Under Threat: The Impact of Climate Change on South Asia

Climate change is the biggest challenge the world faces; it is especially acute in South Asia. Home to nearly 1.8 billion people, most of whom reside in rural areas in the region, the impact of climate change is staggering. Forecasts show islands, such as India’s Lakshadweep Islands, and island nations, particularly the Maldives, face among the worst consequences of climate change due to rising sea levels, aggressively changing storm patterns, and flooding. Climate change could result in the displacement of a significant portion of South Asia’s population, the destruction of the livelihoods of a majority of the labor force in the region due to its impact on agriculture, and a stifling of the economic and human development of the region’s countries.

Human Displacement 

Among the most alarming effects of climate change in South Asia will be the impact on human security. A study by the World Bank considered the impact of climate change on South Asia under two scenarios – a “climate-sensitive” scenario, in which South Asian countries take some collective action to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, and a “carbon-intensive” scenario, in which no such limits are placed on emissions. The study found that, on a regional level, a carbon-intensive scenario will affect the lives of close to 800 million people. Of those 800 million people, the study estimates that more than 80 percent would see their living standards “adversely affected” by climate change.

The study goes on to break down the impact on a country-by-country basis. Sri Lanka would be the most affected, with living standards 7 percent worse than they would have been if they experienced the same climate as the present. Bangladesh follows with a 6.7 percent decline in living standards, followed by India and Pakistan at less than 3 percent. Data from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center in Geneva further shows that, in 2017 alone, 2.8 million people were displaced in South Asia as a result of sudden onset disasters, which are progressively worsening as a result of climate change. At a country level, Bangladesh alone will likely see 9.6 million people displaced due to climate change by 2050, while an estimated 464,000 people will be displaced every year in Pakistan due to disaster-related events.  

Threat to Agriculture 

Climate change will also directly affect the agricultural sector in South Asia, which employs at a majority of workers in India, Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bhutan. The International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that average yields for wheat, rice, and maize will decrease by 50 percent, 17 percent, and 6 percent respectively by 2050 when compared with 2000 crop yield levels. This means that South Asia will face a decrease in average calorie availability of 15 percent as compared to a hypothetical scenario in which current climate conditions held until 2050. Furthermore, the number of malnourished children, expected to be 52 million under a “no climate change” scenario in 2050, will increase to 59 million children due to the impact of climate change.

The impact on farmer incomes will be even more severe. India’s 2018 Economic Survey found that “farm incomes will be lower by around 12 percent on an average in the coming years, and unirrigated areas will be the most severely affected, with potential losses amounting to 18 percent of annual revenue.” In Pakistan, the rise in temperature of up to 2 degrees Celsius is likely to reduce agricultural productivity by as much as 10 percent by 2040, while farmers in Nepal have noted that they lost as much as 20 percent of their expected production due to droughts exacerbated by climate change.

Losses in Economic and Human Development 

Given these effects on overall human security and the agricultural sector, climate change will have a significant economic impact on countries in the region. Climate change is likely to slow development considerably and require significant additional investment in climate mitigation techniques. The Asian Development Bank found that South Asia as a whole would lose “1.8 percent of its annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050.” Without any intervening strategies, this loss is likely to increase to “8.8 percent by 2100.” Even if climate change is limited to the internationally-agreed upon 2 degrees Celsius mark, South Asia will still see a 1.3 percent reduction in GDP by 2050. 

Moreover, as seen above, human development indicators will also be seriously affected. To mitigate the impact of climate change on child malnutrition, the International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that the region will require an additional investment of $1.5 billion. Mortality and morbidity rates too are likely to increase to concerning levels, with increases in cases of dengue, malaria, and diarrhea. In worst case scenarios, total morbidity rates from these diseases by 2050 could reach over 52 million, while mortality rates could reach over 30,000. 

When it comes to GDP per capita for individual countries, the damage is also quite widespread. The World Bank finds that, without any steps being taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions by countries in South Asia, India’s per capita income could decrease by 9.8 percent, compared to a “no climate change” scenario. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka fare even worse, with a drop in per capita GDP of 14.4 percent and 10 percent respectively. Analyzed annually, the Asian Development Bank argues that all three of these countries could see a loss in GDP of between 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent each year until 2050. 

Climate change presents a wide-ranging threat to South Asia, from human security to food and income security as well as the development of the region as a whole. While countries in the region have adopted climate change mitigation plans, a sense of urgency about this threat continues to loom over India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives. There is scope to do more, particularly given the need for these countries to find ways to take collective action to combat the threat of climate change. If they prove unable, it is the 1.8 billion people living in South Asia who will suffer.