Central Asian Presidents’ Second Consultative Meeting Zooms in on Water, Trade, and Regional Cooperation

The second Consultative Meeting of Central Asian presidents took place on November 29. Originally planned for April 2019, the meeting was postponed. No official reason was given, though the surprise March 2019 resignation of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is a likely culprit. Concerns appeared that the budding exclusively regional meeting might cease to continue entirely. Tashkent’s announcement of the possibility of its joining Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union a few months ago exacerbated these concerns with Tashkent’s possible loss of interest in its immediate neighbors in favor of the greater regional organization.

The second regional meeting was different from the first, which took place in Nur-Sultan (then called Astana) in the spring of 2018, with the added participation of Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. Berdimuhamedov is usually finicky about regional meetings. Turkmenistan is an avowedly neutral country and approaches anything smacking of an alliance as questionable. His participation made the 2019 meeting truly regional. The participation of Nursultan Nazarbayev instead of current Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, however, meant that so far the five sitting Central Asian presidents have yet to meet together in this format.

What emerged from each president’s official statement delivered at the meeting is the message of significance and seriousness of regional cooperation for them. The leaders of the Central Asian countries unquestionably see value in regional cooperation and are ready to reinforce this. One area in which the countries expressed their desire to cooperate more is trade, as increasing regional trade was mentioned in every official statement delivered by the presidents. Kyrgyzstan’s President Sooronbay Jeenbekov brought up trade the most. He reminded the meeting that trade among the Central Asian countries was low and proposed greater trade initiatives with countries in the region.

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev focused heavily on launching various joint economic projects with a greater emphasis on the region. He emphasized the vision of embracing regional benefits when countries negotiate individual projects related to trade, energy, and tourism. One regional transportation project that was brought up several times by more than one president was the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad project, which has also been increasingly embraced by Central Asian countries.

All leaders except Nazarbayev spoke about their worries regarding regional water issues. They alluded to the reduction of water sources against the background of increasing regional demands. Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmon reminded the group that two-thirds of the region’s water resources make their start in his country, but that disappearing glaciers inTajikistan were a worrisome trend. Jeenbekov also mentioned that the remaining one-third of the region’s water resources originated in his country and proposed a plan to counter water issues by setting up a water management system to compensate Bishkek. Berdimuhamedov proposed the involvement of international organizations in the preservation and usage of regional water, while Mirziyoyev offered to set up an Aral Sea trust fund.

At the post-meeting briefing delivered by Mirziyoyev, he finally brought up geopolitics. Without calling out Russia, he spoke of increasing closeness of the regional countries that was not directed against any country. At the same time, he said that the regional closeness was an unstoppable process and Central Asian countries were increasingly dealing with regional issues with a regional mindset. He also reassured leaders that the consultative meetings will be a reoccurring event without turning into a regional organization.

The first and second regional meetings have so far been symbolic, where presidents catch up with each other. The meetings have given an opportunity to presidents to channel  their visions for the region they wish to build together. The decades-long regional trade, water, and transportation issues will continue to dominate these meetings. The presidents have stayed away from bringing up disagreeable bilateral and regional matters, leaving them to bilateral dealings. So far regional issues are far from being solved in these venues, but the meetings do little harm to hopes for the future.