Australia and the Art of Being a Creative Middle Power

Australia could be seen as having had a significant diplomatic victory in mid-May, with the World Health Assembly (WHA) formally adopting a resolution calling for an independent review into the origins and the initial handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Australia had been a vocal advocate of the idea for over a month leading up to the motion being passed, and its unanimous approval was vindication for putting itself out in front on the issue. 

However, Canberra’s advocacy has come with a predictable blowback from China, whose sensitivities interpreted Australia’s position as an attempt to smear the country, rather than a necessary inquiry into what has become a globally devastating event. The inquiry is vital in order to prevent a future pandemic from happening, regardless of where it may originate. 

Before signing on to the idea themselves, China’s ambassador to Australia threatened that if Australia persisted in calls for an inquiry, Chinese consumers could shun Australian education services, tourism, and wine. China subsequently slapped an 80 percent tariff on Australian barley and banned beef exports from several abattoirs. 

In terms of its tactics, Canberra probably did initially get too far ahead of itself, failing to find a coalition of partners to chorus its assessment of a need for such an inquiry. Yet currently finding reliable partners who do not feel like they have to tip-toe around Beijing is difficult, and the United States is failing to project a consistent and sober position on issues concerning China, or other areas concerning the global commons.

This is making the Australian government very wary. Australian intelligence agencies had been highly skeptical of attempts by officials in the United States to link the coronavirus to a laboratory in Wuhan. Their concern was that if the rhetoric around the need for an inquiry became too inflammatory, or theories about the virus’ origins became too wild, it would undermine the legitimacy of the inquiry, and also hamper the ability to get China to fully cooperate with it. A measured, reasonable, but firm position was required.

The stark lesson for Australia is that – at present – the United States cannot be relied upon to demonstrate consistent leadership on issues of global importance. And this vacuum being left by the U.S is one that China now seems willing to fill. However, China’s objectives would not be to act as the guarantor of a set of rules that are mutually beneficial to all states (or at least as much as possible), but to establish a new set of global norms built around compliance to Beijing’s desires. That something Australia would be very uncomfortable with.

This means that middle powers like Australia will need to take a more active role in global decision-making, often having to take the lead in issues of global significance like a COVID-19 inquiry where previously they may have waited for the United States to act. This means being a more active diplomatic player, being able to persuade other states to form coalitions and to use that collective weight to responsibly tackle issues that are globally important. 

Australia has had its reputation greatly enhanced during the pandemic. Domestically, it has handled the crisis incredibly well. Its response was fast and ahead of global trends, and its politicians were able to put aside partisan and ideological instincts to implement processes to contain the spread of the virus, limit its casualties, and quickly implement measures to ease the financial burdens on its citizenry. This will buy the country some significant trust from other states should it wish to pursue an enduring position as a creative strategic organizer. 

Of course, there will be costs in continuing to pursue a position as a creative middle power. As the world’s primary revisionist mover, Beijing will not take kindly to any attempts to defend the global norms it sees as impediments to its pursuit of power. However, China’s attempts at economic coercion are now expected by Canberra, and the Australian government may simply develop domestic strategies to cushion the impact on local industries. It is increasingly unlikely that the Australian government will be intimated by China. Canberra seems to have made the firm decision that to do so would only legitimize such behavior. In this Canberra will be hoping to set an example for other states to follow.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a brutal awakening to the common dilemmas that all states face. Australia’s decision to firmly pursue the idea of an inquiry into the pandemic’s origins and initial handling should hopefully now produce some critical information to prevent another such outbreak from causing similar devastation. However, the virus has also presented Australia with an opportunity to consolidate its reputation for competence, and use its capabilities to position itself as a trustworthy and globally minded state.