Another Election Victory for Abe – Or Is It?

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe led his ruling coalition to another election victory. In the House of Councillors (Japan’s upper house) election on July 21, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition won 72 seats of the 124 seats up for grabs.

But was it really a victory? Of course, nobody disputes the numbers. Even though the ruling coalition came a few seats short of what it would have needed to gain a two-thirds majority in the upper house, it now more seats in the House of Councillors than it did before election. That said, there are several reasons to question whether this is really a “victory” for Abe.

First is the question of whether the ruling coalition won because it has the voters’ genuine support, or because of the lack of alternatives presented to them. This election demonstrated yet again that since the LDP-Komeito coalition won back the government in December 2012, the opposition parties have not been able to win back voters’ confidence, nor to present an alternative vision for the country. If anything, as the in-fighting among the opposition parties continues, they have only been criticizing the ruling coalition, making it less likely to regain the confidence of the voters. In other words, the July 21 “win” for the LDP-Komeito coalition was more about the voters choosing the current political stability over taking a chance on fractious opposition forces.

Second, the low turnout rate shows that there is a large silent majority that could come back to haunt the ruling coalition. Voter turnout for the July 21 election was well below 50 percent. In other words, more than half of Japan’s voters did not even bother to go to the polls. When half of the country does not vote, a “win” in the election is hardly a reflection of voter confidence in the current government. If anything, it’s a warning sign that disenfranchised voters could come out strong against the ruling coalition in the next House of Representatives (lower house) election if properly motivated.

Finally, Abe brought about the last six election victories by often putting off policy decisions that he knew would not be popular among voters. When he led the LDP-Komeito coalition back into government in December 2012, he was supposedly committed to a simultaneous reform of taxes and social security. Almost six and a half years later, neither has made much progress. While postponing the consumption tax increase may have benefited the ruling coalition so far, it is unlikely that he can again postpone the increase, which is scheduled to take effect in October.  With economic repercussions from the increase projected to be negative, the already lukewarm public support for Abe could further erode, effectively making him a lame duck.   

In fact, Abe’s decision to postpone the consumption tax increase earlier in his tenure could now limit his ability to pursue constitutional revision – an issue that he has long been personally invested in. In his media appearance after the election, Abe spoke of his hope to introduce a proposal for constitutional revision before his current term ends in 2021. However, six and a half years into his tenure, the parliamentary panel on constitutional reform has not even begun the discussion. Furthermore, the public is not really on board with Abe on the issue. Exit polls for the July 21 election revealed that issues such as pensions, employment, economic revitalization, and child care weigh heavily on voters’ minds. Constitutional revision is not an issue that they want Abe to prioritize. Should Abe force the constitutional debate, the ruling coalition could pay dearly at the lower house election, which will happen sometime before its current term ends in September 2021. 

Even if Abe tries to rebuild his political standing by dissolving the Diet and calling a snap election prior to September 2021, he may not have the chance to do so. Not only will the post-consumption tax increase economy make such an election difficult for the LDP-Komeito coalition, but Japan is also gearing up to host a number of big international events, including the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.

Abe and his coalition did come out of the upper house election strong. Given the issues that await Abe, however, whether and how long they can retain their current position of strength is uncertain.