiration and capabilities. The Indian Navy is no exception.

","India’s Unrealized Maritime Dreams",{"_24":77,"_53":78,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":79},"-Li7vkSrFkgjOaB_WAyP","

As tensions between the United States and Iran deepen, Asia’s top oil importers watch warily.

","The US, Iran, and Oil-Hungry Asia",{"_24":81,"_53":82,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":83},"-Li7vkStLiZtiYbwCo6m","

How disputed islands, an Anglo-American military base, and an exiled people’s fate reflect a transforming world.

","Diego Garcia: Troubling Past, Uncertain Future",{"_24":85,"_46":86,"_26":87,"_49":88},"INT",3,"Interview",[89],{"_24":90,"_53":91,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":92},"-Li7vkSvHZOCEPJsbE-a","

Singapore, small states, and rising U.S.-China competition.

","Bilahari Kausikan",{"_24":94,"_46":95,"_26":96,"_49":97},"CHN",4,"China",[98,102,106,110,114],{"_24":99,"_53":100,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":101},"-Li7vkSxsK0aIG5k4uoa","

The detained blogger is just the latest example of the previously tolerated suddenly becoming forbidden.

","Yang Hengjun and China’s Ever-Moving Red Lines",{"_24":103,"_53":104,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":105},"-Li7vkSzxKQRSi6eDydW","

The symbolism was heavy for the Chinese president’s first Pyongyang trip, but there were no major announcements made.

","Xi’s North Korea Visit: All Style, No Substance?",{"_24":107,"_53":108,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":109},"-Li7vkT0vgm3hifkgb6_","

Hong Kong’s massive protests could be a bellwether for Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election.

","Hong Kong Protests: The View From Taiwan",{"_24":111,"_53":112,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":113},"-Li7vkT2UVG5M6UNdV83","

Why are symbols from the “Resist America, Aid Korea” campaign making a comeback nearly 70 years later?

","The Dangerous Reprise of Chinese Korean War Propaganda",{"_24":115,"_53":116,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":117},"-Li7vkT3wFQvMWDU-Z53","

The SCO reflects shifting power dynamics in this subregion, particularly between China and Russia.

","The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: A Vehicle for Cooperation or Competition?",{"_24":119,"_46":120,"_26":121,"_49":122},"NEA",5,"Northeast Asia",[123,127,131,135,139],{"_24":124,"_53":125,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":126},"-Li7vkT5XrMYX00b9or5","

Despite the Trump-Abe bonhomie, several lingering issues are poised to crop up over the next year.

","A Bumpy Road Ahead for US-Japan Relations",{"_24":128,"_53":129,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":130},"-Li7vkT6lRgdndS5vY7-","

Despite not being a belligerent, South Korea is among the countries facing the most potential impact from the trade war.

","US-China Trade War Turns Up the Heat for South Korea",{"_24":132,"_53":133,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":134},"-Li7vkT8xQjzVx_12djd","

Abe’s effort at playing the middle man between Washington and Tehran yielded no immediate results.

","What Did Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Accomplish in Iran?",{"_24":136,"_53":137,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":138},"-Li7vkT9ePeSHK3svPEK","

Hanoi turned out to be a fiasco, but what’s next for North Korea-U.S. negotiations?

","North Korea’s Negotiating Strategy After Hanoi",{"_24":140,"_53":141,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":142},"-Li7vkTBqAiPTf5VWtEw","

South Korea and China have made progress in addressing the deadly issue of fine dust, but North Korea’s engagement is necessary too.

","North Korea: The Missing Link in Northeast Asia's Air Pollution Fight",{"_24":144,"_46":145,"_26":146,"_49":147},"SOA",6,"South Asia",[148,152,156,160,164],{"_24":149,"_53":150,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":151},"-Li7vkTDJoAZzm-0BpV0","

As Modi begins his second term, he will need to grapple with a series of challenges.

