Letter

Welcome to the December issue of The Diplomat Magazine.

“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon ‘em.” So wrote William Shakespeare over 400 years ago, and the adage rings true today – for countries as well as people. Greatness can be a product of external factors, particularly in an increasingly interconnected world where states are left to make the best they can of circumstances beyond their control.

As the global warming crisis comes to a head, China is increasingly looked to as a leader (and, some hope, a savior) despite having little appetite for that role. Across the strait, Taiwan is now the testing ground for Chinese Communist Party electoral influence campaigns – a dubious distinction Taiwan would much rather not have. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, prides itself on its role in the nuclear disarmament movement, but that possibility only fell into its lap thanks to a quirk of post-Soviet borders. Speaking of the former USSR, a lapsed U.S.-Soviet treaty now could transform Japan’s place in the U.S. alliance network. All across Asia, we find states having potentially pivotal roles being “thrust upon ‘em” whether they like it or not.

Iza Ding, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, speaks to this idea through the lens of China’s leadership in the fight against climate change. China, like most countries around the world, has a spotted-at-best track record on environmental issues. But with the world warming like never before, taking swift action is now an existential issue. Comparing China to the iconic Star Wars ruffian-turned-hero, Ding writes: “Like Han Solo, China has been thrust into leading a fight it was not ready for. Can it lead? If so, how?

Next, Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, previews the dark and complex reality of Chinese influence operations as Taiwan heads toward critical elections in January. As Hsiao notes, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long tried to influence the political process in Taiwan. Beijing’s present efforts “have become noticeably more subtle and sophisticated, but no less destabilizing.” In what ways is Beijing trying to influence Taiwan’s democracy? And can the island withstand the CCP’s machinations?

In August, Kazakhstan became the 33rd country to have ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The Soviet Union’s first nuclear test, and more than 450 in total, exploded over and under the Kazakh steppe. In the years that followed, Kazakhstan made a number of important practical contributions to global efforts to build a world free of nuclear weapons. But some have argued that Kazakhstan’s ratification of the nuclear ban is marred by the fact that its activities – most importantly continued Russian missile defense testing on leased Kazakh land – violate parts of the treaty. Dauren Aben, a senior research fellow at the Eurasian Research Institute in Almaty, explains Nur-Sultan’s position and the nuances of nuclear debates in Kazakhstan.

Then our own Senior Editor Ankit Panda explains the impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on the U.S.-Japan alliance. After 32 years, Panda writes, the United States is once again free to develop ground-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. But that will only matter for Asia if a willing host can be found in the region – and Japan is perhaps the most likely candidate. Will the end of the INF Treaty inadvertently become a game-changer for the U.S.-Japan alliance?