Parsing Japan’s Response to the Coronavirus Outbreak

On February 22, the U.S. Department of State raised its travel advisory for Japan from Level 1 (exercise normal precaution) to Level 2 (exercise increased caution). The announcement was consistent with a decision made by the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), which also raised its travel advisory for Japan to Alert Level 2 (exercise enhanced precautions). The cause of concern is, of course, the worsening outbreak of the novel coronavirus strain officially known as COVID-19, which first appeared in China late last year..

More and more countries and regions are issuing travel warnings for Japan. As of February 24, 10 governments have issued such warnings, recommending that people postpone travel to Japan. While no country has denied entry to Japanese citizens or those who have travelled recently to Japan, some countries have already begun to take precautions. For example, some Pacific island countries now require that a traveler who has been to Japan must stay in a third country for a certain period before entering. 

As COVID-19 continues to spread in Japan, with no sign of a peak in sight, Japan has become the subject of heavy criticism. The biggest criticism against Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his government is the lack of a sense of urgency in its response back when the coronavirus was first breaking out in China. Starting from the initial hesitance to restrict the entry of Chinese travellers (supposedly because Tokyo did not want to ruin the prospects for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anticipated state visit in April), the Japanese government’s response has lagged far behind the unfolding situation. By the time Abe convened the first meeting to discuss his government’s response at the cabinet level and emphasized the importance of preventing the spread of COVID-19 on January 30, his government was already playing catch-up. 

Abe’s government has also faced a wave of criticism over the decision to keep passengers of a cruise ship onboard in close quarters for a prolonged period of time, which only facilitated the further spread of the coronavirus among the passengers. Worse, the Japanese health authority allowed their staff to examine potential coronavirus patients without any protective gear and let them return to work without screening.

As of February 24, Japan had 850 confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. Of those, only 14 cases involved people who were evacuated from China, the epicenter of the outbreak. Most of the cases, 691, were passengers aboard the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which was forced to wait under quarantine in Yokohama Port for two weeks. But there are more than 100 cases whose infection route within Japan remains unknown. The government’s inability to trace the infection pathway and its less-than-desirable job in communicating the current situation, including what Japanese government has been doing and plans to do to contain the virus, only fuels local anxiety. The end result is that the crisis has lowered confidence in Japan’s health authority both domestically and internationally. 

When the new coronavirus initially broke out, the lack of information coming out of China, in addition to its response, came under intense international criticism. Some even wondered if it would undermine Xi’s leadership status. Similarly, the Japanese government’s mismanagement of the outbreak is undermining Abe’s credibility as a strong leader who is capable of responding to a crisis. Some media opinion polls now show the approval rating for Abe dropping by as many as 8 points in a month.

The previous Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government saw its downfall after harsh criticism over its response to the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. Should the Abe government continue to be perceived as not doing its best to contain the spread of COVID-19, it could accelerate the post-Abe leadership transition within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). 

On February 24, a panel of medical experts issued a statement that the next one to two weeks will be the most critical window for Japan, determining whether the country will see successful containment of the virus or an explosive outbreak. That, ironically, will also likely be the most critical period for Abe’s political future.