The Chaos of Kyrgyz Politics

Political confrontation between the former and incumbent presidents of the Kyrgyz Republic took a violent turn in August when Almazbek Atambayev and his supporters staged an open rebellion against security forces dispatched to capture the former president at his mansion outside the capital Bishkek on August 7.

The botched raid resulted in the death of one officer from the State Committee for National Security (GKNB) force and the embarrassing capture of several others by Atambayev’s supporters. Current President Sooronbay Jeenbekov cancelled his vacation the night of the initial failed arrest attempt and conducted an emergency meeting of the nation's Security Council. A second raid was initiated to capture Atambayev. The massive deployment of the police forces to the former president's compound the next day and subsequent clashes led to atambayev’s surrender. The former president was taken by the police to an Interior Ministry detention facility.

In the following days, the Prosecutor General's Office charged the former president with murder, hostage taking, the illegal accumulation of wealth, and orchestrating mass unrest. Atambayev has denied the charges, calling them politically motivated. Kyrgyz authorities have frozen at least 25 bank accounts associated with Atambayev and his family, as well as their assets in the Central Asian country. The former president's wife, Raisa Atambayeva, is the subject of a criminal investigation in an unrelated case pertaining to the allegedly criminal takeover of a business from Chinese entrepreneurs and interference in a court trial involving a former district judge in Bishkek city. Atambayeva has denied the allegations leveled against her. A number of the former president's allies and supporters have been detained and brought in for questioning in the aftermath of Atambayev's arrest.

As shocking as the August raids to detain Atambayev were, these developments are hardly a surprise. It’s worth recalling that while the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) dubbed Kyrgyzstan’s October 2017 presidential poll “competitive” and “free,” the election of Atambayev’s chosen successor -- Jeenbekov -- was not without controversy.

The OSCE report concluded:

The "election was competitive, as voters had a wide choice and candidates could, in general, campaign freely, although cases of misuse of public resources, pressure on voters, and vote-buying remain a concern. The technical aspects of the election were well-administered, but the adjudication of election disputes by the [Central Election Commission] was, at times, biased. While televised debates contributed to greater pluralism, self-censorship and limited editorial coverage of the campaign signalled deficiencies in media freedom. Voting was orderly and well organized in the large majority of polling stations observed, despite problems with ballot secrecy. Numerous and significant procedural problems were noted during the vote count and the initial stages of tabulation.”

Atambayev’s political opponents accused Kyrgyz authorities of rigging the election to Jeenbekov's advantage. Adakhan Madumarov, an outspoken southern politician and ex-speaker of the country's parliament, denounced the election results and launched a campaign using the slogan "I disagree" in protest of what he called a sham election. Madumarov came in third with 6.57 percent of the vote. Madumarov accused the Central Election Commission of deliberately restricting the voting rights of tens of thousands of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia. Omurbek Babanov, a top contender for a president who won nearly 34 percent of votes in the election, had to flee Kyrgyzstan after the authorities launched a criminal probe over his alleged incitement of ethnic hatred during a speech on the campaign trail. It was a thinly disguised effort to remove him from the political scene.

Atambayev, too, engaged in disruptive politicking during the election. Atambayev accused the Kazakh leadership of interference in the election over a meeting between candidate Babanov and then-Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev weeks before the election. In response to the former Kyrgyz president's scandalous accusations, Kazakhstan tightened its border with Kyrgyzstan, strangling commerce and trade. Though temporary, the trouble cost Kyrgyzstan’s already weak economy dearly.

Crisis History

The current political crisis in the Central Asian nation was set in motion well before even the 2017 election. A political time bomb was activated in December 2016 when Atambayev pushed through amendments, via a controversial referendum, to change the Kyrgyz Constitution. Opponents of the former president called the referendum a step toward a more authoritarian state in the only democratic country in the region. Omurbek Tekebayev, the leader of the Ata-Meken opposition party, expressed concerns at the time that "if these amendments are passed, the country will return to authoritarianism, it would be the authoritarian rule of the prime minister rather than of the president."

