A Quick Assessment of Abe’s New Cabinet

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe conducted another cabinet reshuffle on September 11. This is the third time he has reshuffled his cabinet since returning to office in December 2012. While media in and outside of Japan largely focused on Shinjiro Koizumi – a son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi who often leads public opinion polls for the most appropriate politician to succeed Abe as the prime minister – being appointed as the environment minister, there are a few other notable characteristics in the line-up this time around.

Keep your friends close: When Abe became the prime minister for the first time in 2006, his cabinet choices were criticized as Obomodachi Naikaku (a friends cabinet) – his appointments overly favoring friends and followers. Having become the longest-serving prime minister since 1945 and inching his way to the position of the longest-serving Japanese prime minister since the modernization in the late 19th century, Abe now seems to be less concerned about being criticized for appointing his friends and loyal supporters. A couple of notable examples include the appointment of Yasutoshi Nishimura, who has been serving as the deputy chief cabinet secretary, as the new minister for economy, trade and industry (METI) and Katsuyuki Kawai, a long-time Abe loyalist who most recently held the title of special advisor to prime minister, as the new minister of justice.

Keep your potential rival “king-maker” closer: Abe decided to keep Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and Vice Prime Minister/Finance Minister Taro Aso in their current respective positions. While Abe may justify these appointments as keeping the two main figures in the cabinet for the sake of continuing stability of his government, some can also argue that by keeping them in the cabinet, Abe effectively prevents them from corralling the anti-Abe forces within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to generate a credible alternative candidate for the LDP presidential election in 2021.

Appoint Shinjiro Koizumi to his first cabinet position – why? Abe surprised the public with the appointment of Shinjiro Koizumi as his new environment minister – a first cabinet position for Koizumi. One way to look at the appointment is to take it as a part of Abe’s effort to avoid a criticism of not nurturing future generations of leaders despite having ample time to do so in his long tenure. The other more cynical way to look at this appointment is that it is Abe’s effort to slow Koizumi’s ascent within the party by appointing him to a position beset with politically difficult issues. Either way, there is no doubt that this appointment will be a test for Koizumi. While he is undoubtedly one of the most popular politicians in today’s Japan and a gifted communicator, and is good at sparking discussion on various issues, he has yet to establish a track record of turning his new ideas into concrete policies or legislation. As environment minister, Koizumi’s most urgent task would be to address the issue of the release of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant, which had a meltdown at the time of the triple disaster in March 2011, and has been shut down since. The issue has already been given a high international profile due to complaints lodged by South Korea. Whether Koizumi can navigate through this issue and bring it to a settlement could determine his long-term political future.

Elevate the public perception of the status of defense minister: Another surprise for Abe’s new cabinet is Taro Kono being appointed as the new defense minister after his stint as foreign minister. Most observers seem to agree that this is a “win” for the Ministry of Defense. Historically, the foreign minister post has been regarded as the “higher” and therefore “more desirable” position for politicians who hold ambitions for the prime ministership within the LDP. The Ministry of Defense only gained full ministerial status in 2007, it has thus been considered “junior ministry” and the defense minister also a junior post. But Abe’s appointment of Kono to defense minister after his stint as foreign minister can be interpreted as a message that, as far as Abe is concerned, the Ministry of Defense has equal status to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Also, Kono, prior to his cabinet appointment, has been long known to have invested in parliamentary ties between Japan and South Korea. With South Korea having announced its intention to withdraw from an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan, Kono’s appointment as the defense minister can also be a subtle message on part of Abe that the window for dialogue on this issue is still open.

With less than 24 months remaining in office, it is worth closely monitoring how Abe’s new cabinet appointments play out. The first test will be the results of the U.S.-Japan bilateral trade negotiation talk, which was originally anticipated to be signed when Abe meets Trump in New York on September 25, but now will not be signed until October.