The Fall of the Estradas in the Philippines

The topline takeaway from the Philippine midterm elections in May was that the coalition endorsed by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte dominated the Senate race and the local elections. But there were also allies of the president who lost badly in the polls. Perhaps the most prominent political family that surprisingly failed to get an elected position this year is the Estradas of Manila and San Juan. Their electoral defeat was a notable development within the legacy of Philippine dynastic politics.

Most prominently, Manila Mayor and former President Joseph Estrada lost in his re-election bid despite wide name recognition and demonstrated staying power in Philippine politics. In addition, his two sons were unable to clinch their own Senate seats. Estrada’s granddaughter was defeated in San Juan, which marked the first time that the Estrada clan has lost control of the city since 1967.

The elder Estrada is an icon of Philippine politics who relied on his popularity as a movie actor to endear himself to ordinary voters. He was San Juan mayor for two decades before becoming a senator in 1987, vice president in 1992, and president in 1998. He was ousted from his post in 2001 through a so-called people power uprising after he was accused of involvement in an illegal numbers game (jueteng). He was later arrested, charged, and convicted for plunder but was pardoned by President Gloria Arroyo.

Estrada then made a remarkable comeback, which attested to his staying power in Philippine politics. He surprised many when he ran for president in 2010 and managed to land a respectable second in the elections. He changed his residence from San Juan to Manila and became mayor of the country’s capital city in 2013. Estrada was re-elected in 2016 while his family continued to rule San Juan. His wife and two sons were elected as senators in 2001, 2004, 2010, and 2013.

Estrada was aiming for his third and final term as mayor in the 2019 elections, but instead fell under the weight of a landslide defeat. His loss is seen by many as a reflection of a growing clamor for a new type of leadership. Estrada was defeated by his former vice mayor, who campaigned on a call for voters to choose younger candidates who can bring change in the city. Apparently, this appeal worked.

Indeed, Estrada’s loss was among the surprise outcomes in the May midterm polls, which saw the defeat of established political dynasties in Metro Manila. Even the country’s former vice president lost in the congressional race in Makati City.

At this juncture, the Estrada family needs to reflect on its legacy in power. Mayor Estrada promised to revive the glory of Manila in 2013 but he didn’t abandon his traditional concept of governance, which disappointed many of his constituents. His two sons ran for senate seats at the same time, which divided their base and prevented either from getting enough votes. They allowed an inexperienced member of their family to face an old rival in San Juan, which cost them their longtime political base.

Mayor Estrada’s place in the country’s modern political history is secure, but the electoral losses of his family have undermined their political future. The Estradas can probably survive this humiliating debacle, but it will take time and it’s uncertain whether they can recover the political clout they have seemingly lost. What is certain is that the Estradas have been neutered, and their ability to be a major force in the 2022 presidential elections cast in serious doubt.

The fall of the Estradas in Manila also meant the consolidation of power by other families from the ruling party, most notably the Dutertes. Estrada is an ally of the president, but there are speculations that Palace operators had a role in guaranteeing the defeat of the former president. After all, Estrada lost to a candidate who was twice appointed by Duterte in the past three years. If reports of election rigging were true, did the ruling party favor Estrada’s rival?

Whether or not Duterte’s camp engaged in a power play to slay the mass appeal of the Estradas, the consequence of the electoral loss of the latter is the boosting of the influence and dominance of the Dutertes in local and national politics. In just three years, the Davao-based Dutertes have quickly gained a foothold in the erstwhile fiefdoms of well-entrenched Manila dynasties.