Jammu and Kashmir After Article 370

On August 5, 2019, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced that the president of India would revoke the application of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The two articles, which gave the state significant autonomy and placed limitations on who can purchase and hold land, were repealed in order to “integrate the state with the rest of India.” To make this aim a reality, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will need to grapple with the realities of bringing economic development to the region, as well as the geopolitical implications of the decision.

The Prospects for Economic Development in Jammu and Kashmir

In his speech in the upper house of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, Shah argued that Article 370 had been an “obstacle” that needed to be removed in order to integrate Jammu and Kashmir with the rest of India and develop its economy. He promised further that “give us five years, we will make it the country's most developed state.” However, bringing economic development to Jammu and Kashmir after the Modi government’s decision will remain an uphill challenge.

The home minister’s argument that Article 370 impeded economic growth requires deeper examination. A fact-checking organization in India found that the per capita GDP of Jammu and Kashmir as of 2017, totaling $870, was nearly two-and-a-half times higher than the worst performing state, Bihar, which was at $363. Moreover, the state’s poverty rate of 10.3 percent was nearly half of the average of all of India. However, Jammu and Kashmir has fared poorly in attracting private investment.

While on the surface it seems obvious that the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir would lead to lower private investment, there is data that demonstrates this is not always the case. Shahid Iqbal Choudhary, the district magistrate and development commissioner of Srinagar, wrote in an op-ed that “It is utterly wrong and unjust to blame Article 370 for every minor or major shortfall faced by Jammu and Kashmir state in the path of development.” He goes on to point out that “prominent names of industry have their presence in Jammu which include Chenab textiles, Dabur India, Godrej, Coca-Cola, Berger Paints, Euro Bond, UK Paints” and more, which have made a total investment of nearly $700 million in the state.

While an investor’s summit is being planned in Srinagar to attract investment following the decision to revoke the state’s autonomy, the government will need to also address deeper, structural issues to bring investment to the state. Choudhary argues that “locational disadvantage both in terms of raw material and geographical constraints” remains a bigger factor in preventing investment than Articles 370 and 35A. Without solutions, these constraints will prevent the goal of greater economic growth and private investment from being realized.

The National Security Implications

Another consideration that the Indian government will need to take into account is the geopolitical impact of the decision. Early signals demonstrate that the implications will reverberate not only within the newly created union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, but also in India’s relationship with Pakistan. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has used the existence of threats to rationalize their decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomous status, the decision is likely further exacerbate the factors behind the threats. The result will be a heightened sense of risk in this “new reality” they hoped to create in Kashmir.

One of the most significant criticisms levied against the BJP government by parties in the opposition has been the communications lockdown in Jammu and Kashmir in the lead-up to and following the decision, as well as the detention of local political leaders. The impact of this decision, whether right or wrong, will likely be used by separatist groups operating in the Kashmir Valley. Indeed, as Irfan Nooruddin, South Asia director at the Atlantic Council, said in an interview with Foreign Policy, it is more than likely that separatist organizations will adopt the following talking point: “We’ve been telling you for all this time that the Indian government doesn’t see you as one of them and doesn’t respect Kashmiri identity.” Maintaining security in this new environment will be a significant challenge for India.

Another major security concern will be the reaction from Pakistan, which has already announced a series of retaliatory measures against India in response to the decision to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A. Moreover, while India has maintained that it has “diplomatically isolated” Pakistan over the last five years, a report from the Ministry of Defense shows that “Pakistan, with renewed vigour in 2018, orchestrated an international campaign on Kashmir through its sponsored proxies,” and has successfully internationalized the Kashmir issue. However, Pakistan’s response may not only be diplomatic in nature. Using open-source intelligence, defense analyst Abhijit Iyer-Mitra has found that Pakistan is preparing for “a major ground and naval build-up” that may be mobilized should Indian security forces overreact to protests or attacks in the Kashmir Valley. Therefore, the national security threat from Pakistan following the decision is shaping up to be quite significant.

Following the Modi-led government’s decision to revoke the applications of two autonomy-granting articles of India’s constitution in the former state of Jammu and Kashmir, the government will now need to work to realize two key promises made to rationalize the decision: Bringing greater private investment to the region, as well as providing for the security of the region. While the BJP has declared that it has “reintegrated” Jammu and Kashmir with the rest of India, its project to ensure security and prosperity in the new union territory is far from over. A new set of economic and security challenges are likely to emanate as a direct result of the government’s decision on Articles 370 and 35A. The coming weeks and months will demonstrate whether true “reintegration” will take place or not.