A Fine Mateship with a Fickle Friend: Morrison and Trump

At present, the success of any visit to Washington by a country’s leader can be judged simply by how well U.S. President Donald Trump sticks to the script, and how restrained he is on Twitter after the foreign leader leaves.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison made an official visit to Washington in mid-September and managed to not only score high on both these criteria, but he also garnered something other U.S allies have struggled to evoke from Trump: gratuitous praise. Trump referred to Morrison as a “man of titanium” (a Trumpified reference to George W. Bush dubbing John Howard a “man of steel”).

The trip also provided Morrison with the honor of being the second foreign leader – after France’s President Emmanuel Macron – to receive a state dinner at the White House during Trump’s presidency. That Morrison was able to gain for Australia such a privileged – and currently rare – White House event speaks to the success of Canberra’s Trump strategy. While the leaders of other U.S allies have found themselves on the wrong side of Trump’s impulses, barring an initial terse phone call with Morrison’s predecessor, Malcolm Turnbull, Australia has done incredibly well at keeping Trump placated without compromising Australia’s interests.

This is a fine line to walk as it has involved finding a way to maintain a complementary approach to the U.S president without submitting Australia to his worldview. As a trading nation, Australia is reliant on the preservation of international trading norms. Canberra much prefers engaging in multilateralism than bilateralism (at least with larger countries), and requires a United States that is engaged and present in the Indo-Pacific. The latter has mostly held together, but Trump’s disinterest in stepping in to push Japan and South Korea to get along demonstrates a fraying around the edges of U.S regional engagement.

This is a concern for Australia not only because Japan and South Korea are two of the country’s largest trading partners and there may be knock-on effects to Australia’s economic interests from their trade dispute, but because it indicates that the U.S-built alliance system on which Australia is reliant is weakening. While the hope among Australian policymakers is that Trump is an aberration, it cannot be guaranteed that “normalcy” will return to the White House after Trump leaves office. It also cannot be guaranteed that distressed relationships like that between Tokyo and Seoul can be easily repaired.

While Australia’s ability to walk the tight-rope that is Trump’s whims and outbursts has been exemplary, maintaining this balancing act for a second Trump term would be a phenomenal feat. For now, however, Morrison seems to be doing a good job. While Morrison’s own idiosyncrasies tend to provoke Australia’s “cultural cringe” (the elite complex about the country’s lack of sophistication), the prime minister has been able to use his personal style to Australia’s advantage with Trump.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in a phone call with Morrison last year Trump threatened to place tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum in response to an increased market share of Australian aluminum in the United States. Yet Morrison was able to talk Trump down and maintain Australia’s exemption from tariffs that the U.S. president placed on other key allies, like the European Union and Canada.

Morrison’s previous role as minister for immigration has also been an advantage to the relationship. Trump is attracted to Australia’s tough stance on irregular maritime migration, seeing this as analogous to his desire to build a wall along the border with Mexico. The three word slogan of “stop the boats” occupies the same political space for Morrison’s conservative coalition as “build the wall” does for the Republicans in the United States. As discomfiting as this may be, it has bought Morrison some added credibility that has allowed Australia to weather Trump’s natural suspicion toward alliances.

While the two political leaders were able to celebrate the shared “mateship” of both their respective countries and themselves, Morrison’s visit remained an uneasy spectacle. The responsibility of superpowers is to be predictable, yet Trump’s modus operandi is unpredictability. This makes his presidency deeply unsettling to Australian policymakers, who wake up each morning praying that Australia hasn’t been the subject of one of Trump’s Twitter tirades overnight. Despite this, the alliance with the United States is fundamental to Australia’s security and based on enough good will throughout the U.S government in its entirely that it can withstand any shocks that Trump could create. For now the personal bond that Morrison has been able to forge with Trump is acting as an excellent shock absorber.