Where Are US-Cambodia Relations at 70?

In early April, the United States returned two centuries-old, valuable Khmer statues to Cambodia that Washington had seized in a previous trafficking raid. U.S. Ambassador to Cambodia Patrick Murphy noted that the return was a reminder of how much the two countries have achieved as they commemorate the 70th anniversary of bilateral relations this year. Murphy’s comments reflected ongoing efforts by both sides to mend previously strained ties with the diplomatic milestone in 2020.

Contemporary U.S.-Cambodia relations have been through their share of ups and downs since diplomatic relations were re-established in 1993 after previous years where Cambodia had seen genocide under the Khmer Rouge, occupation, and civil war. While Hun Sen’s premiership has remained a rather remarkable constant during the entire post-1993 period, ties have been through periods of suspension and downgrading due to other variables including the state of democracy and human rights in Cambodia and the approaches of different U.S. administrations toward Phnom Penh. 

The latest downturn in ties began around 2017, when, ahead of an impending general election in 2018, Hun Sen mounted a new opposition crackdown, cut off engagements with Washington, and deepened ties with Beijing. But since the election, which saw Hun Sen predictably emerge victorious, the focus has been on how ties could once again begin to warm. Cambodia needs to repair the country’s foreign relationships with Western nations and diversify its engagements and the United States wants to foster closer ties with Southeast Asian states amid intensifying U.S.-China competition.  

We began to see some efforts to this end in 2019, with the appointment of Murphy – a diplomat with longstanding experience across Southeast Asia – as the new U.S. ambassador to Cambodia, as well as the exchange of letters between Hun Sen and U.S. President Donald Trump. Late last year diplomats on both sides indicated that 2020 presented an additional opportunity to make further inroads in U.S.-Cambodia ties, with the 70th anniversary of U.S.-Cambodia relations and other regional initiatives in the works including the U.S.-ASEAN Summit in Last Vegas.  

There have been some encouraging signs of better ties being realized in 2020. Even though barb-trading has continued, including as a result of the trial of opposition leader Kem Sokha and the deportation of Cambodians from the United States, the commemoration events held this year – which the U.S. Embassy had said would be centered around a different theme each month, including agriculture, youth education, people to-people ties, and democracy –  have allowed both sides to focus on the broader foundation for ties. Officials on both sides, including Murphy, have also sought to reinforce the message that differences that continue to exist on some issues should not detract from selective collaboration. 

And while the outbreak of the global coronavirus pandemic has created challenges for ties – it caused the cancelation of the Las Vegas summit, where Hun Sen and Trump would have met directly – it has also brought about new opportunities, with a case in point being Hun Sen allowing the MS Westerdam cruise ship to dock in Cambodia in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis, which allowed U.S. diplomats to secure the Americans onboard.

But at the same time, one should not underestimate the challenges that remain either. From Washington’s perspective, many of the realities in Cambodian domestic politics and foreign policy that had led to the previous downturn in U.S.-Cambodia relations remain – be it the poor treatment of the political opposition or concerns about aspects of ties with China – and Washington will at least need to see reassurances on some fronts if relations are to improve. In a U.S. context, this will play out in a contested manner that involves not just the preferences of the executive branch, but perspectives from Congress, the perceptions of other nongovernmental actors, and the fluid situation in Cambodia. 

For Phnom Penh, one can expect some level of hedging as the Hun Sen government recalibrates ties with the Trump administration but also adopts a bit of a wait-and-see approach as well depending on how things play out in the upcoming U.S. elections in November. That could help reset ties if current terms prove unfavorable. Cambodia will also be viewing its ties with Washington from the broader perspective of its foreign alignments writ large, including other relationships it is looking to improve (for example, ties with the European Union), as well as continuing speculation about succession dynamics away from Hun Sen in the future.  

That does not mean that we won’t see more continued symbolic and substantive efforts at improving ties as both countries commemorate the 70th anniversary this year, such as the statue return that we saw in early April, which took place at the National Museum of Cambodia. But it does mean that as we see these developments, it will be important to keep the broader dynamics in mind to assess what it means substantively for the future trajectory of the bilateral relationship.