The amendments to the constitution were designed to shift power toward the prime minister and his cabinet. Some rights activists warned that the changes to the constitution were specifically set to prepare a transfer of power to Atambayev's loyalists and confidants, including incumbent President Jeenbekov. Kyrgyzstan’s constitution mandates a single, six-year term for president. The argument runs that Atambayev was orchestrating ways to continue to influence the country’s political direction outside of the White House, perhaps as prime minister eventually himself.

Ultimately, the former Kyrgyz president's plans failed disastrously. Ruthless political infighting between Atambayev and Jeenbekov in the aftermath of the presidential election shattered any such careful machinations. It is widely believed by the Kyrgyz public that discord between the two was a result of Atambayev's aggressive efforts to influence his successor's policies. Inadvertently, China found itself in an uncomfortable position too after one of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Kyrgyzstan – the Export-Import (Exim) Bank-funded $386 million modernization of the power-heating plant in Bishkek – failed suddenly in the depth of winter, depriving residents of the capital of heat. Subsequent investigations by the state and various parliament commissions into the causes of the critical malfunction at the power plant revealed massive corruption and bribery schemes allegedly involving the former president's allies, including two prime ministers and TBEA, a Chinese company that was managing the execution of the Beijing-financed project.

Regional Rivalry

The infighting among Kyrgyzstan’s politicians has also put a spotlight on China's miscalculations and Russia's continued upper hand in the Central Asian country. Atambayev has repeatedly looked to Russia for support and even took a private Russian jet, flying from the Russian base outside the Kyrgyz capital, to Moscow in late July. The former Kyrgyz president was received by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, after which the Russian leader said "Kyrgyzstan has already experienced several serious internal political upheavals, specifically, there were two upheavals at least. And this should stop, to my mind, for the sake of Kyrgyz people. The country is in need of political stability and everyone should unite around the sitting President and help him in developing the state." Atambayev nevertheless returned to Kyrgyzstan confident.

Weeks earlier Putin had hosted Jeenbekov in Moscow on a short working visit. These flights to Moscow by Kyrgyzstan’s top politicians put on display Russia’s continued hand in mitigating Kyrgyz domestic affairs.

China, on the other hand, has displayed a degree of weakness and inattention during the build up to the present Kyrgyz political crisis. Chinese President Xi Jinping met Atambayev in April 2018, months after the Kyrgyz presidential election. Some concluded that Beijing hadn’t quite been paying attention to the political developments in Kyrgyzstan. The readout of the Xi-Atambayev meeting from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Xi and his government hoped that Atambayev, “as Chairman of the ruling party of Kyrgyzstan, will continue playing a positive role for the development of China-Kyrgyzstan relations.” The statement highlighted Beijing's poor judgement and ignorance of domestic Kyrgyz political dynamics.

It was evident to many regional observers in the short months after the Kygyz presidential election that the former president and his chosen successor were on a collision course. Beijing was caught unaware. A year after successfully securing a second electoral victory for a Social Democratic Party (SDPK) candidate to the presidency, the party is in shambles. Split between the Atambayev and Jeenbekov factions, it remains to be seen whether a unified SDPK will be able to front candidates for the parliamentary election scheduled for 2020. Atambayev is no longer the party’s chairman and the party’s parliamentary faction, bizarrely, declared itself the opposition even though it holds the most seats.

Kyrgyzstan’s Central Asian neighbors have largely taken a neutral position toward the political disarray in the country. The Kazakh leadership took a quick friendly step toward the new president, engaging with the Kyrgyz government on de-escalating the pressing border crossing and trade issues. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made a phone call to his Kyrgyz counterpart immediately after violence broke out at the former president's compound in August to wish the neighboring nation peace and stability.