","Rough Seas and Harsh Terrain: Security Challenges Under Modi 2.0",{"_24":153,"_53":154,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":155},"-Li7vkTEuKSHynzoBs5b","

Pessimism about Nepal’s politics is common, despite significant changes since the declaration of the republic in 2008.

","11 Years on, Has Nepal’s Republic Succeeded?",{"_24":157,"_53":158,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":159},"-Li7vkTFDag9mNP1V_ZB","

The government (and military) may have miscalculated in their attempt to take down a popular judge.

","Is Pakistan Headed for Political Crisis?",{"_24":161,"_53":162,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":163},"-Li7vkTHkOY1OZQQDWHu","

The implications for Bangladesh of the trade war are significant, if Dhaka can seize opportunities and avoid the pitfalls ahead.

","Is Bangladesh Winning in the US-China Trade War?",{"_24":165,"_53":166,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":167},"-Li7vkTIhK1xn2uT3uvM","

For reasons both structural and political, the Afghan Supreme Court has turned into a de facto ally of the president.

","How Afghanistan’s Judiciary Lost Its Independence",{"_24":169,"_46":37,"_26":170,"_49":171},"SEA","Southeast Asia",[172,176,180,184,188],{"_24":173,"_53":174,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":175},"-Li7vkTKz9henoRl-1nv","

Beyond economics, the geopolitical situation faced by both ASEAN and Hong Kong is characterized by significant uncertainty.

","New ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA Takes Effect Amid Uncertainty",{"_24":177,"_53":178,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":179},"-Li7vkTLDs06RtgZGmX0","

President Duterte’s allies won widely in the May midterm elections, but not the Estradas.

","The Fall of the Estradas in the Philippines",{"_24":181,"_53":182,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":183},"-Li7vkTNi4RcSq8uFYNa","

Longstanding anti-Chinese prejudices, coupled with foreign policy fears, are bringing down China’s image among Indonesians.

","Understanding Indonesians’ Souring Sentiment Toward China",{"_24":185,"_53":186,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":187},"-Li7vkTPNt1dGTZAYTRI","

While Thailand’s coup leader remains premier, the polls unleashed new democratic sentiments that the regime now struggles to silence.

","The Generational Challenge for Thailand’s Generals",{"_24":189,"_53":190,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":191},"-Li7vkTQCVZtk_aboV2J","

The U.S.-China trade war may make Hanoi rethink its interest in promoting technology for both economic growth and political control.

","Will Vietnam Follow China’s Model for Digital Dictatorship?",{"_24":193,"_46":194,"_26":195,"_49":196},"CEA",8,"Central Asia",[197,201,205,209,213],{"_24":198,"_53":199,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":200},"-Li7vkTRk9bnqT5X75JI","

Kind words, quiet diplomacy, and congratulations for Tajikistan and Kazakhstan from Europe’s top diplomat.

","Europe Stumbles Over Its Values in Central Asia",{"_24":202,"_53":203,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":204},"-Li7vkTS1gQ5GHRbOrDZ","

A draft law proposing gender quotas for Kyrgyzstan’s village councils could help increase women’s representation at the local level.

","Can Quotas Fix Gender Disparity in Kyrgyzstan’s Politics?",{"_24":206,"_53":207,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":208},"-Li7vkTVl-agvkK2veSg","

Sauytbay left Kazakhstan for Sweden, still seeking asylum after blowing the whistle on China’s Xinjiang camps.

","Xinjiang Camp Whistle-blower Sauytbay Seeks Asylum Elsewhere",{"_24":210,"_53":211,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":212},"-Li7vkTW5DTDLJjuvHYX","

The former Kyrgyz president accused his successor of persecuting his political opponents under the guise of anti-corruption.

","Atambayev Takes Aim at Jeenbekov",{"_24":214,"_53":215,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":216},"-Li7vkTYl8etwVd862dC","

As a new U.S. ambassador heads to Turkmenistan, the time is ripe to assess American interests in the Central Asian state.

