Why Does the Bougainville Referendum Matter?

The referendum on Bougainville obtaining independence from Papua New Guinea (PNG)

began on November 23. Polling stations will also be made available for eligible people on the PNG mainland, in the Solomon Islands, and in Australia. Given the region’s terrain and overwhelming rural and remote population, the process will be conducted over a two week period, extending past publication.

The promise of a referendum formed one of the central components to the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA), alongside greater autonomy for the island, and the disposal of weaponry. The BPA brought to an end a civil war that lasted from 1998 to 1997, and resulted in the deaths of 20,000 people.

The vote represents a pivotal moment for the island and its neighbors, but the end of voting will likely only mark the start of a larger process.

Bougainville’s position within PNG has always been awkward. Bougainville island is geographically and ecologically part of the archipelago that forms the Solomon Islands. The archipelago became contested under the colonial endeavours of both the British and Germans, and while most of the Solomon Islands came under British control in 1900, Germany maintained its hold on Bougainville. However, during World War I, the island was occupied by Australia, which subsequently administered it within the Territory of New Guinea. The island unilaterally declared independence as the Republic of the North Solomons several days before PNG gained its independence from Australia in 1975. Yet the republic was never recognized by the international community, and was absorbed into the newly sovereign PNG within six months.

In 1988, tensions derived from this uneasy relationship were funnelled into a dispute involving the Panguna Copper mine, operated by Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio-Tinto. Grievances over the distribution of royalties and the environmental damage the mine was creating led to a revolt by the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) against the national PNG government, and sparked the subsequent decade-long civil war. A truce was called in 1997, with peace talks sponsored by New Zealand beginning in 1998. A peace agreement, signed in 2001, created the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG). This made Bougainville the only PNG province to have its own legislature; the governors of PNG’s other 21 provinces all sit within the national parliament.

The question that is being asked of Bougainvilleans is an odd one in that it offers no status quo option. Instead it asks: Do you agree for Bougainville to have: (1) Greater Autonomy (2) Independence. The result is expected to be an overwhelming endorsement of independence, although per the BPA the result is only designed to create the impetus for negotiations with the central PNG government. This process of negotiating Bougainville’s withdrawal from PNG could take several years.

This is time that the island will also need to put in place the necessary components of a sovereign state.

Although the autonomy that Bougainville was granted by the BPA has enabled the government to develop some of the required infrastructure to transition toward sovereignty, at present Bougainville’s government derives only 14 percent of its budget from internal revenue generation, and would be heavily reliant on the aid and good will of other states to assist in creating the necessary administrative capacity.

The financial demands of a sovereign state may also tempt the Bougainville government to turn back to the island’s natural resources in search of revenue. It is estimated that the Panguna mine retains around $58 billion worth of copper and gold, making the reopening of the mine an almost irresistible prospect for the revenue-starved Bougainville government. Yet this would require deft handling from the government, and a negotiated agreement between itself and any mining companies that was deemed legitimate and beneficial by the island’s people.

For PNG, the prospect of losing one of its provinces has wider implications for its own continued legitimacy, and the integrity of the rest of PNG. There is the potential that other regions of the country that have their own designs on greater autonomy will be emboldened by the Bougainville vote. In mid-2018 the PNG government of Peter O’Neill created an agreement with the governors of New Ireland, East New Britain, and Enga that would begin the process of devolving powers to these provinces. But this push toward decentralization could ignite greater demands for autonomy, rather than placate them.

As the regional power, Australia will undoubtedly be watching these developments closely. Canberra will

most likely play a role in ensuring the negotiations between Boungainville and PNG that will follow the referendum vote are conducted in good faith and do not lead to unrest. For this, the government in Port Moresby will need to accept the outcome and legitimacy of the vote (something that has been in doubt), and the Bougainville public will need to remain informed on the negotiation process and its prospective timeframe. The hope will be that the movement toward the world’s newest state doesn’t immediately create a failed one.