Central Asian experts were quick to take note of the transitional challenges inherent across the region put on display by the Atambayev-Jeenbekov feud. Despite the country's two-decade slow crawl toward democracy, an element of autocratic politics remains. Kazakh analyst Dosym Satpayev wrote in an opinion piece for Forbes Kazakhstan that by adjusting the Kyrgyz Constitution to the political situation in order to strengthen his own position, Atambayev "trapped [himself] in legal lawlessness, when in the eyes of the authorities and society the constitution and laws are nothing more than words on paper which can be rewritten" when needed. As a result, after losing power, Atambayev became "a victim of the system that he has created in which… human rights are notoriously ignored, the independent judiciary is absent, and the repressive power apparatus remains" in place.

The North-South Schism

Atambayev's six years in office didn’t make Kyrgyzstan economically prosperous nor any less corrupt. Average Kyrgyz households remain highly dependent on remittances, mainly from Russia where up to 1 million Kyrgyz migrants earn a living and send cash to their families.

Corruption is deeply entrenched in Kyrgyzstan, but the January 2018 failure of the Chinese-modernized Bishkek power plant brought the persistence of corruption under Atambayev’s presidency to harsh, direct light. The power plant’s failure triggered a massive corruption scandal which continues to play out. Scores of high ranking Kyrgyz officials have been arrested. For example, former Prime Minister Sapar Isakov is on trial for his alleged part in the dubious $386 million scheme to renovate the Bishkek power plant. He faces up to 20 years in jail. Nearly all of the arrested officials are Atambayev's allies and associates. The former president's last years in office were also marked by the persecution of political opponents, verbal attacks on journalists and media organizations, and attempts to tighten freedom of speech through the country's dysfunctional court system.

The country’s notorious North-South schism is still selectively used by the Kyrgyz political class in their battles. The dynamic has been evident during the ruthless infighting between the former and current presidents as well as within the ruling SDPK party after the presidential election. The regional divide has also been exacerbated by the powerful southern clans that supported Jeenbekov, himself a southerner, in his bid for the presidency.

Among those factions, the Matrayimov family stands out as the most politically active and firmly supportive of the incumbent president after his split with Atambayev. What's interesting about this particular group is the Matrayimov clan’s loyalty very noticeably shifted from Atambayev to Jeenbekov. The family is well known in the country for its questionable reputation which has subsequently become a matter of public record highlighted by the vociferous Kyrgyz media. Bombshell investigative reports revealed Matrayimov clan members' alleged link to bribery of high-ranking state officials under the former president, purported massive money-laundering operations of up to $200 million, undeclared assets and other forms of corruption. Rayimbek Matrayimov is one of the most notorious members of the clan; known as “Rayim Millionaire” for the absurd wealth he accumulated despite being a public servant, he served as deputy chief of the customs service until Atambayev unceremoniously dismissed him on his final day in office.

The Matrayimov clan has found itself in the middle of the political struggle between Atambayev and Jeenbekov. Atambayev has effectively attacked his successor, Jeenbekov, for providing discreet political support to the Matrayimov clan. Rayimbek successfully sued to get his job at the customs service back. Atambayev accused the Matrayimovs of indulging in massive corruption, despite the fact that most of the alleged wrongdoing happened during his time in office -- when he repeatedly promoted “Rayim Millionaire.”

Over the months, Atambayev’s political position deteriorated: He lost public support in the wake of the Bishkek power plant failure and confidence as his allies were arrested on corruption charges. Atambayev’s bombastic rhetorical style and “all in” strategy to win back public support failed. The former president's desperation was even more evident when he sought help from the Kremlin in late July. His effort to get the Russians to lean on Jeenbekov failed completely. Remarkably, Putin has avoided entanglement in the feud despite his warm personal relations with Atambayev. During his term, Atambayev remained a stalwart friend to Moscow; Jeenbekov has not necessarily changed that course.

