What Does 2020 Hold for the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte?

Despite the landslide victory of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s party in the 2019 midterm elections, he still faces several serious challenges that could potentially undermine his government in 2020. The Southeast Asian country next holds general elections in 2022.

Duterte’s strong showing in midterm elections last year, following the presidential election victory that propelled him to power in 2016, reinforced the reality that he remains popular in the Philippines. But those victories also may have obscured the challenges he faces and will likely continue to face in his remaining years in office.

Leading those challenges are allegations of corruption and human rights abuses. For instance, most prominently, Duterte stands accused of abetting crimes against humanity through his aggressive “war against drugs,” which has killed more than 5,000 drug suspects. Human rights groups say Duterte’s security forces made arbitrary arrests and engaged in extrajudicial killings that primarily targeted the poor.

These issues are likely to continue to haunt Duterte into 2020. The United Nations is expected to conclude its report on the human rights situation in the Philippines in June 2020. The International Criminal Court is also pursuing an investigation based on complaints submitted by relatives of the victims of the bloody anti-drug campaign. The result of these high-profile inquiries will be released this year, which could raise greater international attention on the government’s dismal human rights record.

Adding to that chorus of criticisms is the rising domestic opposition against Duterte by key political figures. Leading the opposition is Vice President Leni Robredo, who has shown her willingness and capability to hit out against Duterte as she did with his anti-drug program. Another prominent official who has consistently attacked the excesses of the government is Senator Leila de Lima, who has been jailed on trumped-up charges. Her unjust incarceration has been condemned by legislators in the United States. In 2019, she became an icon of democracy for her continuing defiance despite her detention, and this is unlikely to change in 2020.

Beyond these figures, other important sources of opposition are rights groups as well as the press. Duterte’s tirades against the press have been relentless and have included supporting the filing of cases against an independent news website and calling for the nonrenewal of the legislative franchise of a leading TV network. But as the case of Maria Ressa of Rappler showed in 2019, this has backfired to some extent because it has led to more global scrutiny of the assault on media freedom in the Philippines and also only solidified parts of the media in its opposition against Duterte. This is also unlikely to change in 2020.

2020 could also see continued scrutiny of some areas of Duterte’s appeal. A case in point is his claim that he is an anti-establishment figure undercutting the power and greed of oligarchs. For instance, he has cited the country’s water crisis to malign big businesses and warned that he will nullify existing contracts with onerous provisions. While his most loyal supporters may believe he has noble intentions, to others it looks like Duterte is merely trying to bully some companies in order to favor his cronies. And when married with other tendencies, including his previous support for the family of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, it looks more like a creeping return of authoritarianism than a surge of populism.

Some of Duterte’s anti-establishment tendencies also risk antagonizing the business sector, which could destabilize his presidency and affect the Philippine economy. As it is, his ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program has not been making as many inroads as anticipated, and some of the other risky gambles he has made, such as outreach to China, have yet to pay off.

Even on the security side, despite Duterte’s pledges and efforts to crack down on drugs and insurgencies, many of these campaigns have not been successful or are still uncertain. Duterte’s political dream of establishing federalism is not even discussed anymore. His efforts to wipe out communist rebels have hit a standstill despite everything from potential talks to military campaigns being tried. The lone success is the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) last year, but even here, it is still early days and 2020 will prove a critical year in seeing how things play out without the aid of policies such as martial law, which was lifted with the start of the new year.

With Duterte facing continued allegations, rising opposition, and increasing scrutiny on his far-from-impressive policy record, 2020 could shape up to be a tough year for the president. If these factors coalesce, he could not only undermine himself but also benefit the opposition by uniting various groups against his government. It is important to keep in mind that the history of Philippine politics shows a tendency for a greater coalescing of opposition against the sitting president the closer that the president gets to the end of their single six-year term. Key events in 2020, including the annual commemoration of the EDSA Revolution that ousted the Marcos dictatorship in 1986, will continue to be important to watch to assess how Duterte fares.

If Duterte can get a few policy successes under his belt and avoid provoking more of his opponents, his prospects may not be so dire. But 2020 is a critical year for Duterte. He can either use his remaining time as president to build up and defend his legacy in a disciplined way, or he can continue to attack his perceived enemies while dismissing calls for accountability, justice, and human rights protection.