","What Are US Interests in Turkmenistan?",{"_24":218,"_46":219,"_26":220,"_49":221},"OCE",9,"Oceania",[222,226,230,234],{"_24":223,"_53":224,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":225},"-Li7vkUUjGz7Devt7JL5","

James Marape has ascended to the prime ministership at a trying time for the continued integrity of PNG.

","Big Challenges Ahead for Papua New Guinea’s New Prime Minister",{"_24":227,"_53":228,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":229},"-Li7vkUWDZZY11WiRXsw","

Can Morrison and Australia’s Coalition make the most of an unexpected election victory?

","What Next for ‘Miracle Man’ Morrison?",{"_24":231,"_53":232,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":233},"-Li7vkUXHzuQcH5XI972","

In Asia, Australia has long been viewed as a neighbor, not necessarily a part of the neighborhood.

","Moving Into the Neighborhood: Australia’s Soft Power Push in Asia",{"_24":235,"_53":236,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":237},"-Li7vkUYQ3rFejupwFLS","

As both countries recalibrate their approaches to China, their bilateral relations have taken a back seat.

","Is China the Only Defining Factor in India-Australia Relations?",{"_24":239,"_46":240,"_26":241,"_49":242},"USA",10,"US in Asia",[243,247,251],{"_24":244,"_53":245,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":246},"-Li7vkU_LuEWG-OSuSfi","

The United States’ strategy for the so-called Indo-Pacific remains muddled.

","What’s New in the US Indo-Pacific Strategy?",{"_24":248,"_53":249,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":250},"-Li7vkUaGAD1y8ghA6C8","

There are two opposing factions on each of two sides, and that is making a deal difficult.

","The Internal Debates Driving the US-China Trade War",{"_24":252,"_53":253,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":254},"-Li7vkUbWKAwqtT0dO71","

Washington has adapted Tokyo’s approach to expanding cooperation via white hulls.

","What Is the US Coast Guard’s Role in the Indo-Pacific Strategy?",{"_24":256,"_46":257,"_26":258,"_49":259},"SCR",11,"Security",[260,264,268,272],{"_24":261,"_53":262,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":263},"-Li7vkUexovhr-GNCwq0","

The Republic of China Navy aims to begin deploying the first of eight diesel-electric submarines in 2026.

","Taiwan’s Indigenous Submarine Program: An Overview",{"_24":265,"_53":266,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":267},"-Li7vkUf_8gFScg9jQ0d","

Treaties to control chemical, biological and nuclear weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are at risk.

","Global WMD Risks Are Rising. It’s Time to Do Something About It",{"_24":269,"_53":270,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":271},"-Li7vkUgj02P9ejx1sxw","

Unlike other far-flung powers, France emphasizes its massive Indo-Pacific exclusive economic zone and constellation of territories.

","France as an Indo-Pacific Power: Making the Case",{"_24":273,"_53":274,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":275},"-Li7vkUisscE0BRBvP4V","

The Islamic State has completed its shift from Middle East to South Asia.

","Islamic State Comes for South Asia",{"_24":277,"_46":278,"_26":279,"_49":280},"ASL",12,"Asia Life",[281,285,289],{"_24":282,"_53":283,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":284},"-Li7vkUkkoPBrEroc0de","

India Misinformed shows how fake news stories are both a product of our minds and the reflection of its weaknesses.

","The Witch Hunts of Our Times: India and Fake News",{"_24":286,"_53":287,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":288},"-Li7vkUlmlZmMTp6r6Pj","

China’s food delivery industry is searching for ways to make the sector more environmentally conscious, one order at a time.

","Cutting Chopsticks From China's Food Delivery Waste",{"_24":290,"_53":291,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":292},"-Li7vkUmqFDT0KI86Rch","

A new EJF report finds widespread violations in the global seafood industry, including in Taiwan, Vietnam, and elsewhere in Asia.

","Labor Exploitation, Illegal Fishing Continue to Plague Asian Seas","routes/$issue.cover",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"actionData","errors"]