What's Next

Despite this political chaos, the Kyrgyz Republic is critically the only nation in Central Asia with a politically active and vibrant civil society. Its media is free and vibrant, withstanding repeated political crises in the country. It must be noted that throughout the political turbulence following the 2017 presidential election, Kyrgyz civil society groups and many politicians have been engaged in promoting public discussions and seeking solutions to ease the regressing political situation in the country. Likewise, the Kyrgyz press and media extensively covered the corruption scandals, high-profile court trials, the internal split within the ruling SDPK party, parliamentary debates, and the personal feud between the former and current presidents. Civil society and the free press have emerged as a counterbalance to the political chaos emanating from the all-out public discord between the two Kyrgyz presidents. With this counterbalance, it is unlikely that the political disarray, as chaotic as it is, will worsen toward downright instability.

In recent weeks a number of political prisoners who were jailed under Atambayev, including Ata-Meken opposition party leader Omurbek Tekebayev, have been released. The releases have raised hopes for reform in the judicial system, but it is yet to be seen how the Jeenbekov administration will reform the corrupt courts and law enforcement bodies. In addition, there have been consistent public calls to eliminate governor posts in the provinces and halve the number of lawmakers in the parliament. The highly unpopular Kyrgyz parliament has been partially blamed for burgeoning corruption in the country. It was particularly harshly criticized by the public for the reckless ratification of controversial Chinese state-funded projects that have dramatically increased the nation's foreign debt to China up to more than 40 percent as of 2019.

Kyrgyzstan is expected to have a parliamentary election in 2020. With that election, the Kyrgyz public may have the opportunity to influence the country’s development with their candidate choices. But whether a fair election will take place or otherwise is unclear. Kyrgyzstan has a consistent record of conducting marred elections since gaining independence in 1991. Domestic observers are skeptical the country will have a truly fair election next year.

After Chaos

Kyrgyzstan's challenging political transitions – the end of the Soviet Union, then two popular uprisings, followed by this year’s Atambayev fiasco – has yet to bring about vital reforms for the impoverished Central Asian nation.

The current political crisis is one of many troublesome signs that the country failed to enact adequate reforms after two successive regimes were overthrown in 2005 and 2010. Kyrgyzstan’s two ousted former presidents, both accused of abuse of power, massive corruption and nepotism, are now residing abroad: Askar Akayev in Russia and Kurmanbek Bakiyev in Belarus. Almazbek Atambayev is, in some ways, simply the latest Kyrgyz president to follow the path of his predecessors. Although he chose to remain in Kyrgyzstan rather than flee, he faces similar charges (except nepotism).

The events in Kyrgyzstan emphasize, for the whole Central Asian region, the difficulties of even ostensibly democratic and peaceful political transitions. Atambayev’s transition plans did not pan out and now he’s paying for it. Other Central Asian states could face similar challenges in the future. It remains difficult to predict how peaceful transitions of power will proceed across the region. There isn’t much precedent to judge from.

In Uzbekistan, for example, political developments are on one hand reassuring: The country’s new president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, took office and immediately engaged in a sweeping reform program. On the other hand, it remains to be seen how successful these reforms will be in the long run. In addition, its important to note that the family of former President Islam Karimov do not find themselves in prominent positions. Gulnara Karimova had been pulled from the public spotlight by her father, embarrassed by massive corruption schemes coming to light in the international press. Under Mirziyoyev, however, Karimova has been tried and her assets seized by the state. Uzbekistan’s transition has been suggested by some regional experts as motivation for Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s surprising resignation earlier this year. In trying to deftly manage the political transition process, Nazarbayev was perhaps thinking of his own extremely wealthy children and what could happen to them if he had died in office, unleashing a democratic process without a steadying hand to guide the votes and protect the family’s gains.

Ultimately, politics in Kyrgyzstan have played out in a uniquely Kyrgyz fashion. A dynamic civil society, backed by a vibrant mediascape, informs an increasingly politically aware electorate. The country’s elections leave much to be desired, but the Kyrgyz know that. The Atambayev fiasco should be seen as a warning lesson to Kyrgyzstan’s other politicians: You reap what